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How the Cowboys Became a Team I Weirdly Want to Watch, and Other 2018 Mysteries: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 14

By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?

Expected points (EP) tell most of that story. Looking at the leaders in total expected points helps us understand how players score their points, and whether we should expect that scoring to continue.

Expected points measure the number of fantasy points a target or carry should score based on historical averages for targets and carries with the same down, distance, and line of scrimmage. Carries at the opponent’s 1-yard line are much more valuable than carries at the 50-yard line. Expected points express that difference numerically.

Total Expected Points Leaders

The following table displays the non-quarterback leaders in total expected points1 for the season and in Week 14. Below the table I’ll offer a few observations.

PLAYER2018 totEP2018 totFPOE2018 EP/G2018 FPOE/GWk 14 totEPWk 14 totFPOE
Ezekiel Elliott273.222.321.01.733.3-2.1
Saquon Barkley271.959.420.94.614.415.3
Todd Gurley269.76420.74.915.1-6.3
Alvin Kamara260.836.420.12.815.7-2
Christian McCaffrey257.868.919.85.321.96.2
Adam Thielen237.246.218.23.614.7-1.9
Julio Jones2363218.22.518.811.8
Antonio Brown235.32918.12.212.8-4.3
James Conner234.63319.62.800
Davante Adams22657.617.44.417.23.9
Juju Smith-Schuster217.729.716.72.323.55.2
David Johnson216.6-10.516.7-0.821.9-7.8
James White215.821.816.61.77.9-3.1
DeAndre Hopkins212.539.916.33.118.9-5.3
Stefon Diggs212.38.517.70.710.41.7
Keenan Allen211.627.316.32.115.92.9
Travis Kelce206.555.415.94.313.27.5
Tyreek Hill205.27315.85.627.5-5
Odell Beckham Jr.20515.117.11.300
Michael Thomas203.568.315.75.322.7-1.9
Zach Ertz203.332.315.62.512.1-3.3
Jarvis Landry201.6-24.215.5-1.98.317.8
Robert Woods193.223.214.91.819-5.9
Joe Mixon181.713.216.51.227.3-2.5
Kareem Hunt177.552.716.14.800
Mike Evans175.74513.53.59.82.8
Melvin Gordon167.879.716.88.000
Eric Ebron164.536.112.72.811.15.4
Ty Hilton164.332.314.92.918.510.4
Tyler Boyd163.643.712.63.49.5-1.3
Emmanuel Sanders163.429.513.62.500
George Kittle162.541.812.53.213.720.3
Dion Lewis162.4-17.912.5-1.417.4-7.2
Brandin Cooks162.236.713.53.111.8-6.6
T.J. Yeldon1621012.50.82.10.6
Golden Tate160.7-0.313.40.04-2.3
Kenny Golladay157.915.812.11.26.1-3.6
Corey Davis157.82.112.10.24.8-0.7
Tarik Cohen15649.312.03.810.42.5
Phillip Lindsay153.653.111.84.119.2-4.1
Lamar Miller152.87.412.70.616.9-0.7
Kenyan Drake150.316.411.61.34.8-1.1
Michael Crabtree148.5-23.311.4-1.85.90.2
Jordan Howard148.3-20.211.4-1.610.40.9
Jared Cook147.631.911.42.518.7-0.1
John Brown146.1-10.311.2-0.812.2-1.9
Adrian Peterson145.624.611.21.96.1-3.2
Peyton Barber145.4-26.411.2-2.012.3-6.9
Larry Fitzgerald145-6.711.2-0.515.6-5.1
Amari Cooper144.952.112.14.320.429.3
Julian Edelman144.4616.00.721.81.8
