I’ve had a hard time getting much else accomplished since RotoViz released its latest tool, the Range of Outcomes App, this week.
On Monday I looked at one of the underrated names that popped out as belonging in the elite-WR category in Dave Caban’s model. And I want to take a quick look at another WR who appears to belong in the same category according to the historical data, only he’s available at an even steeper discount.
My Kupp Runneth Over
Cooper Kupp has been getting virtually no heat this offseason. He missed the second half of last season with an ACL injury, so perhaps it’s slipped our hive mind that when he was healthy, Kupp was the leading WR on the league’s second-highest scoring team.
Kupp’s end-zone prowess and subsequent edge in efficiency led to 17.7 points per game when he was healthy last year — the best rate on the Rams and a pace that would have made him the WR9 last year, just behind JuJu Smith-Schuster.
I get wanting to knock him down a few pegs as he returns from surgery, but the 24th WR off the board with an overall ADP of 52? The prices on all three Rams WRs seem slightly depressed, but none more so than Kupp.
He hasn’t appeared in any preseason games yet, but he avoided the PUP, is taking hits in practice, and is on track to start Week 1.
“I think physically you don’t see any effects of the knee injury,” coach Sean McVay said. “I think it’s more just getting your feet underneath you and playing the game.”
If that’s the case, then we’re all probably too low on Kupp.
By firing up the Range of Outcomes App, we get a low, medium, and high projection for Kupp based on players of similar size and age who’ve had similar seasons. Among all WRs, Kupp has:
- The 13th-best low projection
- 17th-best median projection
- 16th-best high projection
|Odell Beckham Jr.||9||5||72||0.4||-3||15.3||12.5||14.8||17.4|
Not only does he have a safe floor at 12.1 PPG in PPR leagues, but his high and median outcomes are also both in the range of a high-end WR2.
The app also allows us to look at how the results from his comps group are distributed, with the majority of the outcomes landing in that median range, suggesting that something around 14 PPG from Kupp is a safe bet.
The app allows us to see a breakdown of the comps group, as well as what they did in the following (N+1) season. In this case, that group includes seasons like Reggie Wayne (16.9 PPG in 2004), Eric Decker (16.8 PPG in 2012), and Miles Austin (17.4 PPG in 2009).
Using ranges out of outcomes gives a more complete picture of the risk/reward we’re taking with each pick than does straight projections. Unless you believe Kupp’s knee injury will be a factor, there’s virtually no risk here with the 13th-highest low projection.
There’s also plenty of upside, as demonstrated by his WR9 pace last year as well as his excellent comps group.
With the Rams likely to be among the elite offenses once again in 2018, there’s no reason that Kupp should continue to slide in drafts.