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Joe 2 Pro: Week 12 Recap and Week 13 Plays

This article is simple. I primarily run down my entire cash game thought process for the week. I won’t list plays for the sake of listing them. If I know early in the week which guy I am starting at QB, he’s the only guy I’ll mention.

I’m going to list my whole player pool at each position. Then I will write up the one guy at each position I feel the most strongly about. Think of the first article as a rough draft. As news happens throughout the week, I’ll post an updated player pool on Friday or Saturday.

NOTE: PLAYERS ADDED TO MY PLAYER POOL ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WILL BE IN RED.

Week 12 Recap *cries uncontrollably*

week-12t

Week 12 was bad. Bad, bad, bad. There’s no way around it. In my original run through of lineups, I had Drew Brees as QB, which shaped my roster to look better than the one I actually played. Then all of a sudden I found myself on Brandin Cooks (someone I don’t usually roster in cash games) and he saw ZERO targets. There’s nothing fun about knowing you’re cooked after the noon games on Sunday.

To fit in in Amari Cooper and Cooks, that forced me to go from Brees at QB to Carson Palmer. I was fine with 18.56 from Palmer at $5300.

One weakness in my game has been punting with TEs with almost no ceiling or floor (e.g. Will Tye). However, against the Cleveland defense that has been hemorrhaging points to the TE position, I thought it was .

I don’t think my roster construction was bad process, it just didn’t work out. That’s how the NFL works sometimes. That’s why I am so strict with my bankroll. Anything can happen.

week-12s

This season has been one of the most frustrating years I’ve dealt with. Variance can be a bitch if it doesn’t fall in your favor. I have never had a losing year in NFL DFS, but I am dangerously flirting with that this season. I’m now -$40 on the year, which isn’t exactly where I thought I would be at this point in time.

2015 NFL DFS SEASON

2015

2016 NFL DFS SEASON

2016

Just for comparison, I uploaded my DFS season from 2015 and this year. Last year I saw steady profit with a few losses here and there. My losing weeks in 2015 weren’t nearly as big as some of my 2016 losing weeks. This year, I’ve had some big weeks, followed by some very, very bad weeks. That’s the main difference with what I am dealing with this year.

Week 13 Plays

Quarterbacks

  • Drew Brees – Roster construction is difficult this week, but I’ll be trying my best to get Brees into my cash lineups. It’s always difficult to pass up his ceiling when he’s at home (still regretting it last week), and he has one of the QB-friendliest matchups to top it off. The Lions rank 28th in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted average fantasy points allowed (aFPA) metric and the Lions’ defense is 31st in overall defensive DVOA, including 32nd against the pass. Brees has topped 20 fantasy points in every home game this season.
  • Aaron Rodgers
  • Philip Rivers
  • Tyrod Taylor

Running Backs

  • David Johnson
  • Le’Veon Bell – I’m going to break down my thought process when it comes to the two stud RBs for this week. When it comes to roster construction, you’re likely going to have to choose between Bell or Johnson, unless some serious value opens up and you’re somehow able to play both. I’ll just take the discount (cheaper on DK) and go with Bell. On paper, Johnson has the better matchup with Washington ranking 32nd in rush DVOA and the Giants ranking 8th. However, both teams rank next to each other in terms of aFPA. Washington ranks 25th and the Giants are 24th.I’m partial to Bell because I think he is on the better offense and it’s difficult to get away from the Steelers at home. Either way, I think it’s a mistake to not have one of these two RBs on your team. In the last six weeks, Johnson has garnered 22 percent of the Cardinals’ target share, just six targets behind Larry Fitzgerald. In that same span, Bell represents 23 percent of the Steelers’ target share, just 11 targets behind Antonio Brown. While these RBs are expensive, you’re essentially getting two players (a RB and WR) for the price of one because of how involved these players are their team’s passing games.
  • Jordan Howard
  • Theo Riddick
  • Doug Martin
  • Devontae Booker
  • Jeremy Hill
  • Carlos Hyde

Wide Receivers

  • Antonio Brown
  • Julio Jones
  • Julian Edelman
  • Brandin Cooks
  • Michael Thomas
  • Marvin Jones 
  • Tyrell Williams
  • Tyreek Hill – We’re going to need some value plays and Hill’s price is still low enough that I am comfortable using him in cash games. Hill has garnered 28 targets in the last three weeks and he has turned that into 23 receptions. He’s a better play on DraftKings where it’s full PPR. The Falcons’ defense is going to a bit more vulnerable with the loss of Desmond Trufant for the season. The Falcons ranked 27th in pass DVOA without Trufant last week.
  • Dorial Green-Beckham (pending Jordan Matthews)
  • Willie Snead
  • Marquess Wilson

Tight Ends

As I am sitting here listening to Taylor Swift, the only think I can think of is how much I loathe choosing TEs for DFS purposes. Currently writing this early Wednesday afternoon and I don’t have a strong feel for TEs yet. Check back on Friday or Saturday for the player I feel most strongly about.

I actually really like Graham, Kelce and McDonald equally this week. They’re all in good spots, it really just comes down to roster construction. My strategy for them is to build my rosters with my QB, RBs, WRs first and whichever of those TEs fit into my roster, that’s who I am going to plug in. 

  • Jimmy Graham
  • Travis Kelce
  • Eric Ebron
  • Vance McDonald

Defense

  • Broncos
  • Ravens
  • Cardinals
  • Packers
  • Miami
  • Jacksonville

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