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D.J. Moore’s Breakout Is Really Happening: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 1

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency metric that accounts for both yards and touchdowns in a single number. Add EP (opportunity) and FPOE (efficiency) together, and you get a player’s actual fantasy output.

This weekly article will look at some of the leaders in expected points and try to tease out how fantasy gamers can take advantage of these various volume and efficiency situations. The table below lists relevant EP and FPOE stats for Week 1. I’ll drop in some observations below the table. First, the data:

Week 1 Expected Points

PLAYERReceiving EPReceiving FPOERushing EPRushing FPOETotal PPRTotal EPTotal FPOEreEP ShareruEP SharetotEP Share
Christian McCaffrey15.62.512.312.542.927.91528.0%79.4%39.2%
Jamison Crowder26.5-2.60.9-0.524.327.4-3.143.7%9.8%39.3%
Robert Woods22.1-7.11.6016.623.7-7.134.3%8.3%28.3%
Evan Engram23.25.40028.623.25.434.3%0.0%28.7%
Larry Fitzgerald22.82.50025.322.82.526.9%0.0%23.8%
DeAndre Hopkins22.28.90031.122.28.947.6%0.0%39.8%
Chris Carson9.85.711.2-0.626.1215.134.4%81.2%49.6%
Allen Robinson20.4-3.20017.220.4-3.226.5%0.0%23.8%
Damien Williams10.7-0.89.6-118.520.3-1.817.7%57.1%26.3%
David Johnson10.96.69.3-1.125.720.25.512.9%84.5%21.1%
Michael Thomas19.92.40022.319.92.436.1%0.0%30.7%
Christian Kirk18.5-11.31.208.419.7-11.321.8%10.9%20.6%
Keenan Allen19.66.70026.319.66.735.4%0.0%29.7%
Sammy Watkins19.527.30046.819.527.332.2%0.0%25.2%
Le'Veon Bell10.94.38.3-2.321.219.2218.0%90.2%27.5%
John Ross19.115.70034.819.115.724.9%0.0%22.9%
Julian Edelman17.5-3.21.4-0.616.718.9-3.830.9%9.2%26.3%
Julio Jones18.8-3.70015.118.8-3.724.6%0.0%22.0%
Austin Ekeler12.115.56.65.239.418.720.721.8%62.3%28.3%
Danny Amendola18.74.70023.418.74.729.8%0.0%24.5%
Donte Moncrief18.5-14.8003.718.5-14.824.6%0.0%22.4%
Tyler Boyd16.9-2.90.4-0.114.317.3-322.1%6.0%20.8%
Alvin Kamara10.14.16.7323.916.87.118.3%69.1%25.9%
Chris Thompson15.2-1.41.5-0.514.816.7-1.923.0%23.8%23.1%
Odell Beckham Jr.16.6-2.50014.116.6-2.529.1%0.0%24.3%
D.J. Moore16.6-20014.616.6-229.8%0.0%23.3%
KeeSean Johnson16.6-7009.616.6-719.6%0.0%17.3%
George Kittle16.5-3.10013.416.5-3.139.4%0.0%29.2%
Travis Kelce16.5-4.70011.816.5-4.727.3%0.0%21.3%
Josh Jacobs1.52.314.65.924.316.18.23.7%89.6%28.3%
Saquon Barkley7.4-1.58.63.417.9161.910.9%65.2%19.8%
Cooper Kupp15.9-4.30011.615.9-4.324.7%0.0%19.0%
Dalvin Cook2.80.113.1102615.910.121.5%69.3%49.8%
Derrick Henry3.111.412.71.728.915.813.17.6%82.5%28.2%
Rex Burkhead11.7-2.640.413.515.7-2.220.6%26.1%21.8%
Leonard Fournette8.7-1.96.9-0.313.415.6-2.216.6%88.5%25.9%
T.Y. Hilton15.313.40028.715.313.433.6%0.0%25.4%
Kenny Golladay15.1-0.90014.215.1-0.924.0%0.0%19.8%
Alshon Jeffery11.14.83.82.522.114.97.314.4%43.7%17.4%
John Brown14.810.50025.314.810.529.7%0.0%25.5%
DeSean Jackson14.820.60035.414.820.629.7%0.0%22.6%
T.J. Hockenson14.810.30025.114.810.323.6%0.0%19.4%
Phillip Lindsay9.5-3.25.1-0.810.614.6-416.9%45.5%21.6%
Gus Edwards0014.6-95.614.6-90.0%47.9%18.4%
Amari Cooper148.60022.6148.627.6%0.0%22.2%
Cole Beasley13.9-4.900913.9-4.927.9%0.0%23.9%
Tarik Cohen13.7-0.80012.913.7-0.817.8%0.0%16.0%
