We’re staying down in Florida for another week as the tour heads from PGA National to Bay Hill Club and Lodge. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has been held at Bay Hill – under many names – dating back to 1979. It’s a par 72 course that plays right around 7,400 yards. We’re looking at Tifeagle Bermudagrass greens this week. Over the past five years, the course has been anywhere from the ninth to the 28th most difficult course on Tour with winning scores ranging from 11-under to 19-under.
PAST WINNERS
| Golfer | Year | Winning Score | DraftKings Points |
| Rory McIlroy | 2018 | -18 | 123 |
| Marc Leishman | 2017 | -11 | 106.5 |
| Jason Day | 2016 | -17 | 123.5 |
| Matt Every | 2015 | -19 | 122.5 |
| Matt Every | 2014 | -13 | 110.5 |
OFF THE TEE
Since 2010, there have been 46 golfers that have finished in the Top 5 of DK Scoring here. Of that group, 20 (43 percent) have finished in the top 20 of driving distance and 24 (52 percent) hit that ranking in accuracy off the tee. In general, it’s a pretty even split with both distance and accuracy off the tee having about 0.08 R-Squared to DK scoring. On the one hand, golfers who finished in the top 20 of distance have averaged 70.36 DK points. On the other hand, golfers who finished that high in accuracy have averaged 66.94 DK points. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee is more highly correlated with DK scoring (0.13 R-Squared) and the golfers that have finished in the Top 20 in that category have averaged 71.41 DK points.
| SG:OTT Rank (2019) | Golfer (Salary) |
| 1 | Rory McIlroy ($11,400) |
| 2 | Bubba Watson ($8,000) |
| 3 | Kevin Streelman ($6,800) |
| 4 | Keith Mitchell ($7,500) |
| 5 | Luke List ($7,900) |
| 6 | Bryson DeChambeau ($9,700) |
| 7 | Adam Hadwin ($7,700) |
| 8 | Brooks Koepka ($10,200) |
| 9 | Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300) |
| 10 | Jason Kokrak ($8,300) |
ON APPROACH
Surprise, surprise … hitting greens in regulation is important! If we take a look at that same group of 46 golfers that finished their week inside the top five of DK scoring we can see just how important the approach game is at Bay Hill. Just over 50 percent of that group finished in the top 20 of GIR and 30 (65 percent) of those golfers hit that threshold in SG: Approach. Golfers who finished in the top 20 of GIR averaged a SOFA (Scoring Over Field Average) of 23.1 DK points. Those who finished in the top 20 of SG: APP averaged a SOFA of 26 DK points.
| SG: APP Rank (2019) | Golfer (Salary) |
| 1 | Tiger Woods ($11,100) |
| 2 | Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300) |
| 3 | Keegan Bradley ($8,400) |
| 4 | Talor Gooch ($6,800) |
| 5 | Jason Kokrak ($8,300) |
| 6 | Chris Kirk ($6,900) |
| 7 | Zach Johnson ($7,700) |
| 8 | Marc Leishman ($9,500) |
| 9 | Brooks Koepka ($10,200) |
| 10 | Phil Mickelson ($9,200) |
Putting Splits
It’s tempting for people to look at putting because it is so highly correlated to DK scoring. Unfortunately, it’s fair to say that putting performance is one of the least sticky golf metrics in small two-to-four round samples from week to week. Below is a list of the Top 10 Bermuda splits with at least 20 rounds in the last two years.
