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Game Level Similarity Projections : Quarterback Week 8

Week 8 is now upon us, and the 2018 NFL season is virtually halfway done. Hopefully, all of your fantasy teams are still in contention, or at least they have not all cratered, making your weekly start and sit decisions still important to get right. With this in mind, I have returned with the latest GLSP numbers for the quarterbacks ahead of Week 8’s slate of games.

Dave Caban continues to produce the numbers for us, going back seven, five and three weeks to collect his data this week. After taking in the full projections, I will offer three QBs whose projections make them ideal streaming candidates (if available in your league), as well as three for whom bad times may be lying in wait.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG
Jameis WinstonTBCIN17.323.92923.2
Kirk CousinsMINNO16.622.226.722
Andrew LuckINDOAK14.720.725.821
Mitch TrubiskyCHINYJ14.22124.619.6
Brock OsweilerMIAHOU12.218.522.918
Baker MayfieldCLEPIT15.819.622.219.4
Patrick MahomesKCDEN15.918.322.119.1
Jared GoffLARGB13.817.922.118.1
Russell WilsonSEADET11.314.321.816.8
Drew BreesNOMIN15.118.721.618.5
Aaron RodgersGBLAR1618.321.619.2
Eli ManningNYGWAS10.716.321.416.9
Tom BradyNEBUF11.516.821.216.3
Andy DaltonCINTB1417.921.118
Sam DarnoldNYJCHI11.315.920.915.2
Ben RoethlisbergerPITCLE11.916.52016.4
Case KeenumDENKC12.7162016.6
Carson WentzPHIJAX12.917.219.917
Joe FlaccoBALCAR11.616.219.916.1
Cam NewtonCARBAL10.415.419.615.1
Alex SmithWASNYG13.116.619.516.4
Deshaun WatsonHOUMIA8.813.419.213.7
Blake BortlesJAXPHI10.313.718.214.2
Josh RosenARISF7.612.31813.7
Matthew StaffordDETSEA8.311.317.513.1
Derek CarrOAKIND9.313.916.913.8
Derek AndersonBUFNE7.312.114.212.6
CJ BeathardSFARI5.58.212.38.6

Worth a Shot

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Jameis Winston TB CIN 17.3 23.9 29 23.2

Despite not throwing a touchdown last week, Jameis Winston was still able to put up presentable fantasy numbers. He should have a chance for much better in Week 8 against a beleaguered Bengals defense. The Bengals have allowed at least 20 fantasy points to four of the last five QBs they’ve faced, with the only exception being Ryan Tannehill. So basically, the last four real NFL QBs they’ve faced have scored at least 20 points. Winston is at the very top in all three projections this week and makes for an excellent streaming option.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Mitch Trubisky CHI NYJ 14.2 21 24.6 19.6

Despite his numbers being more Tim Tebow than Mitch Trubisky at times last week, the Bears QB did eventually manage to finish with his third consecutive 300-yard passing game against the Patriots. He has 11 touchdown passes in these three games, as well as 181 yards on the ground. In restricting Kirk Cousins to a mere 17.5 fantasy points in Week 7, the Jets were able to end their three-game streak of allowing at least 21 fantasy points to signal callers. They did allow multiple passing touchdowns again, however.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Baker Mayfield CLE PIT 15.8 19.6 22.2 19.4

The Steelers defense has been one to target in 2018, especially at the QB spot. Baker Mayfield has seen his passing yards drop in the last two games, and he finished last week’s overtime outing against the Buccaneers with only 215. He did throw multiple touchdowns for the first time in three games, though, and also chipped in with 43 yards on the ground. The Browns preference for playing in overtime games gives all of their players a boost in terms of fantasy output, although it is hard to bank on these occurrences. Mayfield projects as a top-five option in all three GLSP categories this week.

 Best to Avoid

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Matthew Stafford DET SEA 8.3 11.3 17.5 13.1

Matthew Stafford hasn’t been a terribly exciting fantasy option so far in 2018. Granted, he does have multiple touchdown passes in each of his last five games, but his passing attempts are not in his usual hemisphere. The Seahawks have yet to allow a QB to reach 20 fantasy points against them in 2018 and have allowed one or fewer passing scores in their last four games.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Blake Bortles JAX PHI 10.3 13.7 18.2 14.2

Generally speaking, you shouldn’t be considering starting a QB who is in danger of being benched during the game. This added wrinkle makes Blake Bortles someone to steer well clear of this week. The threat of being yanked means that we can’t even bank on garbage time points from Bortles, for so long a necessary part of his fantasy appeal. Still, he does love playing in London.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Cam Newton CAR BAL 10.4 15.4 19.6 15.1

The ever-present threat to run, and call his own number on the goal line, gives Cam Newton a weekly floor as high as any QB in the NFL. But his Week 8 matchup should give his owners pause for thought. The Ravens have not allowed a QB rushing score this season, and have allowed one or fewer passing scores in five games. You’re probably not going to sit Newton, and you’d be right not to. But expectations should be tempered.

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