Week 7 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production.

AIR YARDS EXPLAINED

Air yards give us a complete view of a wide receiver’s game. They show us the volume of yards that are thrown at a guy, the amount of those yards he caught, and how many yards after the catch he created on passes he did catch. Matt Harmon has tweeted out some very cool route visualizations this season from NFL Next Gen Stats. Below is one for Tyrell Williams  in Week 7.

What I love about these visualizations is that they graphically depict the information captured in air yards.

From the above picture, here are the corresponding air yards data:

Completed Air Yards (white): 85
Incomplete Air Yards (gray): 84
YAC (green): 55
aYPT: 17.0
RACR:1 0.83

Six-Week Rolling buy low targets

The six-week rolling buy low model generated the following list of targets based on Weeks 2-7 from games played between 2009-2015. The predicted totals are rest of season PPR points per game. I calculate each player’s actual PPR points per game, subtract it from the predicted total to create the “diff” column, filter out anything below 0.3, and sort the list by “predict”, descending. The idea is to provide a list of targets that are both rosterable in most league formats who are also likely to see a bump in their production. The out of sample r-squared of the model is 0.59 and is very similar to the one I described two weeks ago.

full_name tar comp_air_yds incomp_air_yds air_yds yac ms_air_yds predict ppr diff
Brandon Marshall 10.0 56.2 77.2 133.3 17.2 0.43 14.5 13.8 0.7
Alshon Jeffery 8.2 45.8 45.2 91.0 23.3 0.30 12.2 11.6 0.6
Golden Tate 7.7 18.0 53.8 71.8 41.8 0.29 11.3 10.9 0.5
Allen Hurns 8.0 31.8 44.8 76.6 22.2 0.24 11.0 10.6 0.4
John Brown 8.2 47.6 66.4 114.0 11.0 0.23 10.9 10.5 0.5
Jeremy Maclin 7.6 40.4 46.4 86.8 13.6 0.36 10.8 9.8 1.0
DeVante Parker 6.0 36.3 38.3 74.7 12.8 0.30 10.4 9.8 0.6
Will Fuller 7.2 28.4 77.8 106.2 20.0 0.27 10.2 9.8 0.4
DeSean Jackson 6.5 32.8 55.7 88.5 11.5 0.28 9.5 8.9 0.6
Victor Cruz 6.2 30.7 34.8 65.5 18.8 0.22 8.8 8.3 0.5
Josh Doctson 5.0 42.0 62.0 104.0 15.0 0.06 8.0 6.7 1.3
Tajae Sharpe 5.7 22.3 49.0 71.3 6.3 0.24 8.0 5.4 2.6

Notes

  • Brandon Marshall heads the list of returning faces from Week 6. He remains a tremendous buy. With Ryan Fitzpatrick returning, I don’t think it can be overemphasized. Gobble him up.
  • Alshon Jeffery is in a similar situation with a QB returning that likes to get him the ball. Strong buy low.
  • Golden Tate continues to have some upside in his volume.
  • Allen Hurns is nursing an injury2 and has Blake Bortles throwing him the ball. Still, he is a decent contrarian target for the rest of the season.
  • Jeremy Maclin is a guy I’m looking to trade for where I can in redraft leagues. He has volume-based upside, and the Chiefs’ offense has a decent schedule for WRs in the next four games. The immediate game Week 8 versus Indianapolis may favor the running game, but the next three contests (JAX, CAR, TB) could be where Maclin posts a crooked number.
  • Tajae Sharpe is back on the list after a decent game Week 7 in the volume department. After his no show at Cleveland I wrote him off, but here we are. He also opened the week limited in practice with a sore knee. His predict is at the bare minimum I would accept as a bench stash in most league formats. Buy and hope for the best.

Three-week rolling buy low targets

The three-week rolling model has an out of sample r-squared of 0.45. It was trained on data from Weeks 5-7 from 2009-2015.