| SG:Putt Split Rank | Golfer (Salary) |
| 1 | Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($7,100) |
| 2 | JJ Spaun ($6,600) |
| 3 | Keith Mitchell ($7,500) |
| 4 | Pat Perez ($7,000) |
| 5 | Tiger Woods ($11,100) |
| 6 | Ryan Blaum ($6,200) |
| 7 | Nate Lashley ($6,900) |
| 8 | Scott Langley ($6,600) |
| 9 | Sungjae Im ($7,000) |
| 10 | Danny Willett ($7,000) |
Key Stats
- Greens in Regulation
- SG: Off the Tee
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
Course History Since 2010 - Bay Hill Club & Lodge
| Player Name | Salary | Starts | Made Cuts | Missed Cuts | Average DK Points | Lowest DK Point Total | Highest DK Point Total | Best Finish Position | Worst Finish Position | Scoring Over Field Average (SOFA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 11400 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 96.3 | 80 | 123 | 1 | 27 | 45.0 |
| Tiger Woods | 11100 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 97.0 | 67 | 121 | 1 | 24 | 50.7 |
| Justin Rose | 10700 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 72.6 | 23.5 | 104.5 | 2 | 100 | 25.3 |
| Rickie Fowler | 10400 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 67.2 | 23 | 88 | 3 | 100 | 19.4 |
| Brooks Koepka | 10200 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 50.8 | 27 | 66.5 | 26 | 100 | 1.3 |
| Jason Day | 9900 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 75.3 | 50.5 | 123.5 | 1 | 45 | 26.1 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 9700 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 94.8 | 76 | 113.5 | 2 | 27 | 42.2 |
| Marc Leishman | 9500 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 65.6 | 30 | 106.5 | 1 | 100 | 17.5 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 9300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 70.4 | 53.5 | 88.5 | 6 | 49 | 19.2 |
| Phil Mickelson | 9200 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 55.5 | 27.5 | 66.5 | 24 | 100 | 10.7 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 9100 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 72.5 | 68 | 77 | 10 | 26 | 23.6 |
| Francesco Moli-ri | 9000 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 76.3 | 66 | 83.5 | 5 | 34 | 26.5 |
| Patrick Reed | 8900 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 61.2 | 32 | 94 | 7 | 100 | 12.6 |
| Billy Horschel | 8800 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 64.7 | 48.5 | 77 | 13 | 75 | 14.9 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 8700 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 70.3 | 51 | 89.5 | 4 | 69 | 21.4 |
| Charles Howell | 8600 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 63.3 | 46.5 | 82.5 | 14 | 56 | 15.2 |
| Daniel Berger | 8500 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 88.5 | 88.5 | 88.5 | 13 | 13 | 34.7 |
| Keegan Bradley | 8400 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 66.4 | 15 | 100 | 2 | 100 | 17.5 |
| Jason Kokrak | 8300 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 57.9 | 13.5 | 94 | 4 | 100 | 8.2 |
| Lucas Glover | 8200 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 56.8 | 20 | 80.5 | 7 | 100 | 7.0 |
| Henrik Stenson | 8100 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 75.4 | 25 | 109.5 | 2 | 100 | 27.3 |
| Bubba Watson | 8000 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 53.6 | 3.5 | 84 | 4 | 100 | 7.1 |
| Ian Poulter | 8000 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 68.9 | 54.5 | 85 | 3 | 46 | 20.5 |
| Luke List | 7900 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 76.5 | 67.5 | 85.5 | 7 | 17 | 27.6 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 7900 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 59.3 | 20.5 | 94 | 9 | 100 | 8.8 |
| J.B. Holmes | 7800 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 61.2 | 33 | 81 | 10 | 100 | 13.1 |
| Si Woo Kim | 7800 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 44.7 | 23 | 57.5 | 49 | 100 | -5.7 |
| Zach Johnson | 7700 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 63.3 | 29 | 92 | 5 | 100 | 15.2 |
| Adam Hadwin | 7700 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 74.8 | 64.5 | 85 | 6 | 36 | 25.1 |
| Cameron Champ | 7600 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Michael Thompson | 7600 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 56.0 | 56 | 56 | 36 | 36 | 11.3 |
| Keith Mitchell | 7500 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Byeong-Hun An | 7500 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 57.1 | 22.5 | 76.5 | 14 | 100 | 7.9 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 7500 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Matt Every | 7400 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 61.3 | 22 | 122.5 | 1 | 100 | 13.2 |
