The NBA has done a really nice job of balancing the schedule this week, and as a result we’ve got a surprising eight-game slate for a Thursday. We’ve got some marquee names and matchups on tap, including the third tilt between the Rockets and Thunder.
Before we get to the picks, I want to remind you to check out all the extensive coverage we have to offer here at RotoViz including slate strategy articles, value plays of the day, and injury/breaking news coverage. Also remember you can always do your own research using the NBA Game Splits App and the Pace Dashboard. Tune in for the On The Daily podcasts as well throughout the week for more in-depth analysis on a game-by-game basis.
Kyle Lowry vs Uta- $8,100 on FD, $7,800 on DK
Lowry has seen his price decrease quite a bit in anticipation of a tough matchup with the Jazz, and that’s made him an excellent value here. Lowry has scored at least 39.5 FD points in six of his last seven games, including a previous matchup against Utah where he put up over 48. Utah also has not been the same defensively without George Hill, and are coming off a game where they gave up a season high 115 points to the Boston Celtics.
Dennis Schroder @ NOP- $6,800 on FD, $6,600 on DK
The Pelicans have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing PGs this season, and Schroder has seen his price come back to reality after getting as high as $7,400 on DraftKings. This is a great spot for him to bounce back.
Also Considered- Russell Westbrook- $12,400 on FD, $12,300 on DK, Tony Parker @ Den- $4,600 on FD, $4,900 on DK
James Harden vs OKC- $12,000 on FD, $12,100 on DK
I’m approaching Harden two ways for tonight’s slate. On one hand, Harden is the top shooting guard option every single time he’s on the slate in terms of raw point potential. For that reason, I’m definitely interested in paying up for him for cash games, particularly on FanDuel with the extra salary available. However, at the same time I think Harden makes for an excellent fade in tournaments. Given the total and star power in this game, he’ll easily be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. But Harden just hasn’t had the same ceiling this year in games where Pat Beverley has also played.
With Beverley expected to play and Harden’s salary a little inflated, I think it’s an excellent opportunity to look elsewhere in GPPs.
DeMar DeRozan vs Uta- $8,300 on FD, $7,200 on DK
Getting DeMar DeRozan for only $7,200 on DraftKings is so cheap, its almost stealing. Barring a disastrous shooting night he’s essentially guaranteed 30 DK points, and has the upside to hit 50 even in a tough matchup. He’s a lock for me in all formats on DraftKings, but more of a tournament play on FanDuel at $8,300.
Also Considered- Gary Harris vs SAS- $4,700 on FD, $4,900 on DK, Victor Oladipo @ Hou- $5,900 on FD, $6,000 on DK
Paul George vs Brk- $7,900 on FD, $8,700 on DK
George has seen his price spike drastically on DraftKings in anticipation of a high-scoring matchup against the porous Nets defense, but remains really affordable on FanDuel at only $7,900. He’s scored at least 38 fantasy points in three of his last four games, and should be able to hit that threshold again against Brooklyn.
Danilo Gallinari vs SAS- $6,200 on FD, $5,500 on DK
If George is my favorite value at SF for FanDuel, Gallinari checks in as my favorite SF value over on DraftKings. Gallo has scored at least 26.75 DK points in eight straight games, and has scored at least 37 in three of his last five. The matchup against the Spurs is obviously a tough one, but the decrease in price more than makes up for it.
Also Considered- Gordon Hayward @ Tor- $7,700 on FD, $7,800 on DK, TJ Warren @ Dal- $4,700 on FD, $5,100 on DK
Anthony Davis vs Atl- $11,100 on FD, $10,000 on DK
Which stud is worth paying up for is debatable on FanDuel, but at only $10,000, Anthony Davis is hands down the number one play of the day on DraftKings. As long as he doesn’t leave this game with an injury, he’s virtually guaranteed for at least 50 fantasy points and has the upside to hit 70 or 80.
He’s a cash game lock for me and will be close to a 100 percent exposure play in tournaments as well.
Julius Randle @ Por- $7,100 on FD, $7,100 on DK
Randle has seen his price jump up on both sites, but I’m still not sure its quite high enough. The biggest hurdle for Randle has always been his playing time, and he’s coming off back-to-back games of at least 35 minutes. He’s scored at least 42 fantasy points in both of those games, and Portland is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing PFs this season. He’s an elite tournament play.
Also Considered- Enes Kanter @ Hou- $5,300 on FD, $5,100 on DK (Center Eligible), Thaddeus Young vs Brk- $5,200 on FD, $5,600 on DK
Rudy Gobert @ Tor- $7,400 on FD, $7,300 on DK
Gobert is coming off a bad game against the Celtics in which he scored only 25.75 DK points. Prior to that game, he had scored at least 31.75 fantasy points in fourteen straight games, and his price has decreased by a few hundred dollars from its peak. He’s one of the safest bets around for cash games if you can afford him.
Montrezl Harrell vs OKC- $4,700 on FD, $5,500 on DK
Harrell might be a touch too expensive on DraftKings, but he remains an amazing bargain for cash games on FanDuel. He’s played at least 30 minutes in three straight games, and has scored at least 24 fantasy points in all of them.
Also considered- Brook Lopez @ Ind- $7,500 on FD, $6,700 on DK, Dwight Howard @ NOP- $7,700 on FD, $7,500 on DK
That’s it for tonight’s picks. If you have any questions feel free to hit me up on twitter @MattLaMarca.