These 5 WRs Excel at Scoring Touchdowns and Nothing Will Slow Them Down
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Image Credit: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Deshaun Watson.

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and thus score fantasy football points — may be drastically skewed if their actual touchdowns don’t align with their expected number.

So far in this four-part touchdown regression article series, we discussed the 1. WRS primed to score more touchdowns in 2019, which includes a WR whose ADP has climbed nearly 20 spots since that article was published three weeks ago, 2. Fool’s Gold WRS due for positive TD regression who won’t actually score more, and 3. WRS that will experience negative TD regression, one of whom is a generational talent whose production may take a nose dive.

On 4th down, we’ll take a look at the WRS who are due for negative touchdown regression in 2019, but will actually continue to score a lot of touchdowns. These are WRS that may look like fades at the surface due to regression, but whose situations come together in a way that will allow them to sustain the production.

Wide Receivers Who Scored More Touchdowns Compared to Expectation in 2018

The following are WRs who saw 50-plus targets in 2018 and over-performed their predicted touchdown total by at least 1.0 touchdowns

Rank PLAYER reTRGS reYDS reTDS Expected reTDS Difference
1 Antonio Brown 169 1297 15 7.322 -7.678
2 John Ross 58 210 7 1.045 -5.955
3 Mike Williams 66 664 10 4.127 -5.873
4 Calvin Ridley 92 821 10 4.914 -5.086
5 Davante Adams 169 1386 13 7.945 -5.055
6 Anthony Miller 54 423 7 2.584 -4.416
7 Zay Jones 102 652 8 3.611 -4.389
8 Tyler Lockett 71 965 10 6.174 -3.826
9 Kenny Stills 64 553 7 3.374 -3.626
10 Stefon Diggs 148 1021 9 5.642 -3.358
11 Tyreek Hill 137 1479 12 8.98 -3.02
12 Chris Conley 52 334 5 1.985 -3.015
13 Trey Burton 77 569 6 3.33 -2.67
14 Josh Reynolds 53 402 5 2.449 -2.551
15 Cooper Kupp 56 566 6 3.561 -2.439
16 David Moore 52 445 5 2.762 -2.238
17 Curtis Samuel 65 494 5 2.949 -2.051
18 Chris Godwin 95 842 7 5.025 -1.975
19 Larry Fitzgerald 112 734 6 4.065 -1.935
20 Marvin Jones 62 508 5 3.083 -1.917
21 A.J. Green 77 694 6 4.205 -1.795
22 DeAndre Hopkins 163 1572 11 9.319 -1.681
23 Antonio Callaway 81 586 5 3.401 -1.599
24 Robby Anderson 93 752 6 4.419 -1.581
25 Doug Baldwin 73 618 5 3.721 -1.279
26 Kendrick Bourne 66 487 4 2.888 -1.112
27 Julian Edelman 108 850 6 4.925 -1.075
28 Demaryius Thomas 89 677 5 3.942 -1.058

WRS Who Will Continue to Beat Expectations

5. Chris Godwin

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Michael Dubner

RotoViz Featured Writer. Emphasis on NFL DFS and Best Ball.
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