Dede Westbrook143.210.711.00.817.34.5
Taylor Gabriel141.6-10.710.9-0.811.2-6
Tevin Coleman14114.610.81.16.5-1.4
Sterling Shepard138.87.410.70.612.2-2.5
Nyheim Hines137.6-7.310.6-0.68.1-3.4
LeSean McCoy135.3-25.411.3-2.13-2.9
Nelson Agholor134.8-14.710.4-1.14.12.8
Adam Humphries134.618.310.41.411.7-3.5
Chris Carson132.62.512.10.213.31.7
Willie Snead132.2-12.111.0-1.092.1
Chris Godwin130.91810.11.415.9-13.6
Austin Hooper129.813.910.01.17.60.1
A.J. Green129.521.914.42.400
Donte Moncrief128-7.29.8-0.615.1-5.4
Zay Jones127.4-5.39.8-0.414.2-9
Sony Michel127-14.412.7-1.412.5-6.8
Jordan Reed126.9-4.79.8-0.41.3-1.3
Calvin Ridley126.540.99.73.16.8-4.8
Allen Robinson126.35.211.50.513.3-4.1
Carlos Hyde126.3-34.510.5-2.91.2-0.5
Austin Ekeler125349.62.614.43
Demaryius Thomas124.713.49.61.08.9-0.1
Alshon Jeffery124.68.312.50.815.31.7
Jimmy Graham124.5-11.69.6-0.96.5-3.2
Aaron Jones120.851.911.04.712.67
Jalen Richard119.69.59.20.75.7-1.8
Kerryon Johnson119.621.812.02.200
Nick Chubb118.148.79.13.714.93.4
Devin Funchess116.629.70.24.1-4.1
DeSean Jackson116.131.410.62.900
Mohamed Sanu113.9198.81.514-2.6
D.J. Moore113.425.48.72.015.6-3.9
Kyle Rudolph112.9-5.98.7-0.510.8-8.1
Doug Martin112.9-20.68.7-1.617-7.8
David Njoku112.8-0.49.40.05.51
Antonio Callaway112.8-12.98.7-1.01.7-0.7
Josh Gordon112.423.410.22.112.81.8
Isaiah Crowell111.928.88.62.22.3-0.6
Josh Doctson110.9-139.2-1.18.24.2
Theo Riddick110.6-8.610.1-0.89.10.7
Matt Breida110.433.89.22.800
Derrick Henry109.535.58.42.71334.8
Mark Ingram109.3712.10.813.9-1.6
Quincy Enunwa108.3-19.49.8-1.86.1-0.9
Cole Beasley108.32.38.30.27.3-3.5
Tyler Lockett108768.35.810.8-1.9
Courtland Sutton107.8-2.78.3-0.213.9-10.6
Marlon Mack107.111.511.91.38.90.4
Jermaine Kearse105.4-37.79.6-3.43.1-1.1
Christian Kirk105.318.28.81.500
Marvin Jones10510.811.71.200
Frank Gore103.5-2.38.0-0.27.45.2
Trey Burton103.513.88.01.17.1-2.9
Alex Collins103.111.510.31.200
Dalvin Cook101.51.412.70.219.8-0.5
Robby Anderson99.53.99.00.415.12.5
Mike Davis99.24.58.30.42.71
Cooper Kupp9936.112.44.500
Kelvin Benjamin98.6-34.28.2-2.900
Danny Amendola98.54.48.20.41.50.5
Alfred Blue98.1-16.77.5-1.36.91.2
Rob Gronkowski97.627.19.82.712.712
Leonard Fournette97.3-2.416.2-0.417.4-11.3
Vance McDonald97.115.88.11.36.41.3
Sammy Watkins9718.19.71.800
Javorius Allen95.90.58.70.000
Jordy Nelson94.813.87.91.211.7-0.9
Latavius Murray94.715.87.31.22.4-2
Keelan Cole94.5-9.98.6-0.911.6-3.1
Chester Rogers94.4-7.97.9-0.78.7-0.1
LeGarrette Blount93.2-11.57.2-0.99.9-2.8
Michael Gallup92.2-18.87.1-1.414.2-7.8
Ricky Seals-Jones92.1-24.37.1-1.960.1
Duke Johnson91.211.27.00.91-1.6
Anthony Miller88.818.67.41.61.5-1.5
Ito Smith88.13.77.30.310.30.1
Jeff Heuerman86.7-15.68.7-1.600
Doug Baldwin86.21.68.60.200
Kenny Stills8638.47.23.214.419.1
Marshawn Lynch85.8-6.814.3-1.100
Marquez Valdes-Scantling85.23.87.10.32.51.4
C.J. Uzomah84.20.56.50.04.52.2
Giovani Bernard84.219.40.17.2-3.2
