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2017 NFL Draft Reaction: Chris Godwin Goes to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris Godwin was drafted 84th overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. From a fantasy perspective, our opportunity scores suggest he’s gone to a neutral situation in terms of immediate opportunity. However, that opportunity score doesn’t take Bucs pick O.J. Howard into consideration.

We’ll get to more analysis of Godwin’s outlook and how he affects the Bucs, but first, we take a comprehensive look at him as a prospect.

CHRIS GODWIN, PENN STATE, 6-1, 209

FINAL AGE: 21.2    VERT: 36″     CONE: 7.01

RAW AND MARKET SHARE COLLEGE PRODUCTION

Year Rec Yds Avg TD msYD msTD
2014 26 338 13.0 2 0.12 0.17
2015 69 1101 16.0 5 0.39 0.25
2016 59 982 16.6 11 0.29 0.41
Career 154 2421 15.7 18 0.27 0.27

From 4 Solid WR Values in a Compelling Junior Class:

Godwin got a big boost by finishing his career with a 9-187-2 line in a Rose Bowl loss to Southern California. The No. 25 receiver recruit from 2014 blew up as a sophomore with almost 40 percent of the yards thrown by the much-maligned Christian Hackenberg.

Let’s look at his comps using the Box Score Scout.

godwin

Godwin is a good but not great prospect whose comps have had moderate success. Roddy White, Torrey Smith, and DeAndre Hopkins are very strong comps but are balanced out by some players who have yet to fulfill their potential.

Godwin ranked 22nd overall, and eighth among WRs, in our final RotoViz Scouting Index. However, among RotoViz analysts, he came in fifth in the Pre-draft Rankings and managed to make it to the finals of the WR Sweet 16 Tournament.

His 2.13 Phenom Index score placed him just behind first round WRs Corey Davis and John Ross. That score places him in the upper tier of the WRs in this class but far from elite historical performers. From an age-adjusted standpoint his sophomore campaign placed in a similar category as JuJu Smith-Schuster.

PLAYER OUTLOOK

Mike Evans has developed himself into one of the elite dynasty assets at the WR position and is clearly the lead dog in Tampa seeing 173 targets in 2016. Premier deep threat DeSean Jackson was signed as a free agent to add a vertical element and take some coverage away from Evans. Adding O.J. Howard in the first round provided yet another mouth to feed. Factor in an additional 81 targets that Cameron Brate got in 2016, and it’s easy to question where Godwin fits.

Predicting Godwin for early rookie success is wishful thinking when factoring in the competition for targets. Godwin projects as a developmental prospect with WR2 upside. The presence of Jackson will limit his early-career volume.

TEAM OUTLOOK

Jameis Winston may be the biggest winner of the off-season. Additions of Jackson, Howard and now Godwin give an ascending QB a plethora of weapons to succeed with. Consider high-scoring offenses in New Orleans and Atlanta, and it’s easy to see Tampa Bay getting into a fair share of high scoring affairs.

CONCLUSION

Godwin caught fire during the draft process and that hype spread throughout the fantasy community, likely leading to a jadedly optimistic projection in comparison to actual NFL evaluations. While Godwin landed in an improving offense attached to a young, ascending QB, he is likely fourth and maybe even fifth in the pecking order for targets. Godwin’s early outlook is limited by Jackson, which could mean a return on dynasty investment may not come until Year 3. Godwin does, however, have the upside to develop into a quality WR2 with the departure of Jackson or with increased opportunity due to injury.

Find all of our 2017 NFL draft reaction content here.

ADDITIONAL RESEARCH

  • The Phenom Index – Jon Moore combines age and market share of receiving yards into a single number. Historical success rates are provided, and scores for the 2017 draft class can be compared to those from previous years.
  • Jim Kloet provides context, graphing WR college market shares by age.
  • Josh Hermsmeyer calculated dominator ratings for all of this year’s prospects. Dominator rating is the average of a player’s market share of receiving yards and market share of receiving touchdowns.

https://youtu.be/FgdcCcmVS1M

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