Continuing a series of articles looking at early My Fantasy League MFL10 projections vs. positional ADPs. Up next, the best running back values right now.
|Miller, Lamar HOU RB||RB||1||6||15.58||2.55||167||270.1||5|
|Lewis, Dion NEP RB||RB||9||15||39.92||4.89||166||226.4||6|
|Powell, Bilal NYJ RB||RB||42||49||142.38||23.7||149||120.1||7|
|Abdullah, Ameer DET RB||RB||24||31||80.76||8.65||160||186.3||7|
|Vereen, Shane NYG RB||RB||35||47||133.35||21.18||161||141.3||12|
|Jennings, Rashad NYG RB||RB||29||42||113.46||15.08||162||171.4||13|
|Allen, Javorius BAL RB||RB||36||50||148.24||28.16||156||136.1||14|
Lamar Miller could very well be the top overall running back in 2016. I laid out all the arguments in that article, so I won’t repeat them here. Instead I’ll comment on the one thing all of these value backs have in common: catching passes. Kevin Cole’s work on weighted touches explains just how important this is for PPR formats.
Dion Lewis was absolute gold last year, until he got injured. We’re basically all-in on Lewis. Justin Winn named him his favorite dynasty buy low target. Matt Wispe called him a bargain in the fourth round. And Anthony Amico has six reasons you should absolutely be drafting him this year.
I personally think Matt Forte will dominate the RB work in New York. But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing left for Powell. Tim Talmadge explains why he’s a good value, and 14TeamMocker follows up with an extended look at both Powell and our next bargain, Shane Vereen.
We like Vereen more than the drafting public, but the Sim App likes him even more, giving him a median projection about 20 points higher than our composite. The quagmire in the Giants backfield has certainly muddied the waters, but it appears to have made bargains of both Vereen and teammate Rashad Jennings. Personally I think Vereen has the most secure job in that backfield, and I’m a big fan at (or below) his current ADP.
I mentioned Jennings value above, but Josh Hermsmeyer makes a very strong case for him in MFL10s.
The takeaway here is really to go do some more research, especially when we’re getting different signals about some of these players. That goes for us as well – we’ll keep tinkering with our projections as the offseason progresses. We use a version of the Projection Machine, and so can you. It takes a few minutes, but it makes you account for all the factors that go into a projection. You can get an agnostic projection from the Sim App, and tweak our projections to your league’s settings using the Cheat Sheet App.