Kendrick Bourne83.4-0.56.40.05.7-1.5
O.J. Howard82.338.28.23.800
Chris Ivory81.4-13.46.8-1.16.9-2.7
Alfred Morris81.1-29.58.1-3.02.3-0.6
Mike Williams80.344.96.23.59-1.5
Laquon Treadwell80.2-10.76.2-0.84.9-0.3
Chris Thompson79.7-211.4-0.38.4-1.6
Seth Roberts79.510.66.60.910.22.4
Tyrell Williams78.739.56.63.35.7-1.3
Jamaal Williams78.7-18.66.1-1.43.4-1.7
Corey Clement77.81.37.10.10.4-0.8
Maurice Harris77.6-20.57.8-2.11.6-1.6
Randall Cobb76.91.811.00.39.26.1
John Ross76.8-2.97.7-0.37.81.3
Cordarrelle Patterson76.635.90.25.37.8
Curtis Samuel76.232.88.53.613.6-1.6
Tajae Sharpe75.9-6.36.3-0.56.5-6.5
Benjamin Watson75.717.60.15.10.3
Royce Freeman74.76.46.80.64.9-1.3
Ty Montgomery74-4.57.4-0.56-4.8
Chris Conley749.16.20.85.8-2.5
Cameron Brate73.510.86.10.910.25
Will Fuller7333.310.44.800
Pierre Garcon71.9-13.39.0-1.700
David Moore71.622.27.22.27.7-7.7
Wendell Smallwood718.37.10.80.7-0.4
Keke Coutee70.4-7.711.7-1.300
Ryan Grant70.1-2.26.4-0.21.41.1
Jarius Wright69.45.25.30.49.5-2.4
Bruce Ellington67.5-7.99.6-1.15.10.6
Chris Hogan66.812.25.10.93-3
Greg Olsen66.413.77.41.500
Taywan Taylor66.37.46.60.710.21.7
Devontae Booker66.34.25.10.32.90.2
Jacquizz Rodgers66.2-2.56.6-0.38.80.6
Ryan Switzer65.7-5.55.1-0.43-1.9
Chris Herndon65.617.36.01.64.2-1.8
Mark Andrews65.211.25.00.92.4-2.4
Bilal Powell65.2-2.99.3-0.400
Spencer Ware65.113.95.91.313.74.2
DeVante Parker65.1-7.88.1-1.06.1-3.6
Evan Engram62.4107.81.36.24.5
Josh Adams62.2-2.56.9-0.33.9-0.3
Nick Boyle62-21.25.6-1.900
Antonio Gates61.8-35.2-0.330.9
Jesse James61.520.95.11.731.8
Tre'Quan Smith61.221.96.12.21.6-1.6
Dante Pettis61.1248.73.412.41.5
Nick Vannett60.60.55.10.01.30.9
Phillip Dorsett60.54.16.70.500
Gerald Everett60.45.25.00.410.4-3.5
Ryan Griffin59.4-11.15.9-1.17.95.1
Rashard Higgins59.425.25.92.55-1.1
Jack Doyle59.33.29.90.500
Zach Pascal59.2-2.76.6-0.39.38.5
Josh Reynolds56.83.37.10.49.5-2.9
Dallas Goedert56.818.75.21.79.15.3
Allen Hurns56.6-2.95.1-0.31.80.1
Rashaad Penny56.513.35.11.23.60.8
Paul Richardson56.32.88.00.400
Jonnu Smith567.85.10.700
Marquise Goodwin55.923.96.22.731
Kyle Juszczyk55.511.24.60.94.4-0.3
Albert Wilson55.535.27.95.000
Jordan Wilkins55.33.95.00.400
Elijah McGuire54.8-1311.0-2.620.2-2.9
Charles Clay53.9-14.55.4-1.52.8-1.2
Geoff Swaim53.32.96.70.400
Jakeem Grant52.97.45.30.700
Wayne Gallman52.7-17.44.8-1.611.1-7.3
Jamison Crowder52.67.18.81.210.46.3
James O'Shaughnessy52.2-144.7-1.36.5-2.3
Rhett Ellison51.72.74.70.200
Tyler Higbee50.93.74.60.31.30.6
Ian Thomas49.7-3.77.1-0.517-0.3
Terrelle Pryor49.23.96.20.500
Chad Williams49.1-20.86.1-2.600
Trent Taylor49-5.34.9-0.52.7-1.1
Geronimo Allison48.713.69.72.700
Vernon Davis48.521.64.01.85.51.6
D.J. Chark47.6-16.25.3-1.800
Marcus Murphy47.3-12.25.9-1.52.80
James Washington47-22.25.2-2.57-3.9
Chase Edmonds46.92.93.60.21.6-0.2
Gus Edwards46.26.15.80.88.3-1.6
Aldrick Robinson45.911.84.21.11.4-1.4
Martavis Bryant45.62.36.50.300
Dontrelle Inman45.3-2.29.1-0.400
