revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Some WRs On the Verge of Bouncebacks, and Some, Maybe Not: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13

By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?

Expected points (EP) tell most of that story. Looking at the leaders in total expected points helps us understand how players score their points, and whether we should expect that scoring to continue.

Expected points measure the number of fantasy points a target or carry should score based on historical averages for targets and carries with the same down, distance, and line of scrimmage. Carries at the opponent’s 1-yard line are much more valuable than carries at the 50-yard line. Expected points express that difference numerically.

Total Expected Points Leaders

The following table displays the non-quarterback leaders in total expected points1 for the season and in Week 13. Below the table I’ll offer a few observations.

PLAYER2018 totEP2018 totFPOE2018 EP/G2018 FPOE/GWk 13 totEPWk 13 totFPOE
Saquon Barkley257.544.121.53.723.5-5.9
Todd Gurley254.770.221.25.923.38.2
Alvin Kamara245.338.220.43.224-8.8
Ezekiel Elliott239.824.520.02.020.25.4
Christian McCaffrey23662.619.75.21912.1
James Conner234.63319.62.821.41
Adam Thielen222.548.118.54.017.1-3.3
Antonio Brown222.233.618.52.819.911.5
Julio Jones217.120.318.11.712.8-9
Davante Adams208.753.817.44.519.93.4
James White207.725.117.32.115.23.6
Odell Beckham Jr.204.915.217.11.314.8-2.3
Stefon Diggs201.86.918.30.68.31.6
Keenan Allen195.924.216.32.031.92.9
David Johnson194.8-2.816.2-0.211.5-3.3
Juju Smith-Schuster194.324.416.22.013.5-2.6
DeAndre Hopkins193.545.316.13.818.8-2.7
Travis Kelce193.24816.14.024.516.3
Jarvis Landry193.2-41.916.1-3.514.12.2
Zach Ertz190.336.515.93.015.22.1
Michael Thomas180.670.415.15.912.8-3.8
Tyreek Hill177.77814.86.512.9-6.9
Kareem Hunt177.452.816.14.800
Robert Woods174.129.214.52.415.73.1
Melvin Gordon167.879.716.88.000
Mike Evans165.842.313.83.58.9-0.1
Emmanuel Sanders163.429.513.62.58.1-2.2
T.J. Yeldon159.99.413.30.814.7-1.2
Golden Tate156.32.414.20.2129.5
Joe Mixon154.415.715.41.68.13.4
Tyler Boyd15445.112.83.812.43.3
Eric Ebron153.330.812.82.625.3-8.1
Corey Davis153.12.712.80.213.60.8
Kenny Golladay151.919.312.71.613.7-5.7
Brandin Cooks150.443.313.73.99.21
George Kittle148.721.612.41.814.2-1.2
Ty Hilton145.921.814.62.221.3-5.6
Kenyan Drake145.617.412.11.59.62.8
Tarik Cohen145.646.812.13.926.24.4
Dion Lewis145-10.712.1-0.97.8-2.4
Michael Crabtree142.6-23.511.9-2.06.30.3
Adrian Peterson139.527.811.62.34.311.5
Jordan Howard137.9-21.111.5-1.814.8-5.8
Lamar Miller135.78.312.30.810.52
Tevin Coleman134.615.911.21.36.7-4.6
Phillip Lindsay134.457.211.24.812.316.6
John Brown134-8.511.2-0.75.5-5.5