full_name position tar comp_air_yds incomp_air_yds air_yds yac ms_air_yds predict ppr diff
Kelvin Benjamin WR 11.5 68.5 66.5 135.0 9.5 0.34 14.6 14.3 0.3
DeAndre Hopkins WR 12.0 37.3 96.7 134.0 17.0 0.40 14.3 13.8 0.5
Alshon Jeffery WR 10.0 41.0 68.0 109.0 26.7 0.32 13.0 11.8 1.3
Travis Benjamin WR 7.0 33.0 67.7 100.7 29.7 0.29 11.7 10.9 0.7
Allen Hurns WR 9.0 35.0 37.0 72.0 24.5 0.22 11.1 10.5 0.7
Jordy Nelson WR 8.0 32.0 79.7 111.7 6.3 0.33 10.6 9.2 1.4
Jason Witten TE 6.5 30.5 29.5 60.0 12.0 0.32 10.0 7.8 2.3
DeSean Jackson WR 8.0 33.7 65.0 98.7 8.0 0.30 9.8 8.2 1.7
Jordan Matthews WR 5.0 37.7 27.7 65.3 12.3 0.28 9.0 8.3 0.7
Kyle Rudolph TE 7.5 22.5 28.0 50.5 12.5 0.20 8.9 7.0 1.9
Allen Robinson WR 7.0 28.0 65.0 93.0 1.0 0.29 8.4 5.4 3.0
Jermaine Kearse WR 4.5 30.5 39.5 70.0 12.5 0.31 8.3 7.3 1.0
Ricardo Louis WR 5.7 13.7 53.0 66.7 14.0 0.32 8.0 5.4 2.6

Notes

  • Look at Kelvin Benjamin at the top of the list. He’s a huge buy low, but he also has the highest rest of season predict of those on the list. Solid.
  • DeAndre Hopkins is seeing a ton of targets and a huge amount of air yards from a terrible QB in Brock Osweiler but isn’t doing a ton with it. Some analysts are now starting to call Hopkins a WR3 moving forward. Don’t believe it. One big game and the narrative will change to how Hopkins is QB-proof once again. Trust the past production and the volume and buy.
  • Jordy Nelson is seeing volume and used to be one of the best receivers in football. Perhaps he has lost a step, but if you can get him cheaply, he is worth acquiring on the chance that both he and Aaron Rodgers see improvement over the remainder of the season.
  • I’m relieved to see Jordan Matthews on this list. Nelson Agholor has been terrible and yet has stolen targets from Matthews since the schedule became tougher for the Eagles. Still, the rest of season predict shows a WR3 – not the WR2 level of production I was banking on when I drafted him everywhere. But him cheaply if you can.
  • I let Kyle Rudolph sneak onto the WR list because he is one of my favorite targets at tight end. Buy him anywhere you can.
  • Allen Robinson isn’t dead yet. He can turn this around. Believe. Buy.
  • Stash Ricardo Lewis wherever you can.
  • Please note that Tajae Sharpe is not on this list.

Data dump

Here are air yards data for all WR who have received a target this season along with a new metric I’m introducing called Weighted Opportunity Rating, or WOPR. The formula for WOPR is target share * 1.5 + ms air * 0.7. It weights both opportunity measures based on a regression calculation that balances predictiveness between PPR and standard fantasy scoring. It is a great back of the napkin substitute for the complex machine learning models used in this column. Enjoy!