Kapri Bibbs45.112.25.61.500
Jordan Thomas4418.74.01.75.41.7
Equanimeous St. Brown44-5.84.9-0.65.1-1.9
Demarcus Robinson43.8-3.34.0-0.311.3-2.1
Torrey Smith43.61.57.30.300
Mike Gesicki42.4-8.83.9-0.82.5-2.5
Robert Foster42.311.85.31.512.94.5
Jordan Matthews4216.74.21.71.9-0.3
Deonte Thompson39.8-8.84.0-0.93.4-1
Jeff Wilson39.7-2.613.2-0.914.1-3.5
Jay Ajayi39.449.91.000
Ted Ginn39.40.79.90.200
Michael Roberts39-25.6-0.31.9-1.9
Andre Holmes38.5-7.93.9-0.800
Trenton Cannon38.40.14.80.05.22.5
Demetrius Harris37.88.64.71.14.51.3
James Develin37.50.43.40.02.63.6
Jaylen Samuels36.37.46.11.216.7-0.5
Brandon Marshall35.9-5.36.0-0.900
Matt LaCosse35.33.13.20.31.10.2
Virgil Green35.34.63.50.500
Tim Patrick35.205.00.017.4-0.8
Marcell Ateman35.1-4.48.8-1.15.61.9
Jordan Leggett35-93.5-0.93-0.7
Jason Croom34.80.93.90.100
Chris Moore33.7-0.12.80.03.5-3.5
Austin Seferian-Jenkins33.4-7.46.7-1.500
Justin Hardy33-5.65.5-0.99.22.8
Josh Bellamy32.1-63.2-0.61.5-1.5
Malcolm Brown325.43.20.500
J.J. Nelson31.4-183.5-2.011.8-5
Rex Burkhead31.1-8.86.2-1.84.9-3.4
Jaron Brown30.926.13.93.31.3-0.3
Lance Kendricks30.9-0.23.10.000
Jordan Akins30.53.72.80.32.83.2
Tyler Eifert30.58.47.62.100
Cody Core30.4-34.3-0.46.7-0.7
Travis Benjamin30.3-1.93.4-0.21.50.6
Damien Williams30.30.14.30.018.80.2
Damion Ratley29.3-1.95.9-0.400
Alex Erickson29.2-13.43.7-1.71.5-0.1
Blake Jarwin28.3-0.83.1-0.110.22.4
Josh Hill28.35.73.50.71.9-1.9
Isaiah McKenzie28.212.87.13.212.54.4
Brandon LaFell289.57.02.400
Bennie Fowler27.9-14.0-0.12.65
Luke Willson27.6-5.92.8-0.600
Derek Carrier27-7.34.5-1.28.42.5
Dan Arnold26.96.14.51.000
DaeSean Hamilton26.62.26.70.615.52.2
Maxx Williams26.29.33.71.32.75.3
Luke Stocker25.54.12.80.51.10.6
Will Dissly25.510.16.42.500
Raheem Mostert25.315.34.22.600
Rod Smith25.2-5.12.5-0.54.41.9
Marvin Hall24.34.62.40.51.1-1.4
Russell Shepard24.111.94.02.06.91.2
Devonta Freeman24-9.912.0-5.000
Breshad Perriman23.94.63.40.737.1
C.J. Ham23.8-3.62.6-0.400
Corey Grant23.7-44.7-0.800
Darren Sproles23.74.37.91.48.34.3
Austin Carr23.773.00.900
Zach Line23.2-3.22.9-0.44.33.2
Logan Thomas23.1-3.43.3-0.53.1-1.6
Keith Kirkwood2311.44.62.32.91.2
Levine Toilolo22.86.82.90.931.6
Mo Alie-Cox22.66.63.81.100
Ronald Jones22.6-2.84.5-0.600
Michael Floyd21.7-10.53.1-1.52.1-2.1
Lee Smith21.56.74.31.33.14.2
Tavon Austin21.416.13.62.700
T.J. Jones20.8-1.52.3-0.21.2-1.2
Justin Hunter20.7-15.65.2-3.900
Scott Simonson20.6-114.1-2.200
Niles Paul20.5-14.1-0.200
Hayden Hurst20.213.40.200
Eric Tomlinson19.8-6.72.8-1.000
Trent Sherfield19.7-0.74.9-0.210.32.4
Kenneth Dixon19.411.36.53.86.88.2
Justin Jackson19.411.63.92.35.7-0.2
Dalton Schultz19.3-3.73.9-0.74.22.5
Stevan Ridley18.9-2.12.7-0.34.32.1
Erik Swoope18.815.92.72.31.1-1.1
Seth DeValve18.1-0.84.5-0.200
Mark Walton18.1-5.63.0-0.900
Josh Perkins18.1-6.46.0-2.100
Jake Butt18-1.56.0-0.500
C.J. Anderson17.62.22.50.300
DeAndre Washington17.2-7.23.4-1.400