Peyton Barber133.1-19.511.1-1.614.3-3.8
LeSean McCoy132.3-22.512.0-2.012.4-2
Nelson Agholor130.8-17.610.9-1.513.6-4
Taylor Gabriel130.4-4.710.9-0.411.2-6.5
Nyheim Hines129.7-4.110.8-0.316-1.5
Larry Fitzgerald129.5-1.710.8-0.110.7-2.9
A.J. Green129.42214.42.41.30.4
Jared Cook12931.910.82.711.811.2
Sterling Shepard126.210.310.50.98.8-2
Dede Westbrook125.96.210.50.57.8-2.4
Jordan Reed125.5-3.310.5-0.36.8-0.3
Carlos Hyde125.1-3411.4-3.18-3.3
Amari Cooper124.522.811.32.112.72.8
Willie Snead123.1-14.111.2-1.34.1-2.3
Adam Humphries12321.710.31.815.83.3
Julian Edelman122.74.115.30.518.1-9.1
Austin Hooper122.213.810.21.210.15.3
Calvin Ridley119.845.610.03.87.6-2.4
Kerryon Johnson119.621.812.02.200
Chris Carson119.40.711.90.117.6-3.8
Jimmy Graham118-8.49.8-0.716.2-3.2
DeSean Jackson116.231.310.62.800
Demaryius Thomas115.613.79.61.19.2-3
Chris Godwin115.131.59.62.69.711.4
Sony Michel114.6-7.712.7-0.913.1-5.1
Jalen Richard113.911.39.50.98.86.8
Zay Jones113.23.79.40.313.69.1
Allen Robinson113.19.211.30.915-2.1
Donte Moncrief112.2-1.19.4-0.16.30.7
Devin Funchess112.26.410.20.653
Antonio Callaway111.1-12.29.3-1.092.4
Austin Ekeler110.930.79.22.616.3-7
Matt Breida110.533.79.22.86.12.6
Isaiah Crowell109.629.49.12.517.2-2.5
Alshon Jeffery109.36.612.10.79.5-3.4
Aaron Jones108.244.910.84.5114.2
David Njoku107-1.19.7-0.17.4-3.6
Christian Kirk105.318.28.81.514.2-3.5
Marvin Jones104.910.911.71.200
Nick Chubb103.245.38.63.810.26
Alex Collins103.111.510.31.200
Josh Doctson102.7-17.29.3-1.68.3-0.2
Quincy Enunwa102.3-18.610.2-1.99.5-6.6
Jermaine Kearse102.3-36.610.2-3.700
Kyle Rudolph102.12.28.50.24.52.3
Theo Riddick101.6-9.410.2-0.910-1.2
Cole Beasley100.95.98.40.54.5-1.6
Mohamed Sanu99.821.78.31.86.50.2
Josh Gordon99.621.610.02.26.48.4
Cooper Kupp98.936.212.44.500
Kelvin Benjamin98.5-34.18.2-2.85.7-1.7
Marlon Mack98.211.112.31.44.8-0.5
D.J. Moore97.929.28.22.414.7-4.2
Tyler Lockett97.277.98.16.53.99.3
Danny Amendola973.98.80.400
Sammy Watkins96.818.39.71.800
Derrick Henry96.50.78.00.110.52
Mike Davis96.43.68.80.33.1-2.1
Trey Burton96.416.78.01.42-2
Frank Gore96.1-7.58.0-0.64.9-0.8
Javorius Allen95.90.58.70.000
Doug Martin95.8-12.78.0-1.118.8-4.1
Mark Ingram95.48.611.91.17.8-3
Courtland Sutton93.97.97.80.79.49.1
Latavius Murray92.317.87.71.54.4-1
Alfred Blue91.3-187.6-1.56-0.6
Vance McDonald90.714.58.21.311.5-4.7
Duke Johnson90.112.97.51.14.5-1.3
Anthony Miller87.220.27.91.85.41.7
Jeff Heuerman86.8-15.78.7-1.600
Ricky Seals-Jones86.1-24.47.2-2.05-3
Doug Baldwin861.88.60.28.61.6
Marshawn Lynch85.8-6.814.3-1.100
Chester Rogers85.6-7.77.8-0.700
Rob Gronkowski84.715.39.41.750.6
Robby Anderson84.31.58.40.211.9-3.1
LeGarrette Blount83.4-8.87.0-0.79.9-3.8
Jordy Nelson8314.87.51.317.12.6
