Fantasy football is essentially a game of finding inefficiencies in the market. Armed with the MFL10 ADP app, we have the visual means to help us find the players who have the best chance at beating the market and paying off at their current cost in MFL10 best ball drafts.As part of an ongoing series, we’re counting down the best values in each round. Next up, Round 11.
Let’s take a stroll down to value town.
Eifert is the ultimate risk-reward candidate in the middle of the 11th round. While always an injury liability, the 28-year old also has the potential to finish as a top-six tight end. That’s where he ranked in 2015 on the strength of a 13-TD campaign.
Since then, he’s appeared in just 10 games, missing all but two contests last year as he underwent back surgery. Good health is no guarantee in 2018, but considering the upside, it’s worth getting a few dirt-cheap Eifert shares just in case the injury pendulum swings.
His ADP is well back of both Jack Doyle and George Kittle, who have just one career TE1 finish between them. That belongs to Doyle, who is was a top-12 option in 2017 but is sure to see fewer targets in 2018 with the Colts’ addition of Eric Ebron.
When he’s healthy, Eifert can hang with anyone. Heading into 2017, he was going nearly point-for-point with Travis Kelce on a per-game basis.
While the Bengals are a low-volume offense, they do make a point of keeping the TE involved. Last year, while filling in for Eifert, Tyler Kroft logged 44 receptions for 404 yards and seven TDs.
However, he is not the red zone presence that Kroft is.
Eifert missing more time in 2018 would surprise no one, but considering his history and upside, he’s a +EV (expected value) pick in the 11th round.
Devontae Booker is being written off due to the presence a younger, more exciting player. Booker and incoming rookie Royce Freeman are being drafted as if the backfield situation in Denver is completely settled.
The market has spoken, and it’s telling us that Freeman will be the lead back in Denver.
While the rookie leading the team in touches isn’t out of the question, some kind of committee seems more realistic. Last year, Denver played lead back C.J. Anderson on 55 percent of snaps, with Booker playing 32 percent. If the team deploys its backs in similar fashion in 2018, the price difference between the two should be nowhere near this drastic.
Booker comes into camp as the starter, and the coach is talking committee.
“Someone’s got to be the starter, but I think to have a great running game, you have to have two or three guys. … You want a guy to say, “Hey, it’s my role,” but also in the same breath, you want a combination of guys that help you win” – Broncos coach Vance Joseph.
Freeman’s 2017 Workhorse Score was just 50, good for 15th in the class, while his Backfield Dominator rating was 49, 17th in the class, so this approach makes sense.
Booker hasn’t been particularly good, but he’s useful in the passing game, having made 61 catches through his first two seasons. At minimum, he’ll be working in a timeshare, and he could be handed a heavy load if Freeman misses any time or stumbles as a rookie.
He’s not a must target, but he makes for a cheap bet in drafts where you’re taking a Zero RB approach.