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WR Targets: Dez Bryant Leads But Struggles

WR Targets takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), and weighted opportunity rating (WOPR).

Did you know that 12 wide receivers saw double-digit targets in Week 11? Dez Bryant led the way with 14, also good for the fifth-most air yards (154), but only finished with 63 receiving yards despite having highest a 44 percent target share.

Dez Bryant Target Analysis 11-21

Bryant has posted negative receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), which suggests he is underperforming his volume. He’s only caught 51 percent of his targets.

WR TARGETS

We will pick up the analysis from last week as you prepare to attack the waiver wire for Week 12. This week, we will place additional focus on FPOE to determine the efficiency of each WR while incorporating in other resources from Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards.

WR TIER 1

Targets Tier 1 Nov 21

  • Antonio Brown led all WRs with 187 air yards. He is averaging 11.4 targets per game, has a positive receiving FPOE this season, and is currently the WR1 in PPR formats.
  • Keenan Allen had a Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) of 0.78 which was the seventh-highest among all WRs.

WR TIER 2

Targets Tier 2 Nov 21

  • Mike Evans is averaging 9.3 targets per game and added 10 in Week 11. Unfortunately, he again had a negative receiving FPOE (-1.2) to subtract from a negative season total (-7.0). He is currently the WR19 in PPR formats and continues to disappoint fantasy players who invested an early draft pick to roster him.

Targets Tier 3 Nov 21

  • Brown and Allen were the only WRs to score more fantasy points than Kenny Stills. He continues to have a strong rapport with quarterback Matt Moore. Stills accumulated 156 air yards with a 1.15 Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR), which was the third-highest among WRs who saw eight or more targets.1

WR TIER 4

targets tier 4 Nov 21

  • Josh Doctson set a new career high in receiving yards with 81 in Week 11 and currently has a positive receiving FPOE for the season. He has averaged 6.3 targets per game and 95.3 air yards per game over the last three.

WR TIER 5

targets tier 5 nov 21

  • Stefon Diggs has averaged 6.6 targets, 4.4 receptions, and 66.5 receiving yards per game. Adam Thielen has averaged 9.6 targets, 6.2 receptions, and 91.7 receiving yards per game. Thielen continues to outperform Diggs this season and is setting up his own mini-tier with Larry Fitzgerald2 on a season-long basis.

WR TIER 6

targets tier 6 nov 21

  • Jeremy Maclin has only averaged 5.9 targets, 3.9 receptions, and 43 receiving yards per game. He is currently the WR49 in PPR formats but does have a positive receiving FPOE (9.2) through nine games. Maclin has lead the team with 221 air yards over the last four games.

WR TIER 7

targets tier 7 nov 21

  • Mike Wallace’s big game pulled him into the positive in FPOE this season (9.0). He only has an 18 percent target share over the last two games which has resulted in 11 targets, eight receptions, 75 receiving yards, and two scores.

WR TIER 8

targets tier 8 nov 21

  • Mohamed Sanu has caught 82 percent of his targets over the last three game and has a higher RACR (1.09) than Julio Jones (0.51) over that time frame. He also owns a large edge in fantasy points over expectation for the season (13.8 to -2.9).

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every Tuesday to help you make decisions for the upcoming week. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody). I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments to each week’s article. Those comments automatically go to our Message Boards. I will respond to as many questions as I can, and other writers (not to mention our community of well-informed readers) will jump in as well. I also encourage you to make use of our Apps. Our in-season apps will help you identify teams with great upcoming schedules, as well as insight into player-specific match ups.

What was most useful to you after reading this column?

  1. RACR is an efficiency metric that that shows how well a receiver converts air yards into receiving yards.  (back)
  2. Behind Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins and ahead of Jarvis Landry and A.J. Green.  (back)

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