Why Draft Alshon Jeffery When This WR is Cheaper?
philadelphia eagles draft

Why buy a car for $20,000 when you can buy the same car with a crappy paint job for half the price?

That, in a crude nutshell, is one way of looking at arbitrage, a concept the Fantasy Douche first applied to fantasy football several years ago.

The 2017 draft season brings no shortage of opportunities to purchase players who have a host of things working for them – whether it be their situation, talent, or some other factor, for a far lesser price than a similar player.

This time I investigate the question – why draft Alshon Jeffery when a cheaper, and possibly superior, option is out there?

PLENTY OF ROOM ON THE BRITT BUS

RotoDoc has been driving that Kenny Britt bus hard all summer. You may remember articles such as:

Despite the good Doc’s best efforts, Britt’s needle has barely moved over the past two months; he’s still pennies on the dollar to Alshon Jeffery’s 38th-overall ADP. download (3)

2017 PROJECTIONS

Using the RotoViz Sim Score App, we can easily picture the range of outcomes for a player’s upcoming season based on a what they did last season.

Which WR would you rather own in 2017?

alshon

Player A

britt

Player B

This isn’t even a fair fight. I can’t keep a straight face and try to convince you that Jeffery has a better outlook than Britt in 2017. He doesn’t.

Their median projections give Britt the edge by 29 PPR points over the course of the season.

RotoViz staff gives Alshon the slight edge, with our composite projections giving Jefferey 211 PPR points to Britt’s 200.

PAST PRODUCTION

At this point, Jeffery is getting by on reputation, for if we look at his last few years of production, there is certainly something to be desired.

download (2)

Banged up, beat up, and suspended, it’s been a rough couple of years for Jeffery, who was forced to sign a one-year show-me contract with Philly. Meanwhile, Britt has quietly been close to Jeffery in overall production while holding his own as a big-play downfield threat.

In fact, reputations aside, Britt appears to be the superior downfield threat. Courtesy of Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards App, we can visualize their catch rates by depth of target. When it comes to passes thrown 25 yards or more, not only is Britt well above league average, he’s comfortably ahead of Alshon as well.

download (4)

download (5)

 

And before you use the quarterback situation in Cleveland as an excuse to kill Kenny, keep in mind that Britt has been good while catching passes from a crew of QBs that… well, I’ll just leave this here.

download (1)

Or here’s another way of looking at it, according to RotoDoc from the links above:

You read that right. The QBs Britt has played with have had a 2.03 higher AYA when targeting Britt compared to targeting everyone else they’ve thrown to. And we’re not talking a small sample size either. 

CONCLUSION

Zero RB, Robust RB, PPR or standard scoring – it doesn’t matter. At his ridiculous ADP, Kenny Britt makes a fine addition to any fantasy roster.

Meanwhile, we haven’t even had to play the Alshon-is-always-injured card to make the case against his current ADP.

I’m anti-Alshon and buying the Britt 2017.

Cort Smith

Featured Writer, RotoViz. Founder, Bet the Prop. Traveler, musician, recovering journalist.
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