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Why You Shouldn’t Believe in Regression to the Mean (Sometimes): What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 9

 

By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?

Expected points (EP) tell most of that story. Looking at the leaders in total expected points helps us understand how players score their points, and whether we should expect that scoring to continue.

Expected points measure the number of fantasy points a target or carry should score based on historical averages for targets and carries with the same down, distance, and line of scrimmage. Carries at the opponent’s 1-yard line are much more valuable than carries at the 50-yard line. Expected points express that difference numerically.

Total Expected Points Leaders

The following table displays the non-quarterback leaders in total expected points1 for the season and in Week 9. Below the table I’ll offer a few observations.

PLAYER2018 totEP2018 totFPOE2018 EP/G2018 FPOE/GWk 9 totEPWk 9 totFPOE
Todd Gurley206.349.722.95.517.92
Alvin Kamara175.737.822.04.718.115.5
James Conner173.932.621.74.125.14.2
Adam Thielen173.942.819.34.812.50.2
Saquon Barkley171.530.121.43.800
James White167.63018.63.326.51.8
Jarvis Landry163.2-38.418.1-4.310.80.2
DeAndre Hopkins154.439.317.24.419.57
Antonio Brown151.612.819.01.617.6-2.4
Kareem Hunt150.348.216.75.413.419.7
Christian McCaffrey148.318.718.52.324.28.5
Odell Beckham Jr.1484.318.50.500
Davante Adams146.726.318.33.315.40.6
Ezekiel Elliott145-1.418.1-0.218.6-3.4
Julio Jones144.615.718.12.014.810.3
Stefon Diggs142.22.117.80.300
Michael Thomas138.249.817.36.224.414.7
Zach Ertz133.69.816.71.200
Travis Kelce13130.114.63.31513.9
Robert Woods128.424.314.32.717.1-4.6
Juju Smith-Schuster127.94.316.00.513.81
David Johnson127.7-7.516.0-0.900
A.J. Green127.72216.02.800
Melvin Gordon126.651.218.17.3136.3
Tyreek Hill125.448.113.95.310.22.3
Emmanuel Sanders123.831.413.83.514.8-4.1
Mike Evans122.826.815.43.413.7-11.1
T.J. Yeldon120.913.115.11.600
Michael Crabtree120.3-20.613.4-2.310.3-4.6
Keenan Allen1158.414.41.119.91.3
John Brown114.24.512.70.510.9-6.2
Golden Tate1143.916.30.600
Kenyan Drake113.74.512.60.511.6-4.1
Corey Davis107.8-20.313.5-2.516.9-4.9
Tyler Boyd107.533.813.44.200
Eric Ebron107.110.213.41.300
Willie Snead106.8-9.711.9-1.113-0.2
Joe Mixon106.4517.70.800
Carlos Hyde104.6-26.414.9-3.800
Adrian Peterson103.915.213.01.98.1-1.8
Brandin Cooks102.735.212.84.415.97.5
Dion Lewis101.8312.70.415.76.5
Jordan Howard100.6-712.6-0.99.67.1
George Kittle99.828.411.13.27.513.3
Nelson Agholor99.7-11.612.5-1.500
Lamar Miller99.5-5.512.4-0.78.8-2
Phillip Lindsay98.920.211.02.212.8-2.4
Alex Collins98.68.211.00.910.50.4
Sterling Shepard97.2912.21.100
Demaryius Thomas96.56.810.70.84.94.2
Sammy Watkins95.118.610.62.17.83.6
Marvin Jones9512.311.91.514.5-1.9
Javorius Allen94.81.210.50.18.5-1.3
Larry Fitzgerald93.1-11.411.6-1.400
Jimmy Graham92-5.511.5-0.711.63.9
LeSean McCoy90.6-22.311.3-2.813-6.1
