Like many others, when I first started playing DFS I would just take shots at tournaments and hope to hit it big overnight, but that’s not a winning strategy in this game. This series will help you go from being a “Joe” to a pro.
Throughout the season I’ll post my bankroll so you can view my weekly progress. This year, my starting bankroll will be $1,000 on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel. I do this as a way to show how your bankroll can go through some valleys and peaks throughout the season. Experienced players aren’t winning 100 percent of the time — they face losing weeks like everyone else. The important thing is to be profitable at the end of Week 17. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
Week 12 Recap
A lot of times in DFS you get to sit and reflect after a rough week and consider all the things you could’ve done differently. This week had the opportunity to do the exact opposite after taking down the DraftKings 3K Nickel tournament. While $400 is a sweet win, I couldn’t help but be frustrated I didn’t put this lineup out there in more games. Truthfully with the holiday week I wasn’t confident in my research, and because I made a little money on the Thanksgiving slate I wasn’t looking to push it on Sundays. Any profit is always a plus, but man, there was potential for a massive week. Let’s hope we can put together another monster like that this week.
Week 13 Plays
Pat Mahomes is always in play because he has the highest floor and ceiling combination, but the pricing makes it tough to fit him in this week. Instead I’m looking to jam in all the Rams, who have the second highest implied point total (33 points) this week. Jared Goff has been better at home than on the road. However he gets a juicy matchup against the Detroit Lions, who rank 31st in terms of pass defense DVOA. Goff has faced two other bottom ten pass defenses on the road and produced quality numbers.
Jameis Winston looks like the play on FanDuel ($7,500). The Buccaneers/Panthers matchup has the second highest implied total this week, and the Bucs’ QB has produced elite numbers. There’s always a chance Winston has a meltdown and gets benched, but I think that’s baked in to the price tag. If Winston concerns you, it’s worth mentioning that our game level similarity projections love Baker Mayfield this week. I’m expecting Lamar Jackson’s ownership to be high, so Mayfield is a solid pivot off of him. And don’t forget about Marcus Mariota as perhaps an arbitrage play for $500 cheaper.
Todd Gurley hasn’t exactly been an auto-play over the last few weeks, but I’m locking him in on both sites. I want to move off of Christian McCaffrey, knowing his Week 12 explosion will earn him some extra ownership, but he’s in another smash spot against the Buccaneers. Kareem Hunt is in a similar spot against the terrible Oakland Raiders defense. However, I prefer Saquon Barkley and his league-leading opportunity for only $100 more on DK and $3oo less on FD.
Cheaper options to consider:
- Aaron Jones vs ARZ (21st Run Defense DVOA)
- Philip Lindsay vs CIN (28th Run Defense DVOA)
While he feels like a boom/bust player, Tyreek Hill has established a pretty decent floor in this high octane Chiefs offense.
Teams aren’t forced to throw the ball a ton against the them, but the Raiders are allowing the fifth highest average depth of target and the most touchdown passes. As I mentioned earlier, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds are all in play against the Lions. Aside from those Rams, the Fantasy Streaming App believes the Panthers WR’s have the best matchups this week. All of the Bears receivers are in play as the Giants rank 32nd against WR1s, first against WR2s and 29th against all other receivers. Taylor Gabriel has received at least five targets in every road game this year.
Other cheap options to consider:
Adam Humphries/Chris Godwin
Chris Conley (if Sammy Watkins sits)
If healthy, Eric Ebron will be an extremely popular play, but sometimes you just have to eat the chalk. If you’re looking for a pivot play, David Njoku has reached at least 50 receiving yards in six of his last seven games and gets a Texans defense who ranks 31st against the tight end position. Cameron Brate still hasn’t had more than four targets in a game, but has a strong shot at a touchdown in a projected shootout.