Jermaine Gresham16.9-1.12.4-0.21.5-1.5
Cameron Batson16.8-0.62.8-0.100
Andre Roberts16.7-7.23.3-1.400
Cameron Meredith16.310.15.43.400
Trey Quinn16.26.38.13.200
DeAndre Carter160.73.20.11.7-0.7
Taquan Mizzell160.62.70.10.5-0.4
Eric Saubert15.8-63.2-1.24.5-1
Tommy Bohanon15.4-72.6-1.22.8-2.8
Auden Tate15.3-10.35.1-3.400
Ed Dickson14.815.22.52.51.6-0.2
Logan Paulsen14.66.62.41.100
Alex Armah14.4-12.1-0.13.2-3.2
Neal Sterling14.3-3.63.6-0.900
Nick O'Leary14.18.53.52.100
Darren Fells13.914.72.32.500
Elijhaa Penny13.4-1.22.2-0.23.80.9
Cody Latimer13.23.64.41.200
Rico Gathers12.9-5.42.2-0.91.5-0.6
David Grinnage12.9-0.84.3-0.300
Marcus Johnson12.89.23.22.300
Dontrell Hilliard12.64.42.50.93.10.9
Keith Smith12.6-6.44.2-2.100
Anthony Sherman12.57.41.81.12.4-2.2
Deontay Burnett12.4-0.44.1-0.100
Roc Thomas12.4-5.32.5-1.100
Zach Zenner12.33.33.10.88.92.5
Richie James12.12.33.00.600
Dwayne Harris12.1-0.91.7-0.100
Delanie Walker11.8-2.611.8-2.600
Kenjon Barner11.7-4.62.3-0.900
Kalen Ballage11.6-3.71.7-0.500
Tyler Kroft11.5-3.92.3-0.800
Matt Lengel11.4-0.72.3-0.100
Garrett Celek11.20.72.20.11.6-1.6
Brice Butler11.14.72.81.21.77.6
Rishard Matthews11.1-5.42.8-1.41.60
Blake Bell111.12.80.32.70.9
Andy Janovich10.91.71.60.20.20.1
Darius Jennings10.7-0.21.80.000
Antony Auclair10.61.22.10.21.50.7
Kamar Aiken10.40.95.20.500
Shaun Wilson10.2-3.82.0-0.800
Brian Parker9.9-8.42.5-2.15.5-4
Jawill Davis9.9-5.25.0-2.600
Xavier Grimble9.72.31.90.500
David Morgan9.6-11.9-0.200
Mike Boone9.4-2.61.6-0.400
De'Anthony Thomas9.23.33.11.100
Andy Jones9-6.14.5-3.13.4-1.9
A.J. Derby8.75.12.91.700
Mike Gillislee8.7-2.52.2-0.600
Rashad Greene8.1-0.32.0-0.12.7-0.7
Tyler Ervin7.8-1.32.0-0.300
Ben Braunecker7.8-3.42.0-0.900
Orson Charles7.7-2.41.5-0.51.50.4
Kevin White7.72.33.91.200
Samaje Perine7.7-1.72.6-0.600
Durham Smythe7.7-31.9-0.800
Byron Marshall7.4-2.23.7-1.15-0.3
Derrick Willies7.41.77.41.700
Dwayne Washington7.4-2.82.5-0.900
Vyncint Smith7.4-3.63.7-1.800
Corey Coleman7.331.80.833.3
Jacob Hollister7.31.93.71.000
Ray-Ray McCloud7.3-0.51.5-0.100
Alan Cross7.2-4.31.8-1.100
Jeremy Sprinkle7.2-7.22.4-2.400
Jamaal Charles6.8-3.43.4-1.700
MyCole Pruitt6.61.91.70.51.40.5
Tyler Conklin6.3-0.92.1-0.33.1-1
Dion Sims6.3-3.43.2-1.700
Nick Williams6.2-2.52.1-0.800
Leonte Carroo6.112.73.16.400
Josh Malone6.1-3.93.1-2.000
Jeremy Kerley6-3.36.0-3.300
Chad Beebe5.82.12.91.100
Noah Brown5.8-0.72.9-0.400
Patrick DiMarco5.73.51.40.91.4-1.4
Victor Bolden5.5-3.55.5-3.500
Chris Manhertz5.5-4.32.8-2.200
Adam Shaheen5.43.15.43.100
Ricky Ortiz5.4-2.72.7-1.400
Marcedes Lewis5.31.61.30.400
Roosevelt Nix5.31.31.80.400
Mike Wallace5.2-5.25.2-5.200
Ameer Abdullah5.10.81.30.200
Brian Quick5.1-0.32.6-0.200
Tre Madden50.81.00.200
Dwayne Allen50.71.70.200
T.J. Logan4.90.51.60.200
Derrick Coleman4.9-0.91.0-0.200
Charone Peake4.7-0.21.6-0.100
Hakeem Valles4.7-1.62.4-0.800
Robert Turbin4.6-2.32.3-1.200
Brandon Powell4.6-34.6-3.000