Antonio Callaway89.8-24.410.0-2.77.40.7
Kerryon Johnson89.67.211.20.914.1-6.7
Donte Moncrief89.6-10.311.2-1.300
Jared Cook89.515.911.22.03.50.5
Nyheim Hines89.45.111.20.600
Tevin Coleman88.228.111.03.517.615
David Njoku87.6-5.611.0-0.77.71.6
Taylor Gabriel87.18.110.91.07.30.2
Devin Funchess8711.510.91.48.7-0.3
Cooper Kupp86.639.612.45.79.710.2
Marshawn Lynch85.8-6.814.3-1.100
Adam Humphries85.10.810.60.116.212.7
Kelvin Benjamin84.5-28.39.4-3.113.4-5.4
Tarik Cohen83.435.110.44.45.7-3.4
Chris Godwin83910.41.14.61.4
Kenny Golladay82.221.910.32.76.61.8
Ty Hilton823.313.70.600
Dede Westbrook81.414.410.21.800
DeSean Jackson80.54210.15.36.4-1.2
Latavius Murray80.422.58.92.59.72
Peyton Barber80.3-18.110.0-2.39.7-3.7
Danny Amendola78.75.78.70.611.4-1.7
Jalen Richard78.34.59.80.66.32.6
Kyle Rudolph77.938.70.32.62.2
Zay Jones77.8-12.98.6-1.49.9-4.1
Isaiah Crowell77.326.38.62.98.7-1.7
Julian Edelman77.32.715.50.519.4-3.5
Jordan Reed77-49.6-0.58.5-1.1
Keelan Cole77-4.59.6-0.600
Chris Carson76.61.110.90.23.80.2
Sony Michel75.7-2.412.6-0.400
Trey Burton75.520.99.42.66.34.5
Quincy Enunwa75.3-11.610.8-1.74.92.1
Jeff Heuerman74.9-16.29.4-2.018.45.9
Jermaine Kearse74.6-31.19.3-3.913.8-8.8
Alfred Blue73.9-17.88.2-2.06.9-3
Matt Breida73.816.58.21.88.1-2.4
Cole Beasley73.311.39.21.46.2-1.6
Chester Rogers73.2-5.79.2-0.700
Alshon Jeffery72.913.914.62.800
Will Fuller72.933.410.44.800
Alfred Morris72.8-24.89.1-3.17-5.7
Pierre Garcon71.9-13.39.0-1.77.37.3
Austin Hooper71.912.39.01.54.52.6
Frank Gore71.4-7.87.9-0.911.4-4.5
Calvin Ridley71.2528.96.514.75
Amari Cooper712.710.10.416.60.2
Duke Johnson70.410.27.81.116.812.8
O.J. Howard70.334.98.84.412.68.7
Allen Robinson70.3-4.811.7-0.800
Chris Ivory69.8-7.87.8-0.912.2-3.6
Courtland Sutton691.17.70.17.61.1
Josh Gordon68.114.29.72.017.46.6
Christian Kirk67.617.68.52.200
Austin Ekeler67.2288.43.54.10.3
Rob Gronkowski66.513.39.51.900
Mike Davis66.36.39.50.918.6-0.9
Tyler Lockett65.643.18.25.46.3-1.1
Bilal Powell65-2.79.3-0.400
Jamaal Williams64.4-148.1-1.86.21.2
Wendell Smallwood64.28.89.21.300
Robby Anderson648.88.01.18.5-1.2
Derrick Henry63.5-8.17.9-1.08.42.8
Chris Thompson63.13.112.60.600
Mohamed Sanu62.919.67.92.56.61.9
Laquon Treadwell62.6-4.37.0-0.53.22.5
Jordy Nelson61.916.47.72.15.2-1.6
Marlon Mack61.212.515.33.100
Ricky Seals-Jones61-14.47.6-1.800
Randall Cobb60.1-2.212.0-0.49.7-2.3
Theo Riddick59.9-9.510.0-1.611.2-0.6
Benjamin Watson59.67.68.51.17.18.1
Josh Doctson59.4-15.48.5-2.2111.1
Anthony Miller59.40.28.50.011-0.2
Ryan Grant57.21.89.50.300
Nick Chubb56.911.96.31.315.90.1
Corey Clement56.4-2.29.4-0.400
Paul Richardson56.32.88.00.49.2-5.6
Cordarrelle Patterson56.1-0.56.2-0.116.8-3
Devontae Booker55.92.36.20.373.4
Chris Hogan55.912.46.21.43.8-3.8
Albert Wilson55.535.27.95.000
Mark Andrews54.82.66.10.311.1-3.1
Phillip Dorsett54.23.67.70.551
Mike Williams5429.46.83.74.65.4
Vance McDonald53.712.97.71.89.4-3.9
Royce Freeman53.37.77.61.100
Keke Coutee52.4-5.813.1-1.500
Marquez Valdes-Scantling5212.87.41.894.1
