These 5 WRs Excel at Scoring Touchdowns and Nothing Will Slow Them Down
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Image Credit: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Deshaun Watson.

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and thus score fantasy football points — may be drastically skewed if their actual touchdowns don’t align with their expected number.

So far in this four-part touchdown regression article series, we discussed the 1. WRS primed to score more touchdowns in 2019, which includes a WR whose ADP has climbed nearly 20 spots since that article was published three weeks ago, 2. Fool’s Gold WRS due for positive TD regression who won’t actually score more, and 3. WRS that will experience negative TD regression, one of whom is a generational talent whose production may take a nose dive.

On 4th down, we’ll take a look at the WRS who are due for negative touchdown regression in 2019, but will actually continue to score a lot of touchdowns. These are WRS that may look like fades at the surface due to regression, but whose situations come together in a way that will allow them to sustain the production.

Wide Receivers Who Scored More Touchdowns Compared to Expectation in 2018

The following are WRs who saw 50-plus targets in 2018 and over-performed their predicted touchdown total by at least 1.0 touchdowns

RankPLAYERreTRGSreYDSreTDSExpected reTDSDifference
1Antonio Brown1691297157.322-7.678
2John Ross5821071.045-5.955
3Mike Williams66664104.127-5.873
4Calvin Ridley92821104.914-5.086
5Davante Adams1691386137.945-5.055
6Anthony Miller5442372.584-4.416
7Zay Jones10265283.611-4.389
8Tyler Lockett71965106.174-3.826
9Kenny Stills6455373.374-3.626
10Stefon Diggs148102195.642-3.358
11Tyreek Hill1371479128.98-3.02
12Chris Conley5233451.985-3.015
13Trey Burton7756963.33-2.67
14Josh Reynolds5340252.449-2.551
15Cooper Kupp5656663.561-2.439
16David Moore5244552.762-2.238
17Curtis Samuel6549452.949-2.051
18Chris Godwin9584275.025-1.975
19Larry Fitzgerald11273464.065-1.935
20Marvin Jones6250853.083-1.917
21A.J. Green7769464.205-1.795
22DeAndre Hopkins1631572119.319-1.681
23Antonio Callaway8158653.401-1.599
24Robby Anderson9375264.419-1.581
25Doug Baldwin7361853.721-1.279
26Kendrick Bourne6648742.888-1.112
27Julian Edelman10885064.925-1.075
28Demaryius Thomas8967753.942-1.058

WRS Who Will Continue to Beat Expectations

5. Chris Godwin

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RotoViz Featured Writer. Emphasis on NFL DFS and Best Ball.

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