Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft.
Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel, and he flirted with WR4 numbers.
Most of these guys in this deep sleeper series will be misses, but the goal is to look for the silver lining and find a handful of players that will emerge from their sleeper slumber in 2019.
Here’s a look at the rest of our deep sleeper series so far:
Travis Homer, RB
What happens in the event of an injury to one of Chris Carson or Rashaad Penny? With only JD McKissic and the oft-injured CJ Prosise to battle on the depth chart, we’d be likely to see some run from sixth-round running back, Travis Homer.
The 5-foot-10-inch, 201-pounder out of Miami has only been taken in four of 1,933 Fanball 10 drafts since the start of June.
Homer was not only on early declare, a factor which bodes well for his NFL future, but at a final age of 20.4 years, he’s also the youngest RB in this year’s class. That matters because RBs who play in the league at a rookie age of 21 go on to finish as an RB2 or better at nearly twice the rate of 22-year olds.
We don’t get the same glaring checkmarks in the production department, but with almost a thousand yards in each of his final two seasons to go with 37 receptions, his numbers are not a red flag either.
|Year||G||Att||Yds||Avg||TD||Rec||Rec Yds||Rec Avg||Rec TD|
Homer’s chances of sticking with the Seahawks 53-man roster are also improved by his ability on special teams.
Pete Carroll on @710ESPNSeattle mentioned, "Right off the bat, Travis Homer looks like a special teams guy" — those RB3/4 spots behind Carson/Penny likely going to make the team because of ST— Danny Kelly (@DannyBKelly) July 29, 2019
Athletically, Homer didn’t display blazing speed at the combine, but he did crush the explosiveness drills, leading to physical comps that include Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones.
When we throw production and draft position into the equation, the Box Score Scout spits out a somewhat uninspiring comps list that still warrants some optimism.
Homer has all sorts of positive arrows indicating the opportunity and ability to make an impact in year one, and we haven’t even touched on the fact that Seattle is the run-happiest team in the league.
It sounds the rookie has a line on the No. 3 job in Seattle, and with a the inflated injury rated at the position, he’s in a good spot to see some action at some point in the season.
David Moore, WR
Honorable mention here to John Urusa, a rookie WR I wrote up as a deep sleeper for the ‘Hawks back in June. He’s currently in the conversation to take some of the slot snaps vacated by Doug Baldwin, although the odds of doing so as a rookie are looking increasingly longer.
Assuming the Seahawks are planning on gifting second-round draft pick DK Metcalf the No. 2 job behind Tyler Lockett, it’s looking like a battle between Brown and David Moore for No. 3 duties. Brown has been getting some camp hype, but this will be his seventh year in the league and his best season was 477 yards on 31 receptions in 2017.
We have enough evidence by now to conclude that such a line is likely his ceiling. Meanwhile, on a per-game basis, Moore did more as a rookie last year than Brown has done in the entirety of his career — more volume, more efficiency, and more points.
By now, it’s well established that we should be targetting second-year WRs, as it’s the only time we see a bump in production over the previous season.
Brown is obviously well past that point, but Moore’s age curve is heading in the right direction. He may not have made Shawn Siegele’s list of second-year WRs to target, but it’s still quite reasonable to expect a jump on his 101 fantasy points in PPR leagues as a rookie.
Not only do I think Moore can beat out Brown for the No. 3 gig, I also think he’s shown enough to push Metcalf for snaps, a player who never topped 650 receiving yards in college.
People are sleeping on Moore, and based on what we know about this trio, we shouldn’t be surprised to see him finish as the second-most targeted player in this offense behind Lockett.