full_namepositionteamrectartdyaccomp_airincomp_airair_yardsrec_yardsrush_yardsattemptsgamesteam_air_ydsms_air_ydsayptracrcatch_ratetarget_shareWOPR
Mike EvansWRTB40736584875951082545073623370.4614.80.500.550.310.78
Terrelle PryorWRCLE356331003425228644312172717630.4913.70.500.560.290.78
Julio JonesWRATL40654252578419997830065722660.4415.30.830.620.270.71
Brandon MarshallWRNYJ30682110362522884472068720570.4313.00.530.440.270.71
A.J. GreenWRCIN50703217558231789775070720300.3911.30.980.710.280.70
T.Y. HiltonWRIND45764165524396920689076722580.4112.10.750.590.280.70
Emmanuel SandersWRDEN40653116383309692499065719120.3610.60.720.620.280.67
Odell BeckhamWRNYG40703243387377764630070719710.3910.90.820.570.260.66
Jarvis LandryWRMIA466512533211394605741865717460.267.11.250.710.310.64
Antonio BrownWRPIT487551604323157475921975722920.3310.00.790.640.270.64
DeAndre HopkinsWRHOU3669379311486797390069723580.3411.60.490.520.260.62
Amari CooperWROAK40651224390294684614065719160.3610.50.900.620.250.62
Allen RobinsonWRJAC2655352244492736296055619480.3813.40.400.470.230.61
Greg OlsenTECAR39602214396295691610060621810.3211.50.880.650.260.61
Jeremy KerleyWRSF30572106225275500331057718150.288.80.660.530.270.59
Marvin JonesWRDET33524188435199634623352717100.3712.20.980.630.220.58
Tavon AustinWRLA366421611383004382996264717940.246.80.680.560.270.58
Jordan MatthewsWRPHI25412112242226468354042613850.3411.40.760.610.220.57
Michael CrabtreeWROAK3959670391229620461060719160.3210.50.740.660.220.56
Jeremy MaclinWRKC2745172261251512333-146615140.3411.40.650.600.210.55
Jordy NelsonWRGB27515101220387607321051618650.3311.90.530.530.220.55
Kyle RudolphTEMIN2648392218167385291049614970.268.00.760.540.240.54
Alshon JefferyWRCHI32550155365314679520055721540.3212.30.770.580.210.54
Demaryius ThomasWRDEN37544184272250522456054719120.279.70.870.690.230.54
Julian EdelmanWRNE375501421791553343213955715500.226.10.960.670.250.53
Kenny BrittWRLA33482160375203578535048717940.3212.00.930.690.200.53
Larry FitzgeraldWRARI47715172312293605484171728680.218.50.800.660.250.53
Mike WallaceWRBAL356131313594488074901961725020.3213.20.610.570.200.52
Kelvin BenjaminWRCAR2952468327250577394053621810.2611.10.680.560.220.52
Golden TateWRDET31531283120323443392355717100.268.40.880.580.220.51
Jason WittenTEDAL28420109165127292274042613580.227.00.940.670.230.50
Will FullerWRHOU24472148201572773349047623580.3316.40.450.510.180.49
Travis BenjaminWRSD35492173292280572465-150720690.2811.70.810.710.200.49
Randall CobbWRGB395522181732053783883356618650.206.91.030.710.230.49
Tyrell WilliamsWRSD31472213313286599526048720690.2912.70.880.660.190.49
Tajae SharpeWRTEN2245043205359564248145720780.2712.50.440.490.200.49
DeSean JacksonWRWAS27491105263368631368049721590.2912.90.580.550.180.48
Brandin CooksWRNO325042242623085704861950619360.2911.40.850.640.180.48
Stefon DiggsWRMIN27391125265126391390-239514970.2610.01.000.690.200.48
Nelson AgholorWRPHI1832142149269418191532613850.3013.10.460.560.170.47
Doug BaldwinWRSEA34452185245109354430-445616020.227.91.210.760.210.47
Davante AdamsWRGB2843578272242514350043618650.2812.00.680.650.180.47
Jimmy GrahamTESEA27411124284107391408041616020.249.51.040.660.190.46
Cole BeasleyWRDAL3339321417659235390739613580.176.01.660.850.210.44
Kenny StillsWRMIA16323103216317533317033717460.3116.70.590.500.150.44
Allen HurnsWRJAC24451150195229424345045619480.229.40.810.530.190.44
Marquise GoodwinWRBUF12323129142337479258033617790.2715.00.540.380.160.43
DeVante ParkerWRMIA2336177218230448295036617460.2612.40.660.640.170.43
Sterling ShepardWRNYG31482128206237443334048719710.229.20.750.650.180.42
Michael ThomasWRNO36493208272152424437052619360.228.71.030.730.180.42
Robert WoodsWRBUF2537156184169353240637617790.209.50.680.680.190.42
Torrey SmithWRSF1332252147340487199032718150.2715.20.410.410.150.41
