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Curtis Samuel’s ADP Is Taking Off, But He’s Still a Bargain: 3 Dynasty Risers to Watch

Our man Mike Beers has been a busy boy adding value to your RotoViz subscription all offseason. His latest enhancement to our suite of tools is the ability to visualize trending players via the Risers/Fallers tab in the Dynasty ADP tool.

Let’s take a dive into three players on the rise over the past 30 days in MFL and FFPC leagues.

Curtis Samuel

Samuel’s stock is on the rise in FFPC dynasty leagues where he’s gone from a mid-130s ADP in late May to a top-100 pick in recent weeks.

We’re like proud parents here at RotoViz as we watch Samuel come into his own. Our analysts were enamored with his versatility coming out of college in 2017, as he made the made a run in our Sweet 16 tournament as both a running back and a wide receiver.

Samuel had the best Phenom Index in the class as a WR, ahead of the prodigious JuJu Smith-Schuster.

His sophomore season got off to a slow start after he was diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat ahead of Week 1. He missed a month of action, and after taking three games to get up to speed became a major part of the offense, racking up two games with double-digit targets and pacing for back-end WR2 numbers in PPR leagues.

Samuel is still just 22-years old (turning 23 in August), leaving room for improvement. What could the future bring? Is he worth a top-100 pick in dynasty leagues? I believe so. Despite playing in a low-volume offense, his per-game numbers through two years put him on par with some NFL studs, according to the RotoViz Screener similarity search.

With Devin Funchess and his 78 targets and 1,049 air yards gone, Samuel stands alone os the WR2 in this offense behind D.J. Moore.

I love the upside and think he’s still a bargain at his current price.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

The Packers’ presumed No. 2 on the pecking order is getting a ton of heat with a 27-pick rise in ADP in FFPC leagues.

I’ll be honest — I have no idea what to make of the Packers sophomore WR, whose arrows are pointing all over the place.

The Bad

  • Poor draft equity (fifth round in 2018)
  • Old — played as a 23-year old rookie, giving him about a 13% chance at NFL success
  • Never had more than 900 receiving yards in his five college years
  • Poor rookie comps
  • Despite staying relatively healthy and playing 15 games with Aaron Rodgers,Valdes-Scantling averaged less than 40 yards per game and was just WR7 among rookies

The Good

Ultimately, Valdes-Scantling looks like a Rodgers-powered dart throw to me. I’m turned off by his age, draft capital and lack of production.

That said, he’s going behind guys like DaeSean Hamilton and even Packers backup TE Jace Sternberger in FFPC dynasty startups, and that’s too low.

Matt LaCosse

LaCosse has gone from middle free agent to defacto No. 1 TE on one of the league’s best offenses, resulting in a 75.5-spot rise in ADP over the last month in MFL dynasty leagues.

Should you be buying? The production hasn’t been there since he was drafted in 2015, but the former UDFA finally flashed some signs of life in Denver last year after failing to show anything as a Giant.

With poor efficiency and low volume, there’s not much by the numbers. But it’s not like the other TEs on the roster have been flexing in the NFL  — Stephen Anderson has 435 yards in 28 games while Ryan Izzo and Andrew Beck are rookies.

There are reasons for optimism, especially at price.

  • He’s in line to start in Week 1 after the Patriots released Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Ben Watson was handed a four-game PED suspension, and a trade for Michael Roberts fell through.
  • LaCosse is no Gronk, but at 6 feet 6 inches and 250 pounds, he’s built like him.
  • While he didn’t test well at the combine, Patriots beat writers did note how smooth LaCosse looked as a receiver in recent OTAs.

The smart bet is on LaCosse failing to make a fantasy impact in 2019, but he certainly wouldn’t be the first guy to go from scrub to star with the Patriots.

Like it or not, he needs to be rostered in all formats.

Image Credit: Steven King/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Curtis Samuel.

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