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Game Level Similarity Projections : Tight End Week 10

Back once again like a renegade master, I come to offer the GLSP numbers for tight ends ahead of the Week 10 games, thanks to the resident numbers master, Dave Caban.

Dave has gone back seven, five and three weeks to collect his data for this week’s slate. It is difficult to find too many gems from the numbers this week, but I shall still do my best to pump up three players for whom the projections seem to suggest you can trust them. I will also point to two TE tandems containing players that you should consider leaving out of your line-ups for the week ahead. But given the current wasteland at the TE position, it’s getting harder to eliminate players.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG
George KittleSFNYG91520.716.3
Travis KelceKCARI10.715.71916
Zach ErtzPHIDAL815.72116
OJ HowardTBWAS813.71815.3
Jack DoyleINDJAX7.712.31915
Trey BurtonCHIDET9.3141814.3
Greg OlsenCARPIT7.71317.313.3
Jimmy GrahamGBMIA7.31215.312.7
Eric EbronINDJAX71316.312.7
Austin HooperATLCLE4.71114.311.7
David NjokuCLEATL6.310.714.311.3
Jared CookOAKLAC7111311
Jordan ReedWASTB4.3914.310.7
Rob GronkowskiNETEN5.79.312.710.3
Evan EngramNYGSF58.712.310.3
Benjamin WatsonNOCIN4.710.313.710.3
Nick VannettSEALAR5.38.312.39.7
Chris Herndon IVNYJBUF58.310.79.3
Dallas GoedertPHIDAL4.37.311.39
Vance McDonaldPITCAR3.77.711.79
Jesse JamesPITCAR3810.78
CJ UzomahCINNO2.77.710.78
Michael RobertsDETCHI3.36.7107.3
Erik SwoopeINDJAX3.36.78.37
Geoff SwaimDALPHI3.35.797
Mo Alie-CoxINDJAX24.57.57
Jordan FranksCINNO2587
Ricky Seals-JonesARIKC3596.7
Cameron BrateTBWAS2.75.37.76.3
Ed DicksonSEALAR3576
David GrinnageJAXIND2.75.386
Vernon DavisWASTB266.76
Nick O'LearyMIAGB23.765.3
Rhett EllisonNYGSF13.36.35
Antonio GatesLACOAK1.7454.3

Worth a Look

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
O.J. Howard TB WAS 8 13.7 18 15.3

It’s a repeated shout out for O.J. Howard, who was featured in this here piece last week. Granted, he is not widely available, owned as he is in 80.5 percent of ESPN leagues. But if you have him, you should certainly be nowhere near the thought of not starting him. His last four games have garnered 17 receptions for 250 yards, with four touchdowns. Washington has allowed at least five receptions to TEs in six games this season, and more than 40 yards in the same number. Howard will be a top-five player at this position for the rest of the season, so it’s highly unlikely I’ll speak of him again.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Jack Doyle IND JAX 7.7 12.3 19 15

Eric Ebron did sterling work for the Colts and his fantasy owners in the early weeks of the season, and we all thank him for it. However, upon Jack Doyle’s return in Week 8 we all saw that Ebron has not been able to make Andrew Luck forget his one true love completely. Doyle went 6/70/1 in his first game back. The Jaguars, on paper, would seem to have done quite well against TEs this season. But the last two teams with significant players at those spots they’ve played, namely the Chiefs and the Eagles, amassed 11 receptions for 163 yards and two touchdowns against them.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Chris Herndon IV NYJ BUF 5 8.3 10.7 9.3

Like Howard, Chris Herndon has been spoken of before in this pages. He’s not exactly tearing it up, with a mere 11 receptions over his last four games. But he does have three touchdowns in that span. The Bills defense has surrendered a touchdown to a TE in two of their last three games. This one looks like it will be a low scoring affair, and Herndon is one of the few players on either side with the talent to break off a big play. He’s a low priority starter, but if you absolutely HAVE to start someone (which you probably do), you could do a lot worse.

Look Away

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Erik Swoope IND JAX 3.3 6.7 8.3 7
Mo Alie-Cox IND JAX 2 4.5 7.5 7

The return of Doyle will mean that Ebron sees a scaling back of his workload. But it should also mean that the other TEs on the Colts roster see practically nothing. Erik Swoope and Mo Alie-Cox must, therefore, return to the depths from which they previously lingered. Think of them no more.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Vance McDonald PIT CAR 3.7 7.7 11.7 9
Jesse James PIT CAR 3 8 10.7 8

The Carolina Panthers are the team to target if you need to identify star performers at the TE spot this season. They’ve practically welcomed fantasy points against them from the position. However, despite the hopes, dreams, and prayers of fantasy owners everywhere, the Steelers steadfastly refuse to fully unleash one or the other of Jesse James or Vance McDonald (by which of course I mean McDonald). The presence of the other player continues to make it difficult to predict when it will be a good week to start either. So despite the good matchup and the far from hateful GLSP numbers, I’d advise steering clear.

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