4 Overpriced Tight Ends
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The Best Ball App is all kinds of fun. Not only does it help you dominate those My Fantasy League MFL10s, it informs your general redraft and dynasty strategy as well. Knowing which players are currently over or undervalued has ramifications for all fantasy formats.

To get a quick sense of the market, I downloaded the app’s data for the past week, and then eliminated any player not taken in at least 80 percent of drafts. Then, I compared each player’s positional ADP to our projected positional finish. Here are the tight ends that represent the worst current values.

NAME POS PROJ.RNK POS.ADP ADP STDEV DRAFTED PROJ.FP DIFF
Walker, Delanie TEN TE TE 11 6 81.32 9.28 159 161.8 -5
Thomas, Julius JAC TE TE 16 11 109.42 11.23 165 133.5 -5
Graham, Jimmy SEA TE TE 27 17 137.16 19.77 152 82.6 -10
Bennett, Martellus NEP TE TE 26 15 128.26 16.52 151 85.4 -11

Here’s how to read the table: We project Delanie Walker to be the 11th-best TE this season. But he is being selected as the sixth TE, at an ADP of 81.3. He projects to finish five spots lower than he’s being drafted.

I’m not sure I agree with our composite projections. In fact, I know I don’t. I’ve personally got Walker projected for 186 points, which would make him our fifth overall TE. I like him in part because he was better than all of Tennessee’s wide receivers combined last year. But in aggregate, our staff sees him as just a borderline TE1. Fantasy Douche explores what Walker’s great 2015 means for his dynasty value. Meanwhile, I took a look at his solid projection and low volatility.

Julius Thomas gets a little more love from the situation-agnostic TE Sim App, where his median PPR projection is about a point per game higher. But it also gives him a brutal low projection of just 5.6 points per game, suggesting a lot of volatility. We project Will Tye to outscore Thomas, and you can get him 60 picks later.

Basically, I think Jimmy Graham is done. But our composite projections give him just under half the points that the TE Sim App projects, so we might be a little too low. Still, you’d be much better off targeting Jordan Reed.

I’m not really sure why Martellus Bennett’s ADP hasn’t fluctuated more. He wasn’t very good last year, and even though he’s in New England, it’s been a long time since the Rob Gronkowski – Aaron Hernandez show. Of course it could work out, but the Patriots also signed Chris Hogan and drafted Malcolm Mitchell. And they’re likely to be without Tom Brady for four weeks. I’m just not that interested in a TE handcuff to justify taking Bennett at his current ADP.

Conclusion

The takeaway here is really to go do some more research, especially when we’re getting different signals about some of these players. That goes for us as well – we’ll keep tinkering with our projections as the offseason progresses. We use a version of the Projection Machine, and so can you. It takes a few minutes, but it makes you account for all the factors that go into a projection. You can get an agnostic projection from the Sim App, and tweak our projections to your league’s settings using the Cheat Sheet App.

Charles Kleinheksel

Editor and contributor since 2013. Director of Special Projects August 2017. Occasionally found at numberFire, Rotoballer, and FantasyPros.

Week 10 Waiver Wire Advice

RotoViz provides advice on players to target and fade on your fantasy football waiver wire.

Week 9 Waiver Wire Advice

RotoViz provides advice on players to target and fade on your fantasy football waiver wire.

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