Kendrick Bourne51.35.45.70.64.64
Jakeem Grant51.19.25.71.02.60
Ito Smith50.614.17.22.07.85.6
Tyrell Williams50.548.16.36.05.35
Ty Montgomery50.5-2.17.2-0.300
Allen Hurns50.4-6.36.3-0.81.47.9
Kenny Stills50.320.76.32.61.11.8
Maurice Harris50.2-610.0-1.219.92.5
Charles Clay49.9-146.2-1.800
Giovani Bernard49.55.812.41.500
Nick Boyle49-21.46.1-2.700
Chad Williams48.9-20.66.1-2.600
Taywan Taylor48.8-0.46.1-0.13.31.1
Geronimo Allison48.613.79.72.700
Nick Vannett48.5-5.76.9-0.816.60.6
Mark Ingram47.1-2.811.8-0.78.7-4.1
Zach Pascal46.6-12.87.8-2.100
LeGarrette Blount46.3-1.65.8-0.23.4-1.4
Michael Gallup46.3-3.25.8-0.49-0.9
Aaron Jones46.213.97.72.311.6-1
Jesse James45.814.85.71.95.41.9
D.J. Moore45.318.35.72.33.52.3
Marquise Goodwin45.219.76.52.88.1-5.8
Evan Engram44.6-0.18.90.000
Dalvin Cook44.4011.10.0104.9
Ryan Griffin44.2-17.96.3-2.62.7-0.4
Jordan Wilkins44.1-6.46.3-0.900
Terrelle Pryor44.18.96.31.38.5-5
Kyle Juszczyk43.710.64.91.23.9-0.8
Trent Taylor43.4-5.66.2-0.800
Torrey Smith43.41.77.20.300
Jarius Wright43.31.15.40.11.80
Tajae Sharpe42.54.35.30.51.6-0.6
Doug Martin41.9-8.75.2-1.17.60.3
Rashard Higgins41.3106.91.75.7-0.8
Martavis Bryant40.72.36.80.43.82.8
Greg Olsen40.617.28.13.49.610
Seth Roberts40.38.55.81.23-1.2
Ted Ginn39.40.79.90.200
Doug Baldwin39.32.36.60.46.45.3
Jay Ajayi394.49.81.100
Geoff Swaim38.76.86.51.100
C.J. Uzomah38.68.84.81.100
David Moore37.623.66.33.912.4-8.8
Rashaad Penny37.2-6.16.2-1.06.7-1.3
Chris Conley37.21.54.70.230.3
Mike Gesicki37.1-6.54.6-0.81.5-1.5
Jack Doyle37.1-1.112.4-0.400
Ryan Switzer37-4.84.6-0.66.6-1.5
Marcus Murphy36.8-12.17.4-2.46.4-3.5
Andre Holmes36.7-9.34.1-1.01.60
D.J. Chark36.4-8.55.2-1.200
Brandon Marshall35.8-5.26.0-0.900
Antonio Gates35.5-5.25.1-0.700
Jamison Crowder35.10.78.80.200
Dallas Goedert34.919.95.02.800
Cameron Brate34.710.25.01.53.80.7
Chris Herndon34.421.94.93.15.64.6
Tre'Quan Smith34.117.34.92.56.24.1
Austin Seferian-Jenkins33.1-7.16.6-1.400
Spencer Ware337.64.11.07.74.4
Gerald Everett32.3-4.74.0-0.68.1-0.3
Chase Edmonds31-5.63.9-0.700
Vernon Davis30.713.54.41.910.11.1
Deonte Thompson30.7-4.34.4-0.63.30.8
Tyler Eifert30.48.57.62.100
Jason Croom30.123.80.36.40.2
James Washington29.9-10.35.0-1.77.8-4.1
Jordan Thomas29.7104.21.44.43.3
Jacquizz Rodgers29.6-5.24.9-0.95.5-2.5
Rhett Ellison28.62.14.10.300
James O'Shaughnessy28.3-9.24.7-1.500
Damion Ratley28.2-27.1-0.56-2.4
John Ross27.7-1.15.5-0.200
Malcolm Brown27.25.93.90.826.8
Tyler Higbee26.9-1.93.8-0.36.5-0.5
Jonnu Smith26.8-6.13.8-0.96.64.7
Will Dissly25.510.16.42.500
Ian Thomas25.4-5.75.1-1.100
Raheem Mostert25.115.54.22.63.611
Kapri Bibbs24.611.44.92.34.36.2
Chris Moore24.41.83.10.21.52.5
Virgil Green24.16.13.40.94.20.6
Alex Erickson24.1-10.94.8-2.200
Devonta Freeman24-9.912.0-5.000
Wayne Gallman24-54.0-0.800
Corey Grant23.9-4.24.8-0.800
James Develin23.6-12.43.0-1.63-2
Maxx Williams23.63.93.90.700
Aldrick Robinson22.913.63.31.94.6-0.6
Matt LaCosse22.803.30.01.53.9
Trenton Cannon22.8-0.75.7-0.21.41.1
DeVante Parker22.54.75.61.22.9-1.1