Keelan Cole82.9-6.88.3-0.730.6
O.J. Howard82.338.28.23.800
Dalvin Cook81.91.711.70.219-0.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling81.93.27.40.311.4-4.6
C.J. Uzomah79.7-1.76.6-0.19.8-1.5
Leonard Fournette79.69.215.91.800
Alfred Morris78.9-298.8-3.200
Michael Gallup78-116.5-0.910.91.7
Ito Smith77.93.57.10.34.9-1.7
Kendrick Bourne77.51.26.50.110.5-0.5
Corey Clement77.527.80.27.13.3
Giovani Bernard76.84.49.60.613.5-2.9
Maurice Harris75.9-18.88.4-2.11.5-1.5
Jamaal Williams75.4-176.3-1.48.6-1.9
Laquon Treadwell75.2-10.36.3-0.92.70.6
Chris Ivory74.5-10.76.8-1.02.9-2.5
Tyrell Williams73.140.76.63.72.8-0.4
Will Fuller7333.310.44.800
Pierre Garcon71.9-13.39.0-1.700
Kenny Stills71.619.36.51.810.43.3
Chris Thompson71.4-0.511.9-0.18.2-3.5
Cordarrelle Patterson71.4-4.96.0-0.44.23.7
Mike Williams71.446.36.03.94.43.8
Benjamin Watson70.60.77.80.100
Keke Coutee70.5-7.811.8-1.300
Wendell Smallwood70.48.67.81.000
Royce Freeman69.97.67.00.87.1-2.3
Tajae Sharpe69.30.36.30.09.8-1.7
Seth Roberts69.38.26.30.79.5-4
John Ross69-4.27.7-0.55.5-2
Ryan Grant68.6-3.26.9-0.32.9-2.9
Chris Conley68.311.56.21.013-1.5
Ty Montgomery680.37.60.010.10.4
Randall Cobb67.8-4.411.3-0.77.6-2.1
Greg Olsen65.914.27.31.61.50.8
Bilal Powell65.2-2.99.3-0.400
David Moore63.8307.13.300
Chris Hogan63.615.45.31.331
Devontae Booker63.34.15.30.33.52.7
Cameron Brate63.165.70.511.3-4.7
Mark Andrews62.913.55.21.14.53.2
Ryan Switzer62.6-3.55.2-0.33-0.1
Curtis Samuel62.434.67.84.317.8-2.2
Bruce Ellington62.3-8.410.4-1.416.5-6
Nick Boyle62-21.25.6-1.94.2-2.5
Chris Herndon61.219.36.11.98.6-3.5
Phillip Dorsett60.54.16.70.500
Jarius Wright59.97.65.00.64.71.7
Tre'Quan Smith59.623.56.62.62.4-2.4
Jack Doyle59.33.29.90.500
Nick Vannett59.2-0.35.40.01.40
DeVante Parker58.8-48.4-0.613.31
Antonio Gates58.7-3.85.3-0.31.6-1.6
Jesse James58.519.15.31.74.9-3.2
Josh Adams58.3-2.27.3-0.314.4-5.9
Jacquizz Rodgers57.5-3.26.4-0.400
Paul Richardson56.32.88.00.400
Taywan Taylor56.15.76.20.67.36.1
Evan Engram56.15.68.00.800
Jonnu Smith567.85.10.75.6-0.7
Albert Wilson55.435.37.95.000
Jordan Wilkins55.245.00.44.5-3.5
Allen Hurns54.8-35.5-0.300
Rashard Higgins54.326.46.02.979.2
Geoff Swaim53.32.96.70.400
Rashaad Penny52.912.55.31.33.19.4
Marquise Goodwin52.922.96.62.900
Jakeem Grant52.97.45.30.700
Rhett Ellison51.62.84.70.310.5-2.3
Ryan Griffin51.6-16.35.7-1.81.50.7
Spencer Ware51.39.85.11.014.5-2.3
Kyle Juszczyk51.311.34.71.04.30.7
Charles Clay51-13.25.7-1.510.9
Gerald Everett508.74.50.85-3.3
Zach Pascal49.9-11.26.2-1.41.51.3
Tyler Higbee49.63.15.00.34.6-0.7
Terrelle Pryor49.23.96.20.500
Chad Williams49-20.76.1-2.600
Geronimo Allison48.713.69.72.700
Dante Pettis48.722.58.13.81217.7
Dallas Goedert47.713.44.81.35.3-5.3
D.J. Chark47.6-16.25.3-1.800
