Welcome back everyone. Hopefully you’re having a great week DFS week so far, but if not, make sure you’re taking advantage of all the daily fantasy basketball tools we’ve got here at Rotoviz. We have write-ups like this every day, the On the Daily Podcast, and the Game Splits App all available to help you build your lineups.
With the regular season coming down the home stretch, I think its important to take a look at the types of game you’re playing and how much you’re putting in play. Most of the casual players have already called it quits, and as a result cash games have been super tough recently. You routinely need at least 300 points to cash on FanDuel, and often significantly more. There are also more injuries and more teams “experimenting with rotations”1 so its harder to predict with certainty how many minutes certain players will see on a given night. As a result, I’m transitioning my game to mostly GPPs for the remainder of the season, especially on slates of less then 10 games.
On to tonight’s picks!
Steph Curry vs OKC – $11,000 on FD, $10,800 on DK
Curry is currently considered probable for this game, and as long as he’s able to suit up he’s my top PG option tonight. While Russell Westbrook may have a slightly higher floor, no one can match Curry’s ceiling. The Warriors have the highest implied team total of the night, and the last time these teams met Curry scored almost 60 fantasy points with a bum ankle.
Deron Williams vs Sac – $5,600 on FD, $5,800 on DK
If not for the game between OKC and Golden State, this game would be getting a lot more DFS love. Sacramento plays at the fastest pace in the league, which allows a lot of opportunities for opposing players to rack up fantasy points against them. Williams has been a little bit boom or bust recently, but with Raymond Felton dealing with a sprained ankle Williams could see a couple additional minutes in this one. Sacramento is allowing the fifth most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Also Considered- Russell Westbrook @ GSW- $11,000 on FD, $11,200 on DK, Tony Parker @ NOP – $5,300 on FD, $5,200 on DK
Klay Thompson vs OKC – $7,300 on FD, $7,900 on DK
When Klay gets hot, fade at your own risk. He’s scored at least 38.9 fantasy points in four of his last five games, including 42+ in his last matchup with the Warriors. I think that a lot of people on FanDuel will try to pair all three of the big superstars in this game, which could leave a guy like Klay Thompson underowned.
Eric Gordon vs SA – $5,300 on FD, $5,300 on DK
Gordon has played two games since he’s returned from injury. One monster against the Timberwolves and then a clunker against the Rockets. That last matchup was only yesterday, and with Gordon having a tough matchup against the Spurs tonight I think most people will be avoiding him. Gordon has the upside we’re looking for in tournaments and he should continue to serve as a big part of the Pelicans offense with all their injuries.
Wesley Matthews vs Sac – $4,500 on FD, $4,900 on DK
I’m a little upset that Matthews went off against Orlando in his last matchup, because that’s going to make him the chalk tonight. Still, he’s in a fantastic spot against the Kings, who are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. He’s also scored at least 22 fantasy points in five straight games.
Also Considered- Joe Johnson vs Pho – $5,600 on FD, $5,700 on DK (SF Eligible)
Kevin Durant @ GSW – $10,600 on FD, $10,300 on DK
If I could only pay for one superstar in tonight’s marquee game, it’d be Durant. He scored 60 fantasy points in the last meeting between these two teams, and did so without the benefit of the overtime period.2 He’s also scored at least 52 fantasy points in four straight games, and does give you some slight savings off the stud point guards. Small forward is also very thin tonight, so locking in KD gives you some positional value as well.
Justice Winslow vs Pho – $4,400 on FD, $4,600 on DK
The Joe Johnson signing has definitely eaten into Winslow’s minutes a bit, but tonight’s game against Phoenix could give him a chance to see a lot of floor time. The Heat are favored by over 13 fantasy points, so they could look to get a little extra rest for veterans like Wade, Deng, or Johnson. On a night where there’s only four games, you’re going to need a little creativity to win a GPP, and if Winslow can get 30 minutes in this excellent matchup, he could be a tournament winner.
Also Considered- Kawhi Leonard vs SA – $8,000 on FD, $7,700 on DK, Chandler Parsons vs Sac – $6,700 on FD, $6,800 on DK
Draymond Green vs OKC – $8,600 on FD, $8,900 on DK
In their last meeting with the Thunder, Green put up one of the oddest and most impressive stat lines you’ll ever see – 56.8 fantasy points with only two real points scored! That just goes to show you how good Draymond Green is at racking up peripheral statistics. He’ll certainly put up more then one basket in tonight’s game, and his ceiling makes him a prime GPP target.
Serge Ibaka @ GSW – $5,900 on FD, $5,900 on DK
Ibaka has pretty quietly been playing some solid basketball recently. He’s scored at least 24 fantasy points in six of his last seven, including a monster 45.5 game against the Warriors in their last meeting. His price is still very affordable, and therefore has lots of upside.
David Lee vs Sac – $4,400 on FD, $4,300 on DK
Lee is one of the best value plays on the board tonight. He’s gotten a new lease on basketball life in Dallas, and has scored at least 29 fantasy points in two of his last three games. Sacramento is also giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.
DeMarcus Cousins @ Dal – $10,900 on FD, $10,700 on DK (PF Eligible)
There are a lot of guys to pay up for tonight, but if you’re playing multiple lineups I’d try to get Cousins into at least a few of them. Dallas doesn’t have anyone that can match up with Cousins size and athleticism, and he has scored at least 49 fantasy points in six of his last seven games.
Zaza Pachulia vs Sac – $5,400 on FD, $5,400 on DK
To try and combat Cousins, Dallas is going to have to lean on Zaza Pachulia. His price is also at a very affordable level right now, and he’s scored at least 22 fantasy points in six of his last seven.
Also Considered- Hassan Whiteside vs Pho – $8,600 on FD, $8,300 on DK, Alex Len @ Mia – $5,300 on FD, $5,600 on DK
That’s it for tonight’s picks. If you have any questions on these plays or any others, feel free to tweet me @MattLaMarca.
Good luck tonight!