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Fantasy Golf: John Deere Results

I released two sets of projections this week, one for the John Deere Classic and one for the Olympics. Both did very well.

My projections for the Olympics correctly called Justin Rose, Henrik Stenson and Matt Kuchar as the medalists. For the John Deere Classic, I recommended tournament winner Ryan Moore  as one of my plays and my projections outperformed both DraftKings pricing and the Las Vegas lines as a predictor of fantasy points.

Each week I grade my projections against the rankings provided by DraftKings pricing and Las Vegas lines. I will only officially grade the projections for the John Deere Classic because it’s a regular PGA event and I released the projections for the Olympics as a bonus. A summary of the performance of each system is listed below.

MyScore DKSalaryScore VegasLinesScore
John Deere Classic 59.60% 42.53% 49.87%
Season Average 54.29% 45.92% 47.17%

If you’re new to the column, I use the same scoring system that is used at Fantasy Pros. A score of 100 percent would mean that a system was correct on every close/non-obvious recommendation. This week my edge was +17.07 percent and +9.73 percent vs. DraftKings pricing and the Las Vegas lines, respectively. Over fourteen weeks that I have been doing this publicly, my average edge has been +8.37 percent and +7.13 percent over both systems. This is better than the five percent or less house advantage that a typical casino game enjoys. My model won’t guarantee that you win every week, but it will help you gain an edge. The best rankers in the NFL typically score in the high fifties over the course of a season.

The performance of each player and their ranking across the various systems is shown in the table below.

PlayerNameActualDKPtsMyRankDKRankVegasRankProjectedDKPointsDKSalaryBovadaOdds
Ryan Moore141116569.74103002200
Ben Martin13620322563.8571008000
Meen Whee Kim11884957352.02620020000
Morgan Hoffmann11476533953.57670012500
Kelly Kraft107831047352.13610020000
Johnson Wagner10551402557.6969008000
Andrew Landry105969510950.39620030000
Bud Cauley10332863961.03630012500
Jon Rahm9923283.85114001200
Ricky Barnes9926192362.4379007000
Wesley Bryan981281369.397005000
Adam Hadwin9613231868.2575006600
Steve Marino95641146855.37600017500
Charlie Danielson9513413012738580040000
Sung-hoon Kang94561237356.66590020000
Kevin Na9365477.89105002000
Keegan Bradley90920871.6178003300
Robert Garrigus9015111365.1990005000
Aaron Wise891353513937.85700050000
Geoff Ogilvy8754232557.0975008000
Scott Stallings8758465056.53680015000
Peter Malnati851176110943.86660030000
Matt Jones8440151859.3583006600
Robby Shelton84100957349.07620020000
Andrew Loupe84681237354.82590020000
Miguel Angel Carballo84109539544.76670025000
Patrick Rodgers8319131164.1785004000
Cameron Smith8379613953.42660012500
Abraham Ancer8311613810944.03570030000
Billy Hurley III8234252560.3874008000
Henrik Norlander8242465059.04680015000
Tom Gillis82891235051.56590015000
Kyle Stanley8152355057.34700015000
Jamie Lovemark7917211564.4877006000
Scott Brown7923172562.9781008000
Derek Ernst7910410410945.47610030000
Hudson Swafford7716181864.8480006600
Steve Wheatcroft7745322558.5971008000
Michael Kim7729355061.29700015000
Scott Langley7688697351.63650020000
Dawie Van der Walt757813812753.51570040000
Zach Johnson7411184.413000650
Jason Bohn7444611558.766006000
Bronson Burgoon7450467357.88680020000
Boo Weekley7318352564.2670008000
Shawn Stefani7331352561.170008000
Blayne Barber7325613962.72660012500
Stewart Cink7333465060.93680015000
Scott Pinckney7271615054.55660015000
Troy Merritt7035463960.19680012500
Stuart Appleby7030297361.12720020000
Alex Prugh7081537353.05670020000
Angel Cabrera70921307351580020000
D.H. Lee701439510934.96620030000
Ben Curtis7014814514533.375600100000
Will MacKenzie6943535058.98670015000
Shaun Micheel6914012313936.11590050000
Steve Stricker6732279.24118001200
Luke List6727612562.1166008000
Andres Gonzales6785615051.98660015000
Hiroshi Iwata67941147350.7600020000
Andres Romero6674785054.21640015000
Zac Blair6677955053.53620015000
Tim Herron64112699544.29650025000
Dicky Pride631238610942.19630030000
Tyler Aldridge6190787351.41640020000
John Huh5937695060650015000
Rory Sabbatini5810710410945.31610030000
Rob Oppenheim57701309554.68580025000
Mark Wilson5682956852.18620017500
Rod Pampling5675959553.61620025000
Chris Stroud3921161563.6882006000
Ken Duke39981237350.05590020000
Mark Hubbard3862466855.77680017500
Tyrone Van Aswegen3561612555.8966008000
Rhein Gibson35108223745760010000
Charlie Wi3510514512745.44560040000
Sean O'Hair3422403963.37690012500
Hunter Mahan3480405053.24690015000
Tim Wilkinson34411147359.16600020000
Ryan Mcclintock3412713014540.15800100000
John Merrick3386787351.91640020000
Richard H. Lee3311311410944.2600030000
Luke Guthrie3259403956.03690012500
Michael Johnson3273277354.28730020000
Eric Axley321241047341.72610020000
John Rollins31114699544.17650025000
D.J. Trahan311101309544.75580025000
Matt Every3113111410939.03600030000
Craig Barlow3111513810944.08570030000
Retief Goosen3010292570.772008000
Camilo Villegas3066693955.25650012500
Sam Saunders3063863955.44630012500
Chad Collins3055697356.94650020000
Arjun Atwal30103867346.96630020000
Lucas Lee30122869542.24630025000
Greg Owen30999510949.3620030000
Mark Hensby3012910410939.67610030000
Robert Allenby301418613935.31630050000
Gary Woodland2947778.33100002500
Michael Thompson2946322558.5871008000
Lee McCoy291011047348.95610020000
J.J. Henry2991539551.25670025000
D.A. Points2997959550.17620025000
Marc Turnesa291116910944.65650030000
Brian Harman281412867.9387003300
Spencer Levin2828251861.3774006600
Vaughn Taylor2836403760.01690010000
Chesson Hadley2857863956.59630012500
Frank Lickliter II281448612734.8630040000
Jarrod Lyle2811912312743.42590040000
Daniel Chopra2813914514537.235600100000
John Senden278141872.584006600
Cameron Percy2748296858.03720017500
George McNeill27721046854.42610017500
Martin Piller2765789555.32640025000
Brice Garnett2795789550.48640025000
Daniel Summerhays2654578.26106002200
Brendon De Jonge2669535054.79670015000
Dudley Hart2613711410937.75600030000
Len Mattiace2614210412735.14610040000
Chris Smith261336913938.07650050000
Carlos Ortiz2593785050.74640015000
Wes Roach2567467354.97680020000
Thomas Aiken2449403957.94690012500
Ted Purdy2413213810938.61570030000
Heath Slocum2414713012733.98580040000
Trevor Immelman2413014513939.56560050000
Jason Gore2353539557.15670025000
Seung-Yul Noh2247272358.573007000
Tom Hoge2260535056.03670015000
Nick Taylor2239785059.43640015000
Cameron Beckman2214610410934.32610030000
Brian Gay211061309545.4580025000
Darron Stiles2112511410940.68600030000
Austin Connelly2112611410940.16600030000
Troy Matteson201181389543.66570025000
Steven Bowditch2014510412734.58610040000
Brendon Todd2012113812742.87570040000
Jerry Kelly192491162.8594004000
Tim Petrovic191367812737.78640040000
Matt Bettencourt1812813812740.08570040000
Brian Bullington1813814513937.63560050000
Matt Weibring171208612742.9630040000
Robert Streb16710872.5692003300
Jordan Niebrugge121021147347.31600020000
Derek Fathauer1038695059.61650015000
Mike Weir414912314525.685900100000