Josh Reynolds22.47.24.51.400
Josh Bellamy22.1-2.63.7-0.42.6-2.6
Jordan Matthews22144.42.800
Jaron Brown21.812.54.42.53.74.3
Jordan Akins21.4-3.53.1-0.54-4
Luke Willson21.3-2.83.0-0.43.10.6
Curtis Samuel21.125.75.36.46.713.1
Demarcus Robinson21.1-33.0-0.42.8-1.5
Tavon Austin2116.53.52.800
Ronald Jones20.8-1.25.2-0.300
Niles Paul20.5-14.1-0.200
Bruce Ellington20.42.86.80.900
Lance Kendricks20.2-0.52.9-0.11.2-1.2
Josh Hill19.99.53.31.65.9-2.9
Rex Burkhead19.4-4.76.5-1.600
C.J. Ham19.3-4.52.8-0.600
Jordan Leggett19.2-5.33.2-0.93-1.4
Luke Stocker19.22.73.20.52.9-1.4
Demetrius Harris19.27.23.81.41.6-1.6
Michael Roberts19.111.44.82.95.9-3.7
Equanimeous St. Brown18.82.54.70.66.1-4.7
Eric Tomlinson18.2-5.13.0-0.92.4-0.8
Josh Perkins18.1-6.46.0-2.100
Jake Butt17.9-1.46.0-0.500
Mark Walton17.6-6.13.5-1.200
C.J. Anderson17.22.72.90.50.5-0.4
Justin Hardy17.1-55.7-1.700
Logan Thomas170.14.30.011.5-0.5
Erik Swoope16.916.43.43.300
Tim Patrick16.81.83.40.46-3.3
Cameron Meredith16.310.15.43.400
Marvin Hall1610.72.71.81.7-1.7
J.J. Nelson15.8-8.22.6-1.400
Zach Line15.4-4.13.1-0.83.3-2
Justin Hunter15.4-10.35.1-3.400
Leonard Fournette14.8-1.87.4-0.900
Neal Sterling14.4-3.73.6-0.900
Seth DeValve14.30.14.80.01.7-1.7
Bennie Fowler14.3-3.47.2-1.700
Blake Jarwin14.2-62.4-1.03.10.4
Derek Carrier13.8-6.53.5-1.63.1-1.3
Dante Pettis13.84.84.61.600
Andre Roberts13.7-83.4-2.000
Hayden Hurst13.62.12.70.41.91.2
Travis Benjamin13.5-7.23.4-1.82.2-2.4
Mo Alie-Cox13.54.93.41.200
Scott Simonson13.4-8.33.4-2.100
Darren Sproles13.3-6.113.3-6.100
Breshad Perriman13.2-5.14.4-1.710.5-4
Cody Latimer13.13.74.41.200
David Grinnage12.9-0.84.3-0.300
Marcus Johnson12.99.13.22.300
Russell Shepard12.8-2.74.3-0.900
Austin Carr12.8-1.62.6-0.300
Rod Smith12.7-5.82.5-1.22.9-1.1
Robert Foster12.7-10.63.2-2.700
T.J. Jones12.6-2.73.2-0.72.60.7
Keith Smith12.6-6.44.2-2.100
Roc Thomas12.5-5.42.5-1.100
Deontay Burnett12.4-0.44.1-0.13.1-3.1
Josh Adams12.10.23.00.100
Nick O'Leary11.97.36.03.700
Delanie Walker11.8-2.611.8-2.600
Kenjon Barner11.7-4.62.3-0.90.5-0.1
Tyler Kroft11.5-3.92.3-0.800
Rico Gathers11.4-4.82.3-1.000
Brandon LaFell11.26.75.63.44.50.5
Dontrelle Inman10.80.410.80.400
Elijah McGuire10.5-0.810.5-0.810.5-0.8
Jermaine Gresham10.52.32.60.600
Darren Fells10.510.52.12.100
Kamar Aiken10.40.95.20.500
Cody Core10-45.0-2.000
Jawill Davis9.9-5.25.0-2.600
David Morgan9.6-11.9-0.200
Garrett Celek9.62.32.40.600
Mike Boone9.5-2.71.6-0.500
Stevan Ridley9.5-1.71.9-0.300
De'Anthony Thomas9.13.43.01.100
Gus Edwards9-0.92.3-0.20.50.5
Mike Gillislee8.7-2.52.2-0.600
Anthony Sherman8.79.81.72.000
Rishard Matthews8.4-4.34.2-2.200
Darius Jennings8.11.42.00.41.82.8
Kenneth Dixon7.92.57.92.500
Samaje Perine7.8-1.82.6-0.64.9-0.1
Tyler Ervin7.8-1.32.0-0.300
Antony Auclair7.802.60.000
Kevin White7.72.33.91.200
Alex Armah7.65.51.51.13.32.8
Michael Floyd7.6-4.62.5-1.51.5-1.5
Vyncint Smith7.4-3.63.7-1.800
Ray-Ray McCloud7.3-0.51.5-0.11.4-1.4
Levine Toilolo7.3-0.21.8-0.100
Derrick Willies7.31.87.31.800
