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Dollars Per Opportunity: Return of the Mack

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I aggregate projections from around the internet and find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective.

We’re on a two-week losing streak folks — 5-8 last week (32-30 overall) — and it’s time to right the ship. Some of my most confident picks were the biggest duds as Chris Carson (1.3x), Jarvis Landry (0.5x), and John Brown (0.9x) really disappointed. Even my cover boy Marshawn Lynch (1.7x) failed to deliver on the revenge game narrative due to negative game script.

That said, I did hit on Jameis Winston (6.2) — as did everyone else — Ito Smith (3.3x), and Vance McDonald (3.7x) as well as ranking the Falcons wide receivers correctly. Hopefully Week 7, which is a smaller main slate, brings us some better luck.

Let’s get to the Week 7 plays!

Week 7 $/Opp Cheat Sheet

QUARTERBACK

Cam Newton | 40.4 Opp Score | $5,900 DK

One of my steadfast rules in DFS is when Cam Newton is under $6,000 you play him in cash — assuming he’s healthy, of course. Not only do we have that this week, but Newton is matched up vs. an Eagles defense that is struggling to stop the pass. The cherry on top is that Newton is running again with an average of nine attempts and 42 yards on the ground. It’s no surprise he has the top-ranked opportunity score and the fact that it’s paired with a QB7 price tag is preposterous.

Mitchell Trubisky | 35.5 Opp Score | $5,600 DK

I wanted to write up Deshaun Watson (38.7 Opp Score; $5,500 DK) for my GPP play here, but he’s definitely not 100 percent so I’m pivoting to Mitchell Trubisky. He surprisingly has the top GLSP projection on the slate:

trubisky-wk7glsp

The Bears are shifting towards a more pass-centric offense the last two weeks and it has shown up in the box score. Against Tampa Bay and Miami, Trubisky has averaged 335 yards passing, 4.5 touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions — he’s also adding 50 rushing yards to the mix. As a home underdog, I don’t expect the Bears to come out with a conservative game plan, which bodes well for Trubisky and is probably a reason why his opportunity score ranks ninth on the slate.

RUNNING BACK

Christian McCaffrey | 34.1 Opp Score | $7,700 DK

The great thing about Christian McCaffrey is that you’re getting someone who is game-script proof, and because of his usage in the pass game his floor has been 14 fantasy points. Check out his fantasy profile this season — via Dave Caban’s Weekly Explorer Tool:

mccaffrey-prodprofile

A lack of a valley is ideal for cash game plays — especially if you’re paying up in price. That said, if you’re going to see a valley it should be for touchdowns when the player in question actually gets plenty of usage in the red zone. What I’m saying is … McCaffrey is due for some positive touchdown regression and makes for a great DFS play.

Tarik Cohen | 21.0 Opp Score | $5,100 DK

Last week, Kareem Hunt put up his best receiving game by far against the Patriots, which is a good sign for Tarik Cohen. Hopefully, Matt Nagy took his notes from Kansas City where they torched the Patriots a couple of times. While the Bears arsenal on offense isn’t quite as dynamic, it’s still pretty damn good. For Cohen, we’re not seeing a big change in his snaps, but his usage has spiked the last two games — where he’s also led the team in WOPR — which sets up well for a huge game.

cohen-snapsusage

Marlon Mack | 18.8 Opp Score | $4,400 DK

Last week marked the return of Marlon Mack. While he was out-snapped by Nyheim Hines (30-24) Mack saw a lot more usage, which is a great sign. Mack saw 12-of-20 (60 percent) rush attempts and two of the Colts’ six targets to running backs. That usage profile sets up very well for Mack since the Colts are seven-point home favorites vs. the Bills.

Peyton Barber | 18.5 Opp Score | $3,800 DK

Finally, Peyton Barber owners got the breakout game — 106 total yards and one touchdown — we’ve been waiting for all season. Reports of Ronald Jones taking over were overstated as Barber saw 62 percent of snaps, 76 percent of rush attempts, and 57 percent of backfield targets. He’s the second-ranked RB value on the sheet and faces a Browns defense that has allowed the following stat lines:

  • Week 1: James Conner — 192 total yds, 2 TD, 5 rec
  • Week 2: Alvin Kamara — 99 total yds, 0 TD, 6 rec
  • Week 3: Bilal Powell & Isaiah Crowell — 124 total yds, 2 TD, 2 rec
  • Week 4: Marshawn Lynch — 157 total yds, 0 TD, 3 rec
  • Week 5: Alex Collins & Buck Allen — 144 total yds, 0 TD, 7 rec
  • Week 6: Melvin Gordon — 150 total yds, 3 TD, 2 rec

WIDE RECEIVER

Golden Tate | 24.9 Opp Score | $6,400 DK

Golden Tate tends to be the forgotten man in the Lions’ passing game because he doesn’t score long touchdowns (usually), but he’s been their top receiver from an opportunity perspective:

lions-wr

Tate’s WR10 price point comes with the second-ranked opportunity, which makes him the top value of the slate and a great GPP/cash game play.

Josh Gordon | 13.4 Opp Score | $5,600 DK

Josh Gordon doesn’t jump off the sheet as a great value play, but sometimes you have to disagree with the projections. We finally saw Gordon fully integrated in the Patriots’ offense last week — his 81 percent snap share was second only to Julian Edelman and his nine targets led the team. He only caught five passes for 42 yards, but with that kind of opportunity Gordon has a massive ceiling and is worth taking a chance on at his WR17 price point.

Devin Funchess | 14.5 Opp Score | $5,300 DK

Much like Gordon, Devin Funchess isn’t jumping off the page because of a lower projection. That said, I love his spot this week and his price tag doesn’t reflect the fact that he’s the top receiver on this offense. The Eagles are allowing massive volume to opposing wide receivers and while the return of Greg Olsen doesn’t technically help Funchess’ volume, he still put up the team’s top WOPR last week. DraftKings makes it easy to stomach him as they priced him down to the WR19.

Jermaine Kearse | 14.8 Opp Score | $4,100 DK

Finally, a wide receiver who jumps off the sheet! Jermaine Kearse is currently the fourth-ranked value on the slate given his 21st-ranked opportunity score and WR37 price tag. Making matters better, Kearse should avoid coverage from Xavier Rhodes as he plays primarily out of the slot and the Jets will be without Quincy Enunwa and possibly Terrelle Pryor. Last week, Kearse led the Jets in WOPR (0.67), catching nine of this 10 targets for 94 yards, which makes him a great cash game play.

TIGHT END

Rob Gronkowski | 15.5 Opp Score | $6,000 DK

Look, I get it … Rob Gronkowski’s usage has been down this season. That said, I can’t remember a time where he was priced this low and given his monster touchdown upside alone he’s a great GPP play in what is shaping up to be a sneaky shootout spot vs. the Bears.

David Njoku | 15.1 Opp Score | $4,200 DK

This week is shaping up to be a “get right” spot for the Browns passing offense, which is great news for David Njoku as he’s already been “right” despite Baker Mayfield’s struggles. Njoku has averaged 11.5 targets, 6.5 receptions and 62 yards the last two weeks and is the top value on the slate with the 4th-ranked opportunity score and TE10 price point. The Buccaneers have allowed big games to tight ends all season and it shouldn’t stop now.

Using some of these plays, I was able to put together the following cash lineup via our DFS Lineup Optimizer:

DFS-lineup-wk7

Good luck in Week 7 everyone!

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