Pierre GarconWRWAS30481105222208430329049721590.209.00.770.630.180.41
Adam ThielenWRMIN2230169255140395324030614970.2613.20.820.730.150.41
Quincy EnunwaWRNYJ32482189220142362409048720570.187.51.130.670.190.41
Brandon LaFellWRCIN27424115261171432372-243720300.2110.30.860.640.170.41
John BrownWRARI2445055246408654301045628680.2314.50.460.530.160.40
Sammie CoatesWRPIT20362109316331647425536722920.2818.00.660.560.130.39
Charles ClayTEBUF2436076192106298268036717790.178.30.900.670.180.39
Gary BarnidgeTECLE3040015021171282361040717630.167.11.280.750.190.39
Michael FloydWRARI1943330227412639257043728680.2214.90.400.440.150.39
Dennis PittaTEBAL38570141194174368335057725020.156.50.910.670.180.38
Victor CruzWRNYG24411117214209423331041719710.2110.30.780.590.150.38
Delanie WalkerTETEN24373116219164383330038620780.1810.40.860.650.160.37
Rishard MatthewsWRTEN2334271248189437319034720780.2112.90.730.680.150.37
Brian QuickWRLA20323128229200429357032717940.2413.40.830.630.140.37
Jamison CrowderWRWAS31443183208151359391-944721590.178.21.090.700.170.37
Jordan ReedTEWAS33462136180115295316046521590.146.41.070.720.170.36
Marqise LeeWRJAC29380189148169317337040619480.168.31.060.760.160.36
Mohamed SanuWRATL23402117141213354258040722660.168.90.730.580.160.36
Dez BryantWRDAL1123120130183313150023313580.2313.60.480.480.130.35
Chris ConleyWRKC2029054173134307227029615140.2010.60.740.690.140.35
Zach MillerTECHI33443134171105276305044721540.136.31.110.750.170.34
Anquan BoldinWRDET3241411515657213272042717100.125.21.280.780.170.34
Terrance WilliamsWRDAL202419421762279311024513580.2111.61.110.830.130.34
Kevin WhiteWRCHI1936054133279412187936421540.1911.40.450.530.140.34
Chris HoganWRNE15231102198202400300223715500.2617.40.750.650.110.34
Travis KelceTEKC2735215112572197276035615140.135.61.400.770.160.34
Lance KendricksTELA2540113310898206241040717940.115.21.170.630.170.33
Vincent JacksonWRTB1532016157278435173032523370.1913.60.400.470.130.33
Coby FleenerTENO21372104177175352281237619360.189.50.800.570.140.33
Cameron MeredithWRCHI27371150157172329307637521540.158.90.930.730.140.32
Willie SneadWRNO2836214324079319383037519360.168.91.200.780.130.31
Martellus BennettTENE2735423713026156367635715500.104.52.350.770.160.31
Dontrelle InmanWRSD1731173164182346237031720690.1711.20.680.550.130.31
Breshad PerrimanWRBAL1434035148347495183234725020.2014.60.370.410.110.30
Seth RobertsWROAK1937310472175247176038719160.136.70.710.510.140.30
Ricardo LouisWRCLE142606487207294151026717630.1711.30.510.540.120.30
Quinton PattonWRSF1931010879125204187031718150.116.60.920.610.150.30
Cameron BrateTETB2032249177138315226032623370.139.80.720.630.130.30
Tyler BoydWRCIN2031068177127304245031720300.159.80.810.650.130.29
Duke JohnsonRBCLE2839018921254621019039717630.031.24.570.720.180.29
Eddie RoyalWRCHI2937216916966235338037621540.116.41.440.780.140.29
David JohnsonRBARI284602774613117732368146728680.063.81.820.610.160.29
Ted GinnWRCAR14260321592113701913626621810.1714.20.520.540.110.29
Jermaine KearseWRSEA1827083105117222188027616020.148.20.850.670.130.28
Andrew HawkinsWRCLE172819499121220193029717630.127.90.880.610.130.28
Steve SmithWRBAL27401118192113305310040525020.127.61.020.680.130.28
Phillip DorsettWRIND1326146211231442253327622580.2017.00.570.500.090.28
Julius ThomasTEJAC1628255141130271196028519480.149.70.720.570.120.28
James WhiteRBNE27383255-1131202449238715500.010.512.200.710.180.27
Brice ButlerWRDAL919279812322197020613580.1611.60.440.470.100.27
Dorial Green-BeckhamWRPHI132217861119180139022613850.138.20.770.590.120.27
Corey BrownWRCAR1728157127148275177029621810.139.80.640.610.120.27
Ryan GriffinTEHOU2135080100144244180036723580.107.00.740.600.130.27
Adam HumphriesWRTB22340179541261802331334623370.085.31.290.650.140.27
Rob GronkowskiTENE1723218918655241375023515500.1610.51.560.740.110.27
Garrett CelekTESF122404495151246139025618150.1410.30.570.500.110.26
