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Dollars Per Opportunity: Allen Robinson and Other Week 2 DFS Values

Every week I’ll be taking RotoViz’s projections and highlighting the best DFS value plays from a dollar per opportunity perspective. If you’d like to learn more about my methodology you can read the intro to my Week 1 post here. Before we get to my Week 2 value plays, let’s quickly recap my Week 1 plays and how they turned out.

At quarterback the only value play I recommended was Dak Prescott and while he didn’t do great, he still returned enough value where it didn’t kill your cash game lineup. I hit big on some running back plays, especially DeAngelo Williams, Spencer Ware, and Matt Forte, however, I whiffed on Christine Michael as a GPP pivot off Ware. I’m still not quite sure what happened in that Seahawks game.

At wide receiver, Tajae Sharpe, Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones, and Michael Crabtree were OK, but not great. My biggest hit was on Alshon Jeffery on FanDuel, but plays that went sour were Kamar Aiken,1 Golden Tate, and T.Y. Hilton.

My biggest miss last week was Coby Fleener, who was my top FanDuel play and put up 1.1 FD points. I did hit on Dwayne Allen and Vance McDonald as DraftKings plays though.

Remember, you can access the full list of $/opp plays on Google Docs here. I’ll keep the sheet updated throughout the weekend as news trickles in and projections are updated, but my plays below are based on projections as of midnight on Thursday.

Quarterbacks

On FanDuel, Alex Smith ($6,000) comes in as our third-best value play and while I don’t expect him to put up the kind of volume we saw last week he should benefit from the matchup. Houston likes to play at a high pace and given Smith’s depressed price relative to DraftKings he makes for a nice target. Another great value play is Matthew Stafford ($7,800), who we have projected with the highest opportunity score at the position while FanDuel has him priced as the 12th highest quarterback.

I’m looking at two quarterbacks as great values on DraftKings – Philip Rivers ($6,400) and Marcus Mariota ($6,000). Our projections have Rivers with the third-highest opportunity score and Mariota with the eighth-highest score. I especially like Rivers in GPPs as people will likely be off him after the Keenan Allen injury, but he should be forced to throw the ball plenty in what could turn into a mini-shootout vs. Jacksonville.

Finally, this week’s min-priced option is Josh McCown, who comes in at min-price on both sites. We don’t have him projected for huge opportunity – his opportunity score ranks just 23rd among quarterbacks – but I see the appeal of playing him in cash games. I would just temper your expectations in GPPs and would rather pay up to get Smith or Mariota.

Running Backs

A couple of running backs come across as good values on both sites so let’s cover those guys first. Jeremy Langford ($4,600 DK; $6,500 FD) comes in as the clear top value play on both sites and makes for a great Monday night hammer play against the Eagles. Langford’s opportunity score ranks top three and his price ranks around 25th on both sites.

The other consensus values are Danny Woodhead ($5,200 DK; $6,400 FD) and T.J. Yeldon ($4,700 DK; $6,500 DK). I especially like Yeldon as he gets to face a Chargers defense that nearly allowed 200 total yards to Spencer Ware, but more information will be needed on Chris Ivory’s game status before we can make a definitive call on Yeldon. Woodhead is almost a lock for me on DraftKings as his opportunity score ranks first among all running backs.

On FanDuel, Frank Gore ($5,700) is a great value as he comes in with the 12th highest opportunity score, but at the 37th ranked salary. That’s compared to the 24th ranked salary on DraftKings. Somehow Matt Forte ($6,800) is still priced outside the top 10 among running backs so if you’re playing the Thursday slate. His eighth-ranked opportunity score makes him a nice play.

I like Shane Vereen ($3,800) on DraftKings because of the PPR scoring and the potential shootout nature of Sunday’s game vs. New Orleans. I’m also all over Travaris Cadet ($3,000), who isn’t projected for a huge workload – his 13.7 DK opportunity score ranks 46th among all running backs – but he will be involved in the pass game and saw three red zone targets last weekend.

Wide Receivers

Jeremy Kerley ($3,000 DK; $4,700 FD), Travis Benjamin ($4,400 DK; $6,100 FD), Tyrell Williams ($3,700 DK; $5,400 FD), and Tajae Sharpe ($4,100 DK; $6,000 FD) are four great value plays across the two sites. They are all players with top-25 opportunity score – Benjamin’s ranks sixth among wide receivers – and come cheap as no player’s salary cracks the top 40 at the position. If I were going to play anyone in cash it would probably be Kerley on DraftKings.2

On FanDuel specifically, Michael Crabtree ($6,200) is a great bargain as his salary ranks 39th (compared to 29th on DK) while his opportunity score ranks 15th and he’s in a great spot against Atlanta in what should be a high-scoring game. Another underpriced wide receiver is Jordan Matthews ($6,900), who is our ninth-best $/Opp value and gets the woeful Bears secondary this week.

On DraftKings, I’m looking at Stefon Diggs ($5,100) who has the ability to be a PPR monster as long as his quarterback can play at an average level.3 Diggs is still priced as the 38th wide receiver, but we have him projected for a 17.4 opportunity score (26th among wide receivers). One of my favorite GPP plays this weekend is going to be Allen Robinson ($7,800), who doesn’t come in as a great $/Opp value because of his hefty price. However, his projected opportunity score is 23 ranks third behind Antonio Brown and Julio Jones and after a “disappointing” game in which he still saw 15 targets, I’d say he’s in a great spot to bounce back.

Tight Ends

Jason Witten ($4,300 DK; $5,900 FD) is a great value on both sites, but if you’re looking for GPP options I’ll give my favorite on each site.

On FanDuel, you’re looking at Jesse James ($4,500) who’s the stone cold minimum and projected for a respectable 12.2 opportunity score. The stat floating around the DFS industry is that Heath Miller averaged 10 receptions in two games against the Bengals last season so James looks to be in a primo spot.

On DraftKings, I’m looking at Vance McDonald ($3,000), who is projected for the ninth-highest opportunity score (16.4) and should be in line for plenty of check downs from Blaine Gabbert. There should be some nice garbage time production in this game in what will likely be a blowout.

Good luck!

  1. Make sure you catch up on Aiken’s putrid air yard totals in Week 1.  (back)
  2. Did I really just say that?  (back)
  3. Big if, I know  (back)
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