Josh Reynolds47.36.26.80.99.6-5.7
Trent Taylor46.2-4.15.1-0.51.40.7
James O'Shaughnessy45.7-11.74.6-1.230.9
Martavis Bryant45.62.36.50.300
Chase Edmonds45.433.80.3812.6
Dontrelle Inman45.2-2.19.0-0.49.6-6.2
Kapri Bibbs45.112.25.61.500
Marcus Murphy44.5-12.26.4-1.70.50.2
Aldrick Robinson44.413.34.41.314.1-5.4
Torrey Smith43.51.67.30.300
Vernon Davis42.920.13.91.83.6-0.1
Jamison Crowder42.30.78.50.17.2-0.1
Wayne Gallman41.6-10.14.2-1.05.4-3
Jordan Matthews40.1174.51.961.4
Mike Gesicki39.9-6.34.0-0.600
James Washington39.9-18.25.0-2.300
Jay Ajayi39.449.91.000
Ted Ginn39.40.79.90.200
Equanimeous St. Brown38.8-3.84.9-0.51.5-1.5
Jordan Thomas38.517.13.91.74.77.5
Andre Holmes38.5-7.93.9-0.800
Gus Edwards37.87.85.41.19.1-0.9
Michael Roberts36.60.46.10.100
Deonte Thompson36.4-7.84.0-0.91.50.7
Brandon Marshall35.9-5.36.0-0.900
Virgil Green35.24.73.50.500
James Develin34.9-3.23.5-0.386.4
Jason Croom34.80.93.90.100
Elijah McGuire34.5-108.6-2.55.8-3.3
Matt LaCosse34.22.93.40.31.5-1.5
Demetrius Harris33.47.24.81.0111.9
Austin Seferian-Jenkins33.4-7.46.7-1.500
Trenton Cannon33.2-2.44.7-0.33.40.1
Ian Thomas32.6-3.35.4-0.67.32.3
Demarcus Robinson32.6-1.33.3-0.122.8
Jordan Leggett32-8.33.6-0.93.9-0.1
Malcolm Brown31.95.53.20.60.9-0.1
Lance Kendricks30.9-0.23.10.000
Josh Bellamy30.6-4.53.4-0.51.9-0.1
Tyler Eifert30.58.47.62.100
Chris Moore30.33.32.80.32.50.6
Jaron Brown29.626.44.23.86.515.2
Marcell Ateman29.5-6.39.8-2.16.72.9
Robert Foster29.47.34.21.06.3-2.6
Damion Ratley29.3-1.95.9-0.41.10.1
Travis Benjamin28.7-2.43.6-0.33.88.7
Brandon LaFell28.19.47.02.400
Alex Erickson27.7-13.34.0-1.92-0.8
Luke Willson27.6-5.92.8-0.63.3-1.5
Jordan Akins27.60.62.80.11.50.8
Dan Arnold26.96.14.51.03.80.2
Josh Hill26.47.63.81.100
Rex Burkhead26.2-5.46.6-1.46.8-0.7
Jeff Wilson25.60.912.80.520.60.8
Will Dissly25.510.16.42.500
Bennie Fowler25.4-6.14.2-1.02.8-0.7
Raheem Mostert25.315.34.22.600
Luke Stocker24.53.43.10.400
Devonta Freeman24-9.912.0-5.000
Cody Core23.8-2.44.0-0.46.33.7
Corey Grant23.8-4.14.8-0.800
C.J. Ham23.7-3.52.6-0.42.30.8
Justin Hardy23.7-8.34.7-1.700
Austin Carr23.67.13.00.900
Maxx Williams23.63.93.90.700
Marvin Hall23.35.92.60.700
Ronald Jones22.6-2.84.5-0.61.7-1.5
Mo Alie-Cox22.66.63.81.100
Tavon Austin21.316.23.62.700
Breshad Perriman21-2.63.5-0.42.71.9
Rod Smith20.8-72.3-0.81.5-1.3
Justin Hunter20.7-15.65.2-3.95.3-5.3
Scott Simonson20.6-114.1-2.27.3-2.8
Niles Paul20.5-14.1-0.200
Hayden Hurst20.213.40.200
Keith Kirkwood20.110.25.02.64.75.3
Logan Thomas20-1.83.3-0.300
Eric Tomlinson19.8-6.72.8-1.000
Levine Toilolo19.75.32.80.88.94.1
Michael Floyd19.7-8.53.3-1.42.7-0.8
T.J. Jones19.6-0.32.50.01.52
J.J. Nelson19.6-132.5-1.600
Jaylen Samuels19.48.13.91.65.65.9
Zach Line19-6.52.7-0.900
Derek Carrier18.5-9.73.7-1.900