Hunter HenryTESD2029315417677253330029620690.128.71.300.690.120.26
C.J. UzomahTECIN1729083110118228193029620300.117.90.850.590.120.26
Giovani BernardRBCIN3037119970158526324738720300.042.33.090.810.150.25
Antonio GatesTESD173024079130209119030520690.107.00.570.570.120.25
Eric EbronTEDET182515815281233210025417100.149.30.900.720.100.25
Jack DoyleTEIND2933411516739206282033722580.096.21.370.880.120.24
Andre JohnsonWRTEN9232157019826885023620780.1311.70.320.390.100.24
Charles JohnsonWRMIN6160326019825892016614970.1716.10.360.380.080.24
Eric DeckerWRNYJ921230164169333194021320570.1615.90.580.430.080.24
C.J. FiedorowiczTEHOU213128615067217236031723580.097.01.090.680.120.24
Jacob TammeTEATL202939110077177191029722660.086.11.080.690.120.23
DeMarco MurrayRBTEN2734215727-151219263334720780.010.416.000.790.150.23
Jesse JamesTEPIT22313659494188159033722920.086.10.850.710.110.23
Dwayne AllenTEIND1827261131122253192027622580.119.40.760.670.100.23
Tyler LockettWRSEA132204611930149165222616020.096.81.110.590.100.22
Theo RiddickRBDET263231891343519017132517100.021.15.430.810.130.21
Robby AndersonWRNYJ1219027941922861213020520570.1415.10.420.630.080.21
Will TyeTENYG182506386111197149026719710.107.90.760.720.090.21
Bilal PowellRBNYJ24340150661215613734720570.010.413.000.710.140.21
Le'Veon BellRBPIT30370274-2933424534437422920.000.161.250.810.140.20
Clive WalfordTEOAK162316689106195155023619160.108.50.790.700.090.20
Zach ErtzTEPHI111602510633139131016413850.108.70.940.690.090.20
Corey ColemanWRCLE713221152115267173013217630.1520.50.650.540.060.20
Jaron BrownWRARI1123158129162291187023628680.1012.70.640.480.080.19
Devin FunchessWRCAR71923979141220112020521810.1011.60.510.370.080.19
Devonta FreemanRBATL2228113633316416950828722660.032.32.640.790.110.19
Kamar AikenWRBAL132305592187279147023725020.1112.10.530.570.070.19
Spencer WareRBKC1521122164269028549221615140.064.33.170.710.100.19
Cordarrelle PattersonWRMIN182121124618641581521614970.043.02.470.860.110.19
Jaelen StrongWRHOU14240329979178131024623580.087.40.740.580.090.19
Danny AmendolaWRNE131625011257169162016715500.1110.60.960.810.070.19
Todd GurleyRBLA2127015414193316840327717940.021.25.090.780.110.18
Trey BurtonTEPHI91714040488880017513850.065.20.910.530.090.18
Tyreek HillWRKC141736758781361251717615140.098.00.920.820.080.18
Kendall WrightWRTEN131712514356199168017420780.1011.70.840.760.080.18
Jordan NorwoodWRDEN13210556559124120021719120.065.90.970.620.090.18
Darren SprolesRBPHI17211202891721014221613850.010.812.350.810.110.18
Melvin GordonRBSD202721502583317546127720690.021.25.300.740.110.18
Chester RogersWRIND1119042118111229156020622580.1012.10.680.580.070.17
T.J. YeldonRBJAC20270111-511610620027619480.000.217.670.740.110.17
Ty MontgomeryWRGB20250133318391646625618650.021.64.210.800.110.17
Richard RodgersTEGB9171366510717284018618650.0910.10.490.530.070.17
Tevin ColemanRBATL1924127753267933023424722660.033.34.180.790.100.17
C.J. AndersonRBDEN1624110424234712843724719120.022.02.720.670.100.17
Vernon DavisTEWAS1821110412135156223022621590.077.41.430.860.080.17
Albert WilsonWRKC121804351429394018515140.065.21.010.670.080.17
Chris ThompsonRBWAS222611305486218419326721590.032.42.970.850.100.17
Brandon ColemanWRNO131812510183184126018519360.1010.20.680.720.070.17
Walt PowellWRBUF915035389012873015417790.078.50.570.600.080.17
Christine MichaelRBSEA1823198-819119040623616020.010.58.180.780.110.16
Eli RogersWRPIT13201538296178135020422920.088.90.760.650.070.16
Vance McDonaldTESF8152766683149142015518150.089.90.950.530.070.16
Travaris CadetRBNO172515938316997425619360.042.81.410.680.090.16
Malcolm MitchellWRNE6130443812216082013515500.1012.30.510.460.060.16
Larry DonnellTENYG152114151449592021519710.054.50.970.710.080.15
Demetrius HarrisTEKC713026418712867013615140.089.80.520.540.060.15
Bennie FowlerWRDEN714174811716555014519120.0911.80.330.500.060.15