Dwayne Harris7.11.21.40.21.50.8
Jamaal Charles6.8-3.43.4-1.700
Ed Dickson6.56.93.33.52.4-2.4
Dion Sims6.2-3.33.1-1.700
Josh Malone6.1-3.93.1-2.000
Nick Williams6.1-2.42.0-0.800
Jeremy Kerley6-3.36.0-3.300
Cameron Batson5.9-0.83.0-0.44.3-0.2
Lee Smith5.9-0.65.9-0.600
Xavier Grimble5.91.52.00.500
Alan Cross5.7-4.11.9-1.40.9-0.9
Richie James5.54.22.82.14.23.8
Victor Bolden5.5-3.55.5-3.500
Eric Saubert5.5-1.91.8-0.600
Logan Paulsen5.57.31.82.400
Ricky Ortiz5.4-2.72.7-1.400
Tommy Bohanon5.4-2.41.8-0.800
Damien Williams5.3-0.41.1-0.100
Dan Arnold5.20.32.60.20.9-0.9
Mike Wallace5.2-5.25.2-5.200
Brian Quick5.2-0.42.6-0.200
A.J. Derby5.16.42.63.200
Justin Jackson5-0.42.5-0.200
Taquan Mizzell4.9-3.44.9-3.44.9-3.4
Kalen Ballage4.9-0.41.2-0.13.40.1
DaeSean Hamilton4.92.54.92.500
Shaun Wilson4.80.31.20.10.9-0.2
Orson Charles4.7-2.91.6-1.000
Hakeem Valles4.7-1.62.4-0.800
Andy Janovich4.63.81.21.01.30.6
Durham Smythe4.6-4.61.5-1.500
Robert Turbin4.6-2.32.3-1.200
Rashad Greene4.5-0.82.3-0.400
Terrance Williams4.5-0.72.3-0.400
Jacob Hollister4.524.52.000
Dalton Schultz4.4-2.24.4-2.200
Shelton Gibson4.41.42.20.700
Chad Beebe4.30.84.30.84.30.8
Cole Wick4.3-4.34.3-4.300
Tre Madden3.8-1.81.0-0.500
Benny Cunningham3.8-1.11.3-0.400
Sammie Coates3.6-1.41.8-0.700
C.J. Prosise3.61.63.61.600
Dwayne Allen3.40.31.70.20.82.4
Derrick Coleman3.40.60.90.200
Freddie Martino3.3-3.33.3-3.300
Jonathan Williams3.3-2.21.1-0.700
Tyler Conklin3.20.11.60.100
Jeremy Hill3.20.93.20.900
De'Lance Turner3.20.91.60.500
Chris Manhertz3.1-1.93.1-1.900
Brandon Wilds3.1-1.61.0-0.500
Charone Peake3.1-0.71.6-0.400
Matt Lengel3-1.61.5-0.800
Damiere Byrd3-1.21.5-0.600
DeAndre Carter31.11.50.600
Patrick DiMarco31.41.50.700
Brian Parker2.9-2.91.5-1.500
Marcedes Lewis2.8-1.31.4-0.71.40.1
Jonathan Stewart2.8-1.10.9-0.400
Dontrell Hilliard2.70.71.40.41.3-1.3
Jeremy Sprinkle2.7-2.72.7-2.700
Ameer Abdullah2.61.31.30.700
Ross Dwelley2.5-0.72.5-0.72.5-0.7
Ben Braunecker2.4-2.42.4-2.400
Blake Bell2.4-0.12.4-0.100
Roosevelt Nix2.40.51.20.300
DeAndre Washington2.20.51.10.31.70.6
Jaylen Samuels2.2-0.31.1-0.20.5-0.3
Tyrone Swoopes2.21.12.21.100
J'Mon Moore202.00.000
Mike Burton1.8-0.21.8-0.200
Russell Gage1.70.21.70.200
Darrell Daniels1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Jeremy McNichols1.6-1.21.6-1.200
Rob Kelley1.6-0.80.8-0.400
Khari Lee1.6-0.11.6-0.100
Marcus Kemp1.60.11.60.100
Cam Phillips1.60.31.60.300
Brandon Zylstra1.61.71.61.700
Ryan Hewitt1.5-1.51.5-1.500
Jamize Olawale1.5-0.21.5-0.200
Justin Watson1.501.50.000
Jordan Franks1.52.71.52.700
Brice Butler1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Jehu Chesson1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Khadarel Hodge1.411.41.000
Tim White1.411.41.000
Javon Wims1.2-1.21.2-1.200
Christine Michael1-0.11.0-0.100
Dwayne Washington0.9-0.70.9-0.700
Detrez Newsome0.5-0.50.5-0.500
David Fluellen0.5-0.30.5-0.300
David Williams0.5-0.30.5-0.300
Derek Watt0.3-0.20.3-0.200
Elijhaa Penny0.3-0.10.3-0.100
J.J. Jones000.00.000

