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The 2016 RotoViz Scouting Index

Building on an idea from last year, we’ll try to aggregate prospect rankings from some of the higher profile sites. We’ll update this occasionally to get a sense of whether a prospect’s 2016 NFL Draft status is heading up or down. And we’ll use this index as a market proxy against which we’ll make our own value judgments. Along the way, we’ll have fun comparing our stats-and-metrics based methods against the more traditional techniques used by the broader market.

First a brief note about the methodology. I settled on six sites from which to gather prospect rankings: CBS/NFL Draft Scout, Rotoworld/Josh Norris, Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and NFL Draft Geek. That’s not a scientifically determined list. My criteria were (a) free, (b) rankings listed in an easy-to-export format,1 (c) well known. To arrive at the score for each prospect, here’s what I did: I gave each player the inverse of their rank on each site. So if a given site ranks 10 prospects at a position, the No. 1 prospect gets 10 points, and the No. 10 prospect gets one point. Then I added up the points for that player from each site. The result is that prospects get credit for being ranked more often. To continue the example, player X is ranked No. 1 (10 points) on one site, and is unranked on all other sites. Final score? 10 points. Player Y is ranked No. 5 (six points) on all six sites. That’s six points on each of six sites, for a total of 36 points. This methodology helps assign a value to being ranked frequently, as well as highly. Don’t compare scores across positions, since a different number of players are ranked at each position. Just focus on within-position differences and changes over time. I included each player’s average rank for reference, but our analysis will focus on the scores. Finally, I’ll only present players ranked on multiple sites, although players ranked on a single site will still be scored. On to the rankings. Let us know in the comments who you’d like to see written up.

Quarterbacks

PLAYER TIMES RANKED AVE RANK POS SCORE
Jared Goff 6 1.7 116
Connor Cook 6 3.2 107
Christian Hackenberg 6 4.7 98
Paxton Lynch 5 1.8 96
Cardale Jones 4 3.8 69
Carson Wentz 3 6.0 45
Jacoby Brissett 3 6.0 45
Kevin Hogan 3 8.0 39
Dak Prescott 2 6.0 30
Brandon Doughty 2 9.0 24
Cody Kessler 2 10.0 22

Running Backs

PLAYER TIMES RANKED AVE RANK POS SCORE
Ezekiel Elliott 6 1.0 162
Derrick Henry 6 2.0 156
Devontae Booker 6 4.5 141
Paul Perkins 3 4.3 71
Alex Collins 3 5.0 69
Kenneth Dixon 3 5.3 68
C.J. Prosise 3 6.0 66
James Conner 2 6.0 44
Kareem Hunt 2 6.5 43
Kenyan Drake 2 6.5 43
Jonathan Williams 2 7.5 41

Wide Receivers

PLAYER TIMES RANKED AVE RANK POS SCORE
Laquon Treadwell 6 1.7 254
Corey Coleman 5 3.0 205
Michael Thomas 5 3.6 202
Tyler Boyd 5 4.2 199
Pharoh Cooper 5 7.2 184
Demarcus Robinson 5 10.0 170
Josh Doctson 4 3.3 163
Rashard Higgins 4 9.8 137
Sterling Shepard 4 10.5 134
De’Runnya Wilson 4 11.0 132
Mike Williams 3 4.3 119
Will Fuller 3 6.3 113
Leonte Carroo 3 11.3 98
Travin Dural 2 7.5 73
Braxton Miller 2 10.5 67
Tajae Sharpe 2 12.0 64
Aaron Burbridge 2 16.5 55
Corey Davis 2 23.0 42

Tight Ends

PLAYER TIMES RANKED AVE RANK POS SCORE
O.J. Howard 6 2.2 101
Hunter Henry 6 2.5 99
Evan Engram 5 2.8 81
Jake Butt 3 3.0 48
Bryce Williams 3 8.0 33
Nick Vannett 2 3.5 31
Jerell Adams 2 8.0 22
Steven Scheu 2 8.5 21
Kyle Carter 2 9.5 19
Kivon Cartwright 2 11.0 16

  1. Seriously, if your “Big Board” is a slideshow…GTFO.  (back)

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