Sammy WatkinsWRBUF611075611016663011217790.0915.10.380.550.060.15
Paul RichardsonWRSEA611012719416583011516020.1015.00.500.550.050.15
Lamar MillerRBHOU202511098162411758127723580.011.04.880.800.090.15
Mark IngramRBNO2226214015-41115433526619360.010.414.000.850.100.15
J.J. NelsonWRARI713047881982861352713528680.1022.00.470.540.050.14
Charles SimsRBTB1419110210304011211620423370.022.12.800.740.080.13
Luke WillsonTESEA612033179311050012516020.079.20.450.500.060.13
Kyle JuszczykFBBAL1825010925934134225725020.011.43.940.720.080.13
Charone PeakeWRNYJ1016039485410287016420570.056.40.850.630.060.13
Darrius Heyward-BeyWRPIT51321850135185686013522920.0814.20.370.380.050.13
Jalen RichardRBOAK141808327356211018420719160.033.41.770.780.070.12
Aldrick RobinsonWRATL61215857516090012622660.0713.30.560.500.050.12
Jordan HowardRBCHI142011211862412835221621540.011.25.330.700.080.12
Xavier GrimbleTEPIT816122615411583016522920.057.20.720.500.060.12
Isaiah CrowellRBCLE12170109-2131110748717717630.010.69.730.710.080.12
Marcedes LewisTEJAC914180285482108014619480.045.91.320.640.060.12
Shaun DraughnRBSF914123371451607114718150.033.61.180.640.070.12
Justin ForsettRBDET141804929115113618517100.010.64.640.780.070.12
Jordan CameronTEMIA81112832609260012317460.058.40.650.730.050.11
Taylor GabrielWRATL9110249236128116011422660.0611.60.910.820.050.11
Dion SimsTEMIA8120494595494012517460.034.51.740.670.060.11
Chris MooreWRBAL6130122912415341014625020.0611.80.270.460.040.11
Jermaine GreshamTEARI814022527412674014728680.049.00.590.570.050.11
Jared CookTEGB61102033629553011318650.058.60.560.550.050.11
Charcandrick WestRBKC1114047-102515378714515140.011.12.470.790.070.11
Brent CelekTEPHI580403939787908413850.069.81.010.630.040.10
Virgil GreenTEDEN10120296657195012319120.045.91.340.830.050.10
Carlos HydeRBSF131406155106642914618150.010.76.600.930.070.10
Justin HardyWRATL91221753379070012622660.047.50.780.750.050.10
Latavius MurrayRBOAK1216052159246723116519160.011.52.790.750.060.10
Justin HunterWRBUF472554491035907317790.0614.70.570.570.040.09
Crockett GillmoreTEBAL81413338549271014525020.046.60.770.570.050.09
Russell ShepardWRTB81012871289999910523370.049.91.000.800.040.09
Devontae BookerRBDEN913049206266924413719120.012.02.650.690.060.09
Jalin MarshallWRNYJ61102847297675011520570.046.90.990.550.040.09
DeAndre WashingtonRBOAK12150720337223515719160.000.224.000.800.060.09
Arian FosterRBMIA610068102939785510417460.023.92.000.600.050.09
Jay AjayiRBMIA8100321722394953512617460.023.91.260.800.050.09
Donte MoncriefWRIND710116574410173010222580.0410.10.720.700.040.09
Damien WilliamsRBMIA9121120-3411176412617460.000.1117.000.750.060.08
Andre HolmesWROAK71121627346143011719160.035.50.700.640.040.08
Markus WheatonWRPIT491843711145109322920.0512.70.450.440.030.08
Tyler KroftTECIN9100305686486010420300.036.41.340.900.040.08
Cobi HamiltonWRPIT581468591277208222920.0615.90.570.630.030.08
Greg SalasWRBUF461335637938906217790.0515.50.960.670.030.08
C.J. SpillerRBSEA591222121424399216020.034.71.020.560.040.08
Shane VereenRBNYG813078-326237514713319710.011.83.260.620.050.08
Harry DouglasWRTEN490113026564109220780.036.20.730.440.040.08
Braxton MillerWRHOU51102113445734-211523580.025.20.600.450.040.08
Levine ToiloloTEATL691534232749509522660.038.21.280.670.040.08
Anthony FasanoTETEN481181856743608620780.049.30.490.500.040.08
Andre RobertsWRDET581173236684908717100.048.50.720.630.030.08
Nick O'LearyTEBUF67024600608407617790.038.61.400.860.040.08
Tommylee LewisWRNO790205520757549519360.048.31.000.780.030.08
Ed DicksonTECAR681194431756308521810.039.40.840.750.030.08
Terrance WestRBBAL1015075-162595942415725020.000.66.560.670.050.08
Rashad GreeneWRJAC580171544593208519480.037.40.540.630.030.07
Josh DoctsonWRWAS2601551621136606221590.0518.80.580.330.020.07
Austin HooperTEATL66145109010915406622660.0518.21.411.000.020.07