Jordan Franks4.51.21.50.400
Malik Turner4.5-0.52.3-0.300
Terrance Williams4.5-0.72.3-0.400
Robert Tonyan Jr.4.49.51.53.200
Shelton Gibson4.41.42.20.700
Cole Wick4.4-4.44.4-4.400
C.J. Prosise3.912.00.500
Benny Cunningham3.8-1.11.3-0.400
Darrius Heyward-Bey3.7-2.51.2-0.80.3-1
Brandon Bolden3.616.41.88.22.916.1
Khadarel Hodge3.60.11.80.100
Sammie Coates3.6-1.41.8-0.700
De'Lance Turner3.30.81.70.400
Russell Gage3.30.31.70.200
Jonathan Williams3.3-2.21.1-0.700
Freddie Martino3.3-3.33.3-3.300
Tommylee Lewis3.29.61.64.81.51.5
Jeremy Hill3.20.93.20.900
Jake Kumerow3.2-1.13.2-1.100
Keon Hatcher3.2-1.43.2-1.400
Marcus Kemp3.1-1.41.6-0.700
Brandon Wilds3.1-1.61.0-0.500
Jalen Tolliver31.23.01.231.2
Damiere Byrd3-1.21.5-0.600
Justin Watson3-1.51.5-0.800
Jamize Olawale2.90.41.50.200
Jonathan Stewart2.8-1.10.9-0.400
Derek Watt2.7-1.20.9-0.41.3-0.1
Detrez Newsome2.7-1.21.4-0.600
Taiwan Jones2.7-2.71.4-1.400
Ross Dwelley2.5-0.72.5-0.700
Tyrone Swoopes2.21.12.21.100
Jehu Chesson2.1-2.51.1-1.30.7-1.1
J.D. McKissic2-22.0-2.000
J'Mon Moore1.90.11.90.100
Darrel Williams1.801.80.01.80
Mike Burton1.8-0.21.8-0.200
David Fluellen1.8-0.20.9-0.100
Sean Culkin1.71.71.71.700
Stacy Coley1.7-1.71.7-1.700
Brandon Zylstra1.61.71.61.700
Cam Phillips1.60.31.60.300
Khari Lee1.6-0.11.6-0.100
Rob Kelley1.6-0.80.8-0.400
Jeremy McNichols1.6-1.21.6-1.200
Darrell Daniels1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Gehrig Dieter1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Johnny Holton1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Riley McCarron1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Ryan Hewitt1.5-1.51.5-1.500
Tim White1.411.41.000
Geremy Davis1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Isaiah Ford1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Pharoh Cooper1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Bobo Wilson1.30.51.30.51.30.5
Javon Wims1.2-1.21.2-1.200
Christine Michael1-0.11.0-0.100
Cameron Artis-Payne0.9-0.30.5-0.20.50
Brian Hill0.6-0.10.6-0.10.6-0.1
David Williams0.5-0.30.5-0.300
Rod Streater0.5-1.60.5-1.600
Justin Davis0.41.50.41.50.41.5
J.J. Jones0.1-0.10.1-0.100

Observations

  • Only five players had more receiving expected points than Ezekiel Elliott, who led all players in total EP. His 13 targets were tied for the team lead, and his 28 rushing attempts led the league. Amari Cooper’s arrival in Dallas has revived not only his and Dak Prescott’s seasons, but also the entire Dallas offense. dal-coopSince Cooper’s trade, Dallas is playing at a much faster pace, attempting six extra passes per game. Yet their passing and offensive efficiency has increased. Elliott has been one of the main beneficiaries. zeke-cooperElliott now leads all players in total EP.
