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The 2 Best Fantasy Values in Round 13

Fantasy football is essentially a game of finding inefficiencies in the market. Armed with the MFL10 ADP app, we have the visual means to help us find the players who have the best chance at beating the market and paying off at their current cost in MFL10 best ball drafts.As part of an ongoing series, we’re counting down the best values in each round, starting with Round 13.

Let’s take a stroll down to value town.

Nyheim Hines

The rookie running back hype is real in 2018. However, despite landing in a nice spot in Indianapolis, one of the most versatile backs in the draft class is practically free.

Nyheim Hines was the ninth running back taken in the 2018 draft, just behind the much-heralded Royce Freeman. It’s curious to see Freeman going in the fifth and sixth round, while Hines languishes in the 13th round.

Meanwhile, team mate Marlon Mack has an ADP of 92nd overall.

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We’re starting to see Hines’ price creep upward, but not as much as it should be. Hines clocked the fastest 40-yard dash in the RB class and is also an accomplished receiver, averaging 30 receptions per season over his college career. He can do it all, a fact reflected in Anthony Amico’s model projections.

The NC State product has the sixth-best projection in the class, ahead of several bigger names going rounds ahead of him in best ball drafts.

Player School Age Breakout Age Breakout Age* Log(DS) ADJ APYPG Predict
Saquon Barkley Penn State 20.9 19.9 19.9 0.000 179.2 282.9
Derrius Guice LSU 20.5 19.5 19.5 0.301 114.6 216.7
Rashaad Penny SDSU 21.9 20.9 20.9 0.845 250.3 197.4
Ronald Jones USC 20.4 20.4 20.4 0.602 131.9 177.8
Nick Chubb Georgia 22.0 19.0 19 0.699 91.7 158.2
Nyheim Hines NC State 21.1 21.1 21.1 0.903 185.3 157.6
Sony Michel Georgia 22.9 22.9 0.477 94.5 155.1
Kerryon Johnson Auburn 20.5 20.5 20.5 0.778 132.1 154.0
Royce Freeman Oregon 21.9 19.9 19.9 0.954 136.6 138.2

The model doesn’t know that Hines landed in Indy behind a presumed starter and a below-average offensive line, but that only adds to his appeal. Hines’ price is being depressed by the assumption that Mack is the starter. While that’s currently true, the Colts are looking like a committee situation at best, and Mack hasn’t shown enough to give him the benefit of the doubt that he can hold on to the job all season long.

He averaged 3.8 yards per carry as a rookie, flashing the odd big play but mostly offering nothing but inconsistency.

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At worst, Hines will be part of a committee behind a line that should be much improved in 2018 after the team invested the sixth- and 36th-overall picks on guards.

His pass-catching prowess gives him a safe floor, and there are plenty of avenues through which he could end up being the lead back in 2018.

No matter your draft strategy this year, Hines looks like a must target.

Tyler Lockett 

Lockett doesn’t have the league-winning potential that Hines does, but he rates as a solid value thanks to an increased role in 2018.

Yes, Brandon Marshall just landed in the Pacific Northwest, but the 34-year old is coming off a catastrophic season, as well as multiple surgeries. He’s no lock to make the final roster.

Meanwhile, Lockett looks to be No. 2 in line for targets in Seattle. Yet, he’s going behind guys like Calvin Ridley and Kenny Golladay, two less-proven players who both appear to be the third option in their passing games, at best.

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Playing the No. 2 to Doug Baldwin in 2017, Paul Richardson posted a line of 44-703-6TDs. He left in free agency, and the door is now open for Lockett. In a small sample, it’s clear that his role significantly increased when Richardson was out of the lineup over the past few years.

prich

Even playing in an offense which is promising to be more run heavy in 2018, Lockett will still be catching passes from a top-five fantasy quarterback.

Unless Marshall finds the fountain of youth in the next few months, Lockett is a great bet to surpass his career high of 51 receptions and easily pay off on his 13th-round ADP.

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