Review of Cash Game Recommendations

Zach Johnson ($13,000) – Johnson underperformed his lofty expectations. He finished T34 in real golf and scored 74 DraftKings points, 42nd most. He certainly did not return value on his huge salary. I recommended fading him in GPP formats and didn’t like rostering him in cash games either.

Kevin Na ($10,500) – Na finished tied for eighth by virtue of a seven under round of 64 on Sunday. He scored 93 fantasy points, sixteenth best in the field.

Gary Woodland ($10,000) – Woodland missed the cut on the number. He followed up a solid, three-under first round with a very disappointing second round score of +1.

Retief Goosen ($7200) – Goosen missed the cut for just the third time this year. He never got on track.

Review of Tournament Recommendations

Ryan Moore ($10,300) – Moore was the big star of the weekend. He won the tournament and scored 141 fantasy points, the most of anyone in the field.

Tom Gillis ($5900) – Hopefully you had the pleasure of owning Gillis this weekend. He finished with 82 DraftKings points, tied for 30th best, on his bargain salary.

Keegan Bradley ($7200) – Although he missed more than his fair share of short putts, Bradley performed very well. He finished with 90 DraftKings points, tied for 17th best in the field.

Jerry Kelly ($9400) – I recommended fading Kelly which worked out well. Kelly shot four over par in the first two rounds and missed the cut, hurting a lot of lineups in the process.

Overall it was a great week. I nailed each one of the Olympic medalists and recommended the winner of the John Deere classic as a tournament play. The Wyndham Championship is coming up on Thursday. DraftKings salaries should be released on Monday. Look for my fantasy golf projections and picks on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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