| Matt Wallace | 7400 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Hao Tong Li | 7400 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Charl Schwartzel | 7400 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 48.0 | 26 | 62 | 45 | 100 | 1.2 |
| Abraham Ancer | 7300 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Beau Hossler | 7300 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.0 | 50 | 50 | 66 | 66 | -1.8 |
| Scott Piercy | 7300 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20.0 | 12 | 25.5 | 100 | 100 | -27.1 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 7300 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 45.5 | 17.5 | 68.5 | 13 | 100 | -4.5 |
| Ryan Moore | 7300 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 58.6 | 19 | 90 | 4 | 100 | 11.2 |
| Scott Stallings | 7200 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 25.9 | 16 | 50 | 48 | 100 | -22.9 |
| Chesson Hadley | 7200 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 60.8 | 53 | 65.5 | 26 | 67 | 9.4 |
| Martin Kaymer | 7200 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 60.5 | 60.5 | 60.5 | 23 | 23 | 14.5 |
| Kevin - | 7200 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 70.6 | 24 | 92 | 2 | 100 | 22.8 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 7200 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 50.1 | 16.5 | 85.5 | 8 | 100 | 2.0 |
| Kevin Kisner | 7200 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 52.3 | 22.5 | 94.5 | 2 | 100 | 1.0 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 7100 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| J.T. Poston | 7100 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Shane Lowry | 7100 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 27.5 | 26 | 29 | 100 | 100 | -25.3 |
| Kyle Stanley | 7100 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 58.6 | 16 | 75.5 | 12 | 100 | 12.0 |
| Steve Stricker | 7100 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 49.0 | 49 | 49 | 52 | 52 | 3.2 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 7100 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 75.8 | 29.5 | 104.5 | 6 | 100 | 22.9 |
| Charley Hoffman | 7000 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 64.5 | 24 | 97.5 | 2 | 100 | 17.7 |
| Jho-ttan Vegas | 7000 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 43.4 | 14 | 59 | 43 | 100 | -4.3 |
| Danny Willett | 7000 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 43.5 | 15.5 | 71.5 | 29 | 100 | -9.3 |
| Aaron Wise | 7000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 75.0 | 75 | 75 | 41 | 41 | 23.3 |
| Pat Perez | 7000 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 47.4 | 24 | 66.5 | 17 | 100 | 0.6 |
| Sungjae Im | 7000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Brian Gay | 7000 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 37.9 | 17 | 66 | 22 | 100 | -8.7 |
| Harold Varner | 6900 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 39.5 | 24.5 | 54.5 | 34 | 100 | -10.2 |
| -te Lashley | 6900 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Patrick Rodgers | 6900 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 56.2 | 10.5 | 82.5 | 7 | 100 | 5.8 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 6900 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Graeme McDowell | 6900 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 50.4 | 15.5 | 95 | 2 | 100 | 2.3 |
| Chris Kirk | 6900 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 49.5 | 15.5 | 80.5 | 12 | 100 | 0.6 |
| Harris English | 6900 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 48.9 | 11 | 85.5 | 14 | 100 | -0.1 |
| Talor Gooch | 6800 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 76.0 | 76 | 76 | 26 | 26 | 24.3 |
| Kevin Streelman | 6800 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 55.9 | 24 | 83.5 | 7 | 100 | 7.4 |
| Bill Haas | 6800 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 54.0 | 16.5 | 82.5 | 8 | 100 | 9.2 |
| Eddie Pepperell | 6800 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Roger Sloan | 6800 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Cheng-Tsung Pan | 6800 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 57.0 | 44.5 | 69.5 | 41 | 56 | 8.1 |
| Martin Laird | 6700 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 64.0 | 41 | 107 | 1 | 76 | 15.9 |
| Adam Schenk | 6700 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Sung Kang | 6700 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 39.3 | 19 | 59.5 | 58 | 100 | -13.3 |
