Late round picks can turn your team from good to great. Being drafted as the 52nd and 53rd wide receivers off the board according to the Best-Ball ADP app, Marvin Jones and Kenny Britt are two receivers who appear to be vastly undervalued. While Matt Wispe made his case for Jones, here is the case to take Britt instead.
Last year, Terrelle Pryor was a pleasant surprise for the Browns, collecting 77 passes, 1007 yards, and scoring four times. This was good enough to be WR20 on the season in PPR formats. The Browns decided that instead of paying Pryor at his asking price, they would pay Britt, who himself compiled 68 catches, 1002 yards and six scores. The biggest difference between the two was targets. While Britt did his damage on just 111 targets in the woeful Rams offense, Pryor had a whopping 141 targets. Not only is Pryor and his 141 targets gone, so are Gary Barnidge and Andrew Hawkins, who had a combined 135 more. Those 275 targets are roughly half of the team’s total from a year ago that are now completely up for grabs.
|Terrelle Pryor Sr.||140||77||1007||13.1||4|
|Duke Johnson Jr.||72||53||514||9.7||0|
The only real threat to Britt getting significant volume is Corey Coleman, but even that is a stretch with so many targets leaving and the Browns expected to once again have a losing season. Britt is being paid like a team’s number one wide receiver, 19th among WRs, and should get the volume in a Browns passing attack that lacks threats.
Britt has, throughout his career, been a very efficient fantasy asset, despite the lack of a good quarterback in any of his seasons. Below is the list of quarterbacks that Britt has had throughout his career, with his receiving totals, fantasy points over expectation per attempt, and PPR points per target:
|Vince Young/Kerry Collins||2009||16||42||75||701||0.15||1.73|
|Vince Young/Kerry Collins/Rusty Smith||2010||12||42||73||775||0.71||2.38|
|Jake Locker/Matt Hasselbeck||2012||14||45||90||589||-0.2||1.42|
|Ryan Fitzpatrick/Jake Locker||2013||12||11||35||96||-1.01||0.59|
|Austin Davis/Shaun Hill||2014||16||48||84||748||0.14||1.69|
|Nick Foles/Case Keenum||2015||16||36||72||681||0.11||1.70|
|Case Keenum/Jared Goff||2016||15||68||111||1002||0.14||1.79|
As you can see, with lackluster QB play, Britt has excelled most seasons. If we look at his career reFPOEPA using the RotoViz screener, it compares quite favorably players going ahead of him, some by several rounds.
While Britt most likely will not outscore all of these players, it does indicate that he is much better than his ADP indicates.
What should we expect from Britt this season? Well, with the amount of volume up for grabs and his historical efficiency, the projections look very favorable. Projecting him with WR1 volume looks like this:
With where he is being drafted, Britt would be the most valuable pick in fantasy drafts if he were to produce like this.
WHY NOT JONES?
Jones checks many of the same boxes that Britt does when it comes to production. He is efficient, is in a high volume pass offense, and has a very similar contract. The biggest knock on Jones is that he is the number two receiver on his team. Golden Tate lead the team in targets a year ago, and is a favorite of Matthew Stafford. My projection for Jones are as follows:
This certainly makes Jones a good pick late, as he should have utility as a WR3 or FLEX play most weeks, but does not match the ceiling that Britt has as a number one receiver.