Erik SwoopeTEIND480504342859308422580.0410.61.090.500.030.07
Rod StreaterWRSF360351355684806518150.0411.30.710.500.030.07
Dexter McClusterWRSD610043-6251933211520690.011.91.740.600.040.07
Rashard HigginsWRCLE36042935643306517630.0410.70.520.500.030.07
John PhillipsTEDEN581172320434008319120.025.40.930.630.030.07
Arrelious BennWRJAC4715347156210007619480.038.91.610.570.030.07
Josh BellamyWRCHI350244651094675421540.0521.80.420.600.020.06
James WrightWRCIN4601612607228-66520300.0412.00.390.670.020.06
Darren FellsTEARI91004417122961010428680.012.92.100.900.040.06
Ryan MathewsRBPHI77156707632627613850.011.09.001.000.040.06
Keenan AllenWRSD67018455506307120690.027.11.260.860.030.06
Tyler HigbeeTELA270243135607517940.025.00.170.290.030.06
Aaron BurbridgeWRSF25002038582006718150.0311.60.340.400.020.06
Jordan TaylorWRDEN350102047673005319120.0413.40.450.600.020.06
Jeremy LangfordRBCHI5902431013271169321540.011.42.080.560.030.06
Matt JonesRBWAS88057161632734609721590.014.02.281.000.030.06
Jeff JanisWRGB47091414282307418650.024.00.820.570.030.05
Stephen AndersonTEHOU570192131524008323580.027.40.770.710.030.05
Lance DunbarRBDAL5604973105696413580.011.75.600.830.030.05
Kenyan DrakeRBMIA67040-7201333688617460.011.92.540.860.030.05
Quinton DunbarCBWAS11021331514831014521590.07148.00.211.000.000.05
Danny WoodheadRBSD6813141014351168220690.011.82.500.750.030.05
MarQueis GrayTEMIA34022592618104417460.0315.31.330.750.020.05
Chris IvoryRBJAC58078-44151238419480.000.53.750.630.030.05
Geoff SwaimTEDAL35036144185005513580.013.62.780.600.030.05
Austin Seferian-JenkinsTETB551-1620626105323370.0312.40.981.000.020.05
Tanner McEvoyWRSEA34120491506904416020.0312.51.380.750.020.05
Cody LatimerWRDEN35012126472205519120.029.40.470.600.020.05
Paul PerkinsRBNYG680108-31512105398519710.011.58.750.750.030.05
Ryan GrantWRWAS2604638441006521590.027.30.230.330.020.05
Josh HillTENO361111823412906219360.026.80.710.500.020.05
Jeff HeuermanTEDEN230113739764803319120.0425.30.630.670.010.05
Blake BellTESF2505524291006418150.025.80.340.400.020.05
Benny CunninghamRBLA670349-5443457617940.000.610.750.860.030.05
Jace AmaroTETEN34012478555904120780.0313.81.070.750.020.05
Thomas RawlsRBSEA6603740441256216020.000.710.251.000.030.04
Brandon MyersTETB35122118392305423370.027.80.590.600.020.04
Derrick HenryRBTEN56063729701616720780.001.57.780.830.030.04
Brandon BoldenRBNE24013231331544415500.028.30.450.500.020.04
Jonathan GrimesRBHOU57024471128127323580.001.62.550.710.030.04
Patrick DiMarcoFBATL5602619-2174506522660.012.82.650.830.020.04
Roger LewisWRNYG24113025553104319710.0313.80.560.500.010.04
Jarius WrightWRMIN44012200203204114970.015.01.601.000.020.04
Tyler ErvinRBHOU35061225371835723580.027.40.490.600.020.04
Andy JanovichFBDEN350306131936335619120.013.81.890.600.020.04
Cole WickTEDET23010841491803317100.0316.30.370.670.010.04
Adrian PetersonRBMIN25010-3527505214970.000.43.500.400.030.04
C.J. ProsiseRBSEA3401911112230-24216020.015.51.360.750.020.04
Phillip SupernawTETEN340201218303205320780.017.51.070.750.020.04
Logan PaulsenTECHI2504618241006421540.014.80.420.400.020.04
Bradley MarquezWRLA24016919282524417940.027.00.890.500.020.04
Brandon TateWRBUF2302294333143717790.0211.00.940.670.020.04
John KuhnFBNO461871815176519360.001.31.880.670.020.04
Reggie BushRBBUF13001319321363417790.0210.70.410.330.020.04
Doug MartinRBTB550241001034855223370.002.03.401.000.020.03
Mike GillisleeRBBUF34120707271364717790.001.83.860.750.020.03
De'Anthony ThomasWRKC44015110112604215140.012.82.361.000.020.03
Ameer AbdullahRBDET55154303571015217100.000.619.001.000.020.03
Mike DavisRBSF2409731016394618150.012.51.600.500.020.03
Mychal RiveraTEOAK3408223253004319160.016.31.200.750.020.03
Ross TravisTEKC240100881004415140.012.01.250.500.020.03
Quan BrayWRIND34013233263674622580.016.51.380.750.010.03