Observations

  • Todd Gurley had what we could consider a down game for him in Week 9, with only 17.9 total expected points — a mark that ranks outside the top 12. New Orleans handed the Rams their first loss of the season. As a result of the game script, Los Angeles leaned more on their passing game than normal, with Jared Goff attempting a season-high 40 pass attempts. Gurley carried the ball only 13 times — a season-low for him. His 20 total opportunities match his lowest mark of the season.Screen Shot 2018-11-08 at 4.28.27 PM
  • The Saints managed to beat the Rams by getting two of the best performances of the season from their stars. Both Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas ranked in the top five in total fantasy points over expectation.
  • One other team managed to have two players ranked inside the top five in total FPOE in Week 9. Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt was the most efficient player of the week, and Travis Kelce ranked fifth. We shouldn’t necessarily expect these kinds of performances every week, but the fact the the list of leaders in FPOE is dominated by high-powered offenses should tell us something. Efficiency might not be predictive, but it is tied to team performance. Regression won’t hit as hard for Kamara, Thomas, Hunt, Kelce, or Gurley as it might for, say, George Kittle, who ranked sixth in total FPOE in Week 9.
  • The flip side of this observation is that positive regression may not be as sure a bet for players on bad teams. Jarvis Landry continues to have the least efficient season by any player. I’ve been saying he’s a buy low all season as he ranks second in receiving expected points. But unless Cleveland’s offense can improve, there’s little hope Landry will turn into an efficient player any time soon.
  • On the other hand, Duke Johnson ranked eighth in total FPOE playing in the same offense. His usage in Week 9 under Freddie Kitchens was encouraging not only for his fantasy outlook but also for football fans everywhere who want to see the Browns put the ball in the hands of their playmakers.Screen Shot 2018-11-08 at 3.50.34 PM Increased usage for Johnson figures to help Baker Mayfield and the entire Browns offense.mayfield-aya If the Browns can turn things around, perhaps there’s hope for Landry yet. According to the Weekly Stat Explorer, Landry finishes the fantasy season with one of the easiest WR schedules.Screen Shot 2018-11-08 at 4.03.00 PM
  • No player had a more valuable Week 9 workload than James White. White now leads all RBs in targets, receiving yards, and points per opportunity.Screen Shot 2018-11-08 at 4.06.08 PM Although points per opportunity is not a typically sticky stat, the fact that White scores most of his points from high-value receiving work makes his per-opportunity scoring more stable.Screen Shot 2018-11-08 at 4.08.06 PMSony Michel was close to playing last week, and should be back this week. Michel’s presence will take away some of White’s rushing work, but as White’s workload tilts more toward the receiving side, his per-opportunity scoring should remain elite.

 

  1. Rushing expected points plus receiving expected points.  (back)

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