  • Since joining the Cowboys, Cooper himself has seen a drastic increase not only in opportunity, but also in efficiency — even before last week. cooper-splitsOf course, he kept this trend going in Week 14. His 13 targets tied Elliott for the team lead and were second only to Tyreek Hill’s 14. He turned his 13 targets into 217 yards and three TDs, including the game-winning TD in overtime. His 49.7 PPR points led all players in Week 14, but he was not the most efficient player this week.
  • That would be Derrick Henry, whose 47.8 PPR points were 34.8 more than what we would expect based on his opportunity. On the season, Henry now has a grand total of … 35.5 fantasy points over expectation. This is Henry’s season on the per-game level.henry_epWeek 14 was the first time all season that Henry has averaged more than 5.3 yards per carry in a game. It’s only the fourth time in his 46-game career (including playoffs) that he’s rushed for more than 100 yards. In a single game Henry raised his career YPC average from a below-league-average 4.1 to a near-elite 4.5.2
  • One of the season’s best stories has been undrafted free agent Phillip Lindsay. Lindsay has already scored over 200 PPR points through only 13 games of his rookie season. Since 2000, only one other UDFA, Dominic Rhodes, has scored more than 200 points in his rookie season, and Lindsay is currently well ahead of the pace Rhodes set in 2001. Rhodes and LeGarrette Blount are the only UDFAs to rush for over 1,000 yards in their rookie seasons since 2000. Lindsay needs only 33 more yards to reach that mark, and has more than either Rhodes or Blount did through 14 weeks.udfa rookie He is currently second in the league in rushing FPOE. Last week marked only the third time all season that third-round pick Royce Freeman outgained him on the ground. But make no mistake — this is still Lindsay’s backfield. His 19.2 total EP in Week 14 ranked in the top 12, and only two RBs had more than Lindsay’s seven targets.
  • One of those RBs was the aforementioned Elliott. The other was David Johnson. Johnson’s 21.9 total EP ranked seventh on the week. His 10 targets were his season high. Somehow he only managed to gain 12 yards on those targets. Arizona led Detroit in time of possession, total plays, total yards, yards per play, first downs, and third-down conversions. But they scored only three points, while allowing the Lions to score 17. It’s hard to know exactly who to blame for Johnson’s poor performance in 2018. The one thing the Cardinals appear to have more of than any other team is blameworthy candidates. Shockingly, Johnson is still among the top 12 RBs in PPR scoring. You’re definitely not happy with his performance this season, but if your team is bad, he’s not the only reason.

  1. Rushing expected points plus receiving expected points.  (back)
  2. If he could sustain this average he’d be in the same tier as Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, and Michael Turner.  (back)
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