| Sam Ryder | 6700 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Jason Dufner | 6700 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 48.8 | 22.5 | 72 | 15 | 100 | 4.0 |
| Sam Horsfield | 6700 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 72.0 | 72 | 72 | 14 | 14 | 20.3 |
| Braden Thornberry | 6600 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Danny Lee | 6600 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 47.6 | 26 | 77 | 17 | 100 | -2.3 |
| J.J. Spaun | 6600 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 55.0 | 55 | 55 | 49 | 49 | 9.0 |
| Ernie Els | 6600 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 59.3 | 17 | 112 | 1 | 100 | 11.3 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 6600 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 46.6 | 22.5 | 71.5 | 12 | 100 | -0.8 |
| Scott Langley | 6600 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23.0 | 23 | 23 | 100 | 100 | -21.9 |
| Hudson Swafford | 6500 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 56.7 | 20.5 | 82.5 | 10 | 100 | 6.0 |
| Sam Saunders | 6500 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 43.1 | 18 | 73.5 | 29 | 100 | -5.4 |
| Dominic Bozzelli | 6500 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Jimmy Walker | 6500 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 53.3 | 21 | 76.5 | 8 | 100 | 7.0 |
| Vaughn Taylor | 6500 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 48.3 | 23.5 | 69.5 | 21 | 100 | 1.6 |
| Austin Cook | 6500 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 62.5 | 62.5 | 62.5 | 36 | 36 | 10.8 |
| Brendan Steele | 6400 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 50.3 | 11.5 | 78.5 | 20 | 100 | 2.0 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 6400 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 77.0 | 77 | 77 | 21 | 21 | 23.2 |
| Martin Trainer | 6400 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Andrew Landry | 6400 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Hunter Mahan | 6400 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 53.6 | 26.5 | 65.5 | 21 | 100 | 5.2 |
| Brian Harman | 6400 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 50.7 | 19.5 | 78 | 13 | 100 | 1.7 |
| Corey Conners | 6300 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Sam Burns | 6300 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 67.0 | 67 | 67 | 49 | 49 | 15.3 |
| Vijay Singh | 6300 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 42.6 | 18.5 | 72 | 20 | 100 | -5.8 |
| Justin Suh | 6300 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Davis Love | 6300 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 60.6 | 39 | 89.5 | 14 | 100 | 10.9 |
| Joel Dahmen | 6300 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Ollie Schniederjans | 6200 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 58.3 | 55.5 | 61 | 34 | 41 | 9.4 |
| Stewart Cink | 6200 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 47.7 | 19 | 70 | 12 | 100 | -0.4 |
| Michael Kim | 6200 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 68.0 | 68 | 68 | 17 | 17 | 22.0 |
| Anirban Lahiri | 6200 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 32.0 | 17.5 | 46.5 | 75 | 100 | -16.9 |
| Ryan Armour | 6200 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 43.0 | 43 | 43 | 77 | 77 | -8.8 |
| Ryan Blaum | 6200 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Tim Herron | 6100 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33.7 | 16.5 | 69.5 | 11 | 100 | -14.4 |
| Richy Werenski | 6100 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Ted Potter | 6100 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 15 | 100 | 100 | -32.6 |
| Robert Gamez | 6100 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 14.6 | 6 | 24.5 | 100 | 100 | -33.5 |
| D.A. Points | 6100 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 39.1 | 15.5 | 81.5 | 17 | 100 | -8.6 |
| Brice Garnett | 6100 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 100 | 100 | -32.4 |
| Viktor Hovland | 6000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Robert Streb | 6000 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 24.3 | 21.5 | 27.5 | 100 | 100 | -26.7 |
| Anders Albertson | 6000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Rod Perry | 6000 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18.8 | 10 | 27 | 76 | 100 | -29.1 |
| Adam Long | 6000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Bronson Burgoon | 6000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
