Led by Senior RB Kareem Hunt, Toledo faces Appalachian State for the first time ever on Saturday December 17, 2016 at 5:30 p.m. ET in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama.
Hunt is currently 14th in total career collegiate rushing yards since 2000. Hunt is a bigger back listed at 6 foot even and 225 pounds. Toledo has a high powered offense checking in at 18th in points per game. College Football Reference ranks Toledo’s 2016 strength of schedule at 103rd out of 128 teams.
Production
In 2016, Hunt has accounted for 27.2 percent of the Rockets yards from scrimmage. He also has 10.9 percent of Toledo’s passing targets. Hunt has averaged 6.3 yards per carry on 760 career rushes. Based on his height, weight and collegiate usage he looks a lot like C.J. Prosise with a much bigger resume.
| Year | Class | G | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | FR | 11 | 137 | 866 | 6.3 | 6 | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 0 |
| 2014 | SO | 10 | 205 | 1631 | 8.0 | 16 | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| 2015 | JR | 10 | 178 | 973 | 5.5 | 12 | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| 2016 | SR | 12 | 240 | 1355 | 5.6 | 8 | 39 | 377 | 9.7 | 1 |
Jon Moore pointed out around this time last year how exquisite Hunt’s production was in his 2014 season at age 19. Hunt had a somewhat down year statistically in 2015 after being both suspended (two games for violating team rules) and injured (hamstring). Hunt has bounced back in a big way in 2016. While his touchdowns dipped in comparison to his sophomore season, his market share of the offense actually increased from 25.9 percent to the aforementioned 27.2 percent.
Another positive I noted from looking over his collegiate production is that Hunt doesn’t turn the ball over. He has one fumble (not lost) in four seasons and 831 touches.
Comparable Players
What makes Hunt so intriguing is his size mixed with his receiving ability. This has become a big part of potentially becoming a workhorse in the NFL. Below is a list of similarly sized players with at least 10 percent of their college team’s targets in their most prolific season.
One thing that Hunt may be lacking is draft capital. Currently, he is projected to be a 4th or 5th round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Jon Moore thought that, had Hunt declared for the draft last year, he was in the mix to be a top-five running back in the 2016 class after Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry. If Hunt can impress at the combine in February, he has a chance to improve his draft stock which would in turn dramatically improve his NFL prospects.
| Player Name | College YPC | College Dominator Rating | College Target Share | Height (Inches) | Weight | Draft Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 6.7 | 33.50% | 10.90% | 73 | 222 lbs | 1.10 |
| C.J. Prosise | 6.6 | 26.20% | 11.50% | 72 | 220 lbs | 3.27 |
| David Fluellen | 6.3 | 27.50% | 10.00% | 71 | 224 lbs | Undrafted |
| Kareem Hunt | 6.3 | 27.20% | 10.90% | 72 | 225 lbs | TBD |
| David Johnson | 5.4 | 40.80% | 14.40% | 73 | 224 lbs | 3.22 |
| Javorius Allen | 5.4 | 27.70% | 11.70% | 72 | 221 lbs | 4.26 |
| Jay Ajayi | 5.3 | 41.30% | 12.40% | 72 | 221 lbs | 5.13 |
| Rajion Neal | 5.2 | 34.50% | 10.60% | 71 | 220 lbs | Undrafted |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5.0 | 12.50% | 12.30% | 72 | 225 lbs | 7.02 |
| Arian Foster | 4.7 | 20.40% | 12.10% | 73 | 224 lbs | Undrafted |
| Le’Veon Bell | 4.7 | 45.10% | 10.80% | 73 | 230 lbs | 2.16 |
| Marcus Lattimore | 4.7 | 27.00% | 10.50% | 71 | 221 lbs | 4.34 |
| Andre Brown | 4.4 | 25.80% | 10.00% | 72 | 227 lbs | 4.29 |
| Rob Kelley | 3.6 | 11.40% | 11.20% | 71 | 226 lbs | Undrafted |
Outlook
Shawn Siegele recently projected Hunt to land in San Diego as the heir to Danny Woodhead’s passing game role and immediate backup to Melvin Gordon. This brought me back to another big-bodied MAC player who was equally as productive.
| Player | From | To | School | G | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 2000 | 2003 | Northern Illinois | 45 | 940 | 4941 | 5.3 | 43 | 43 | 451 | 10.5 | 3 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2013 | 2016 | Toledo | 42 | 760 | 4825 | 6.3 | 42 | 71 | 529 | 7.5 | 1 |
Depending on where Hunt ends up being selected, I think he could make an immediate impact as either an early-down grinder or a third down back. The road starts this weekend, goes through the Senior Bowl and Combine. Hunt could end up being a mid-round steal for both an NFL team and in rookie dynasty drafts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9JdwwEgYAw