Lee Smith18.32.64.60.743.1
Seth DeValve18.1-0.84.5-0.23.8-0.9
Blake Jarwin18.1-3.22.3-0.411.2
Mark Walton18.1-5.63.0-0.90.40.6
Josh Perkins18.1-6.46.0-2.100
Jake Butt18-1.56.0-0.500
Tim Patrick17.80.83.00.100
Erik Swoope17.7173.02.80.70.7
C.J. Anderson17.62.22.50.300
DeAndre Washington17.2-7.23.4-1.41.4-0.7
Russell Shepard17.110.83.42.22.811.1
Andre Roberts16.8-7.33.4-1.53.20.6
Cameron Batson16.8-0.62.8-0.12.7-1
Cameron Meredith16.310.15.43.400
Trey Quinn16.26.38.13.200
Isaiah McKenzie15.68.55.22.85.63
Taquan Mizzell15.513.10.24.30
Jermaine Gresham15.50.32.60.100
Darren Sproles15.30.17.70.12.16.1
Auden Tate15.3-10.35.1-3.400
Dalton Schultz15.1-6.23.8-1.64.6-2.9
Stevan Ridley14.7-4.32.5-0.700
Logan Paulsen14.66.62.41.100
DeAndre Carter14.41.33.60.310-0.8
Neal Sterling14.3-3.63.6-0.900
Nick O'Leary14.18.53.52.11.30.6
Darren Fells13.914.72.32.500
Justin Jackson13.711.83.43.05.210
Ed Dickson13.215.42.63.100
Cody Latimer13.23.64.41.200
Marcus Johnson12.99.13.22.300
David Grinnage12.9-0.84.3-0.300
Tommy Bohanon12.7-4.32.5-0.900
Kenneth Dixon12.63.16.31.64.70.6
Keith Smith12.6-6.44.2-2.100
Roc Thomas12.5-5.42.5-1.100
Deontay Burnett12.4-0.44.1-0.100
Richie James12.12.33.00.63.3-3.3
Dwayne Harris12.1-0.91.7-0.11.80.1
Delanie Walker11.7-2.511.7-2.500
Kenjon Barner11.7-4.62.3-0.900
Kalen Ballage11.6-3.71.7-0.52-1.7
Tyler Kroft11.5-3.92.3-0.800
Rico Gathers11.5-4.92.3-1.000
Matt Lengel11.4-0.72.3-0.13.3-1.4
Damien Williams11.30.11.90.060.5
Alex Armah11.32.11.90.400
Eric Saubert11.3-52.8-1.300
DaeSean Hamilton110.13.70.000
Andy Janovich10.71.61.80.32.7-1
Darius Jennings10.7-0.21.80.01.4-1.4
Kamar Aiken10.40.95.20.500
Anthony Sherman10.29.51.71.600
Shaun Wilson10.2-3.82.0-0.800
Jawill Davis9.9-5.25.0-2.600
Xavier Grimble9.72.31.90.500
Dontrell Hilliard9.63.42.40.962
Garrett Celek9.62.32.40.600
David Morgan9.6-11.9-0.200
Trent Sherfield9.5-3.23.2-1.14.2-1.1
Elijhaa Penny9.5-21.9-0.41.4-1.4
Mike Boone9.5-2.71.6-0.500
Rishard Matthews9.5-5.43.2-1.800
Brice Butler9.4-2.93.1-1.06.40.1
De'Anthony Thomas9.13.43.01.100
Antony Auclair9.10.52.30.100
A.J. Derby8.75.12.91.700
Mike Gillislee8.7-2.52.2-0.600
Blake Bell8.30.22.80.100
Ben Braunecker7.8-3.42.0-0.92.4-2.4
Tyler Ervin7.8-1.32.0-0.300
Kevin White7.72.33.91.200
Samaje Perine7.7-1.72.6-0.600
Durham Smythe7.7-31.9-0.800
Vyncint Smith7.5-3.73.8-1.900
Derrick Willies7.41.77.41.700
Dwayne Washington7.4-2.82.5-0.900
Jacob Hollister7.31.93.71.000
Ray-Ray McCloud7.3-0.51.5-0.100
Jeremy Sprinkle7.2-7.22.4-2.400
Alan Cross7.1-4.21.8-1.11.5-0.2
Jamaal Charles6.9-3.53.5-1.800
Dion Sims6.3-3.43.2-1.700
Nick Williams6.2-2.52.1-0.800
Orson Charles6.2-2.81.6-0.700
Leonte Carroo6.112.73.16.400
Josh Malone6.1-3.93.1-2.000
Jeremy Kerley6-3.36.0-3.300