Leonte CarrooWRMIA2303119201403217460.016.70.700.670.010.03
Matthew SlaterWRNE010004949051315500.0349.00.000.000.000.03
Jonathan StewartRBCAR24070101071584321810.002.50.700.500.020.03
Devin StreetWRIND13021821392003122580.0213.00.510.330.010.03
Alfred BlueRBHOU14031181941614723580.014.80.210.250.010.03
David JohnsonTEPIT34024128203604422920.015.01.800.750.010.03
Jordan PaytonWRCLE020003434002117630.0217.00.000.000.010.03
Jamize OlawaleFBOAK340201011130474619160.012.82.730.750.020.03
Ifeanyi MomahTEARI23016343375003428680.0112.31.350.670.010.03
Ka'Deem CareyRBCHI34028-132271074521540.000.513.500.750.020.02
Knile DavisRBKC23086-1514-13315140.001.72.800.670.010.02
Trevor DavisWRGB020002828002518650.0214.00.000.000.010.02
Tyler EifertTECIN120092231902120300.0215.50.290.500.010.02
Alan CrossRBTB13005813503323370.014.30.380.330.010.02
Jerell AdamsTENYG33019130133203319710.014.32.461.000.010.02
Cecil ShortsWRTB1205720271202123370.0113.50.440.500.010.02
Clay HarborTEDET330154041903217100.001.34.751.000.010.02
Denard RobinsonRBJAC1208-122217143519480.0110.50.330.500.010.02
Mike ThomasWRLA020001919002317940.019.50.000.000.010.02
Brandon BostickTENYJ1308112903320570.000.74.500.330.010.02
Lucky WhiteheadWRDAL110171801835461613580.0118.01.941.000.010.02
Jerome FeltonRBBUF1203202582517790.001.02.500.500.010.02
Jared AbbrederisWRGB1202639802218650.004.50.890.500.010.02
Justin PerilloTEGB220107071702218650.003.52.431.000.010.02
Tavarres KingWRNYG010002626001119710.0126.00.000.000.000.01
Aaron RipkowskiFBGB220550510252318650.002.52.001.000.010.01
Derek WattFBSD22095051422420690.002.52.801.000.010.01
Deonte ThompsonWRCHI1206-275402621540.002.50.800.500.010.01
Malcolm BrownRBLA220331013472417940.000.534.001.000.010.01
Griff WhalenWRSD120111121202220690.001.06.000.500.010.01
Alex EricksonWRCIN1102180182001720300.0118.01.111.000.000.01
Braedon BowmanTENYJ010001717001220570.0117.00.000.000.000.01
Niles PaulTEWAS220261012702421590.000.527.001.000.010.01
Taylor LewanTTEN11112140141002520780.0114.00.711.000.000.01
Bryan WaltersWRJAC010001212001219480.0112.00.000.000.000.01
Pharoh CooperWRLA010001010001117940.0110.00.000.000.000.01
Don JacksonRBGB010001010061118650.0110.00.000.000.000.01
Nick VannettTESEA0100066001116020.006.00.000.000.000.01
Will TukuafuUNKSEA0100055001116020.005.00.000.000.000.01
Freddie MartinoWRTB0100088001123370.008.00.000.000.000.01
Neal SterlingTEJAC11046061001219480.006.01.671.000.000.01
Ronnie HillmanRBMIN11002022-61114970.002.01.001.000.010.01
Hakeem VallesTEARI010001111001128680.0011.00.000.000.000.01
MyCole PruittTEMIN1106101701114970.001.07.001.000.010.01
Zach LineFBMIN0100011081414970.001.00.000.000.010.01
Rashad RossWRWAS1101707801121590.007.01.141.000.000.01
Khari LeeTEDET0100033001117100.003.00.000.000.000.01
Randall TelferTECLE0100011001117630.001.00.000.000.000.01
Kellen DavisTENYJ0100044001520570.004.00.000.000.000.01
Sean McGrathTESD110103031301420690.003.04.331.000.000.01
Cameron Artis-PayneRBCAR11015-462111442321810.002.05.501.000.000.01
Corey GrantRBJAC111132021501419480.002.07.501.000.000.01
Brittan GoldenWRARI0100066001328680.006.00.000.000.000.01
Rob KelleyRBWAS111010111031521590.001.01.001.000.000.01
Jay ProschFBHOU1105101621423580.001.06.001.000.000.01
Chris JohnsonRBARI01000220951428680.002.00.000.000.000.01
  1. RACR is a measure of how well a receiver converts air yards into receiving yards. The formula is: (completed air yards + YAC) / total air yards. It combines a receiver’s catching ability with his ability to create yards after the catch into one efficiency metric. It is the most predictive efficiency metric I have found for WRs.  (back)
  2. Though he was a full participant in practice at the time this article went to press.  (back)

Josh Hermsmeyer

Air yards, Numbers Game, and predictive modeling.
What we do
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.