Noah Brown5.8-0.72.9-0.41.60.3
Chad Beebe5.82.12.91.100
Andy Jones5.6-4.25.6-4.200
Victor Bolden5.5-3.55.5-3.500
Chris Manhertz5.5-4.32.8-2.200
Adam Shaheen5.43.15.43.15.43.1
Rashad Greene5.40.41.80.100
Ricky Ortiz5.4-2.72.7-1.400
Marcedes Lewis5.31.61.30.400
Roosevelt Nix5.31.31.80.400
MyCole Pruitt5.21.41.70.51.40
Brian Quick5.2-0.42.6-0.200
Mike Wallace5.2-5.25.2-5.200
Ameer Abdullah50.91.30.200
Tre Madden50.81.00.200
Dwayne Allen50.71.70.200
T.J. Logan4.90.51.60.20.7-0.2
Derrick Coleman4.9-0.91.0-0.200
Charone Peake4.7-0.21.6-0.100
Hakeem Valles4.7-1.62.4-0.800
Robert Turbin4.6-2.32.3-1.200
Brandon Powell4.6-34.6-3.000
Jordan Franks4.51.21.50.41.7-1.7
Malik Turner4.5-0.52.3-0.31.5-0.4
Terrance Williams4.5-0.72.3-0.400
Robert Tonyan Jr.4.49.51.53.21.30.2
Shelton Gibson4.41.42.20.700
Brian Parker4.4-4.41.5-1.500
Patrick DiMarco4.34.91.41.61.43.4
Corey Coleman4.3-0.31.4-0.100
Cole Wick4.3-4.34.3-4.300
C.J. Prosise3.912.00.500
Benny Cunningham3.8-1.11.3-0.400
Khadarel Hodge3.60.11.80.100
Sammie Coates3.6-1.41.8-0.700
Darrius Heyward-Bey3.4-1.51.7-0.81.8-1.8
Zach Zenner3.40.81.10.30.60.1
Freddie Martino3.4-3.43.4-3.400
Russell Gage3.30.31.70.21.70
De'Lance Turner3.30.81.70.400
Jonathan Williams3.3-2.21.1-0.700
Jake Kumerow3.2-1.13.2-1.13.2-1.1
Jeremy Hill3.20.93.20.900
Tyler Conklin3.20.11.60.100
Keon Hatcher3.2-1.43.2-1.400
Marcus Kemp3.1-1.41.6-0.700
Brandon Wilds3.1-1.61.0-0.500
Justin Watson3-1.51.5-0.81.5-1.5
Damiere Byrd3-1.21.5-0.600
Jamize Olawale2.90.41.50.200
Jonathan Stewart2.8-1.10.9-0.400
Taiwan Jones2.7-2.71.4-1.400
Detrez Newsome2.6-1.11.3-0.600
Ross Dwelley2.5-0.72.5-0.700
Byron Marshall2.4-1.92.4-1.900
Tyrone Swoopes2.21.12.21.100
J.D. McKissic2-22.0-2.02-2
J'Mon Moore202.00.000
David Fluellen1.8-0.20.9-0.100
Mike Burton1.8-0.21.8-0.200
Sean Culkin1.71.71.71.700
Stacy Coley1.7-1.71.7-1.700
Gehrig Dieter1.6-1.61.6-1.61.6-1.6
Tommylee Lewis1.68.21.68.200
Brandon Zylstra1.61.71.61.700
Cam Phillips1.60.31.60.300
Khari Lee1.6-0.11.6-0.100
Rob Kelley1.6-0.80.8-0.400
Jeremy McNichols1.6-1.21.6-1.200
Darrell Daniels1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Johnny Holton1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Riley McCarron1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Ryan Hewitt1.5-1.51.5-1.500
Isaiah Ford1.4-1.41.4-1.41.4-1.4
Tim White1.411.41.000
Geremy Davis1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Jehu Chesson1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Pharoh Cooper1.4-1.41.4-1.41.4-1.4
Derek Watt1.3-10.7-0.500
Javon Wims1.2-1.21.2-1.200
Christine Michael1-0.11.0-0.100
Brandon Bolden0.70.30.70.30.70.3
David Williams0.5-0.30.5-0.300
Cameron Artis-Payne0.5-0.40.5-0.400
Rod Streater0.5-1.60.5-1.600
J.J. Jones0.1-0.10.1-0.100

Observations

  • Keenan Allen’s 31.9 total expected points was the most by any player in Week 13. After a slow start to the season, Allen has exploded since the Chargers Week 9 bye. He leads all wide receivers in targets, receptions, receiving expected points, and PPR during that stretch.allen9-17
  • Not all players are trending in the right direction, however. DeAndre Hopkins started the season with five straight double-digit-target games. In the eight weeks since then, he’s had only two. It’s important to note that Deshaun Watson has attempted more than 25 passes in only one of those games.2 Hopkins’ target share has remained stable throughout the season.Screen Shot 2018-12-05 at 4.43.58 PM In closer games in which Houston is forced to throw more, Hopkins should get back up to double-digit targets. The last time Houston played Indianapolis, Will Fuller was active. Keke Coutee was targeted 15 times. Hopkins still managed 12 targets, which he turned into 10 catches for 169 yards and a score. Another big week may be coming.
  • Week 13 saw the reemergence of Antonio Brown, as he logged his first double-digit reception game of the season. He had six such games in 2017. It was also his first game in 2018 with more than 117 receiving yards. He also had six of those games in 2017. Sunday’s game might comfort those who refuse to believe Brown has lost a step. But even with that performance he is still having his worst season since 2013. And this is despite the fact that his targets and receiving EP are consistent with his previous seasons.ab_14-18 On a per-target basis, Brown is well below the baseline he’s set over the last few years. If your dynasty league has no trade deadline, now might be the time to consider moving on from Brown.
  • Odell Beckham had eight double-digit target games in the first 10 weeks of the season. He’s had none in the most recent three weeks. His expected points and his actual points have been down as a result. 3obj_l3 Unlike Hopkins, Beckham has failed to crest a 25 percent target share in any of the last three weeks, a number he surpassed in all but two games prior to this stretch. However, looking closer, we see Beckham’s market share of air yards has increased in the last three weeks. For that reason his weighted opportunity rating has remained stable. Expect fantasy scoring to follow this opportunity. On the other hand, Washington has held opposing top WRs to an average of just 16.5 points on the season.wasvwrSo maybe this isn’t the week.

  1. Rushing expected points plus receiving expected points.  (back)
  2. He did so in Week 13, a game in which Hopkins had 12 targets.  (back)
  3. Though this does not take into account his passing EP. He threw his second TD pass of the season on Sunday, and is now responsible for both of the Giants’ two longest TD passes in 2018. I wouldn’t bet on this to be an every-week occurrence.  (back)
Find An article
Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Search in posts
Search in pages

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

Mecole Hardman’s ADP Is Weird for a Couple of Reasons

  When the Chiefs traded up in the 2019 second round, the RotoViz draft room was abuzz. Kansas City was obviously moving up to select the replacement for Tyreek Hill. This was the pick that was going to make a fantasy hero. The Chiefs love athleticism in their draft picks,

Read More

Which Rookies are High-Stakes Drafters Targeting?

  Having the top pick in a high-stakes dynasty league is typically a double-edged sword: According to recent history, the consensus pick at the 1.01 has at times in their careers been valued as among the most coveted assets in fantasy. But, unless you traded for that pick, having it

Read More
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.