Austin Hooper13.63.10016.713.63.117.8%0.0%15.9%
Davante Adams13.5-5.9007.613.5-5.930.6%0.0%25.5%
Courtland Sutton13.35.7001913.35.723.6%0.0%19.7%
Mark Andrews13.211.60024.813.211.626.9%0.0%16.6%
Greg Olsen13.1-5.5007.613.1-5.523.5%0.0%18.4%
Emmanuel Sanders136.60019.6136.623.1%0.0%19.3%
Mark Ingram0012.99.822.712.99.80.0%42.3%16.2%
Nick Chubb5.3-1.37.6-0.211.412.9-1.59.3%67.9%18.9%
Chris Godwin12.71.60014.312.71.624.3%0.0%20.1%
Duke Johnson7.9-0.64.41.31312.30.717.0%47.8%22.0%
Marlon Mack0012.311.123.412.311.10.0%83.1%20.4%
David Njoku121.70013.7121.721.0%0.0%17.6%
Sterling Shepard11.9-1.70010.211.9-1.717.6%0.0%14.7%
Zach Ertz11.8-1.40010.411.8-1.423.7%0.0%18.0%
James Conner5.62.86.2-4.110.511.8-1.37.4%84.9%14.3%
Trey Quinn11.71.60013.311.71.617.7%0.0%16.2%
Juju Smith-Schuster11.72.10013.811.72.115.6%0.0%14.2%
Tyrell Williams11.610.90022.511.610.928.6%0.0%20.4%
Delanie Walker11.5110022.511.51128.3%0.0%20.5%
Darren Waller11.52.5001411.52.528.4%0.0%20.2%
Mike Davis9.3-1.62.2-0.39.611.5-1.912.1%25.3%13.4%
Miles Sanders3-1.88.3-5.83.711.3-7.66.0%52.5%17.2%
Damiere Byrd11.3-3.1008.211.3-3.113.3%0.0%11.8%
James White9.21.42.10.513.211.31.916.2%13.7%15.7%
Calvin Ridley11.15.30016.411.15.314.5%0.0%13.0%
Robby Anderson11-5.7005.311-5.718.2%0.0%15.8%
Dede Westbrook10.53.50.4-0.214.210.93.320.0%5.1%18.1%
Noah Fant10.1-5.20.8-1.34.410.9-6.517.9%7.1%16.1%
Terry McLaurin10.912.60023.510.912.616.5%0.0%15.1%
Brandin Cooks10.8-4.9005.910.8-4.916.8%0.0%12.9%
DeVante Parker10.6-0.10010.510.6-0.121.5%0.0%19.4%
Ted Ginn10.66.50017.110.66.519.2%0.0%16.4%
Chris Conley10.511.20021.710.511.220.0%0.0%17.4%
Cody Latimer10.5-0.10010.410.5-0.115.5%0.0%13.0%
Devin Singletary8.5-0.71.95.114.810.44.417.0%23.2%17.9%
Tyler Higbee10.21.8001210.21.815.8%0.0%12.2%
Michael Gallup10.112.70022.810.112.719.9%0.0%16.0%
Vernon Davis10.15.80015.910.15.815.3%0.0%14.0%
Kerryon Johnson2.80.57.3-2.48.210.1-1.94.5%53.7%13.2%
James Washington9.9-2.8007.19.9-2.813.2%0.0%12.0%
Malcolm Brown009.97.417.39.97.40.0%51.6%11.8%
D.K. Metcalf9.83.10012.99.83.134.4%0.0%23.2%
Jimmy Graham9.72.300129.72.322.0%0.0%18.3%
Jarvis Landry9.21.50.50.511.79.7216.1%4.5%14.2%
Paul Richardson9.7-2.1007.69.7-2.114.7%0.0%13.4%
Devonta Freeman6.2-23.4-1.56.19.6-3.58.1%37.4%11.2%
Mohamed Sanu9.41.30010.79.41.312.3%0.0%11.0%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling9.20009.29.2020.9%0.0%17.4%
Preston Williams9.22.20011.49.22.218.7%0.0%16.9%
Peyton Barber5.4-2.23.8-0.56.59.2-2.710.3%34.9%14.6%
Ezekiel Elliott2.6-0.66.64.713.39.24.15.1%52.8%14.6%
Ryan Switzer9.2-0.3008.99.2-0.312.2%0.0%11.2%
Giovani Bernard6.202.9-0.88.39.1-0.88.1%43.3%10.9%
Matt Breida1.4-1.47.6-3.93.79-5.33.3%51.7%15.9%
DaeSean Hamilton9-6.5002.59-6.516.0%0.0%13.3%
Marquise Brown921.70030.7921.718.4%0.0%11.3%
C.J. Uzomah8.81.80010.68.81.811.5%0.0%10.6%
Devin Funchess8.7-2.5006.28.7-2.519.1%0.0%14.4%
Derrius Guice3.91.14.8-36.88.7-1.95.9%76.2%12.0%
Ronald Jones1.51.37.10.410.38.61.72.9%65.1%13.6%
Mike Gesicki8.4-3.3005.18.4-3.317.0%0.0%15.4%
Darren Sproles3.90.74.50.29.38.40.97.8%28.5%12.8%
Hayden Hurst8.4-1.3007.18.4-1.317.1%0.0%10.6%
Dion Lewis6.9-3.31.4-0.74.38.3-417.0%9.1%14.8%
Jason Witten8.22.30010.58.22.316.2%0.0%13.0%
James O'Shaughnessy8.1-0.9007.28.1-0.915.5%0.0%13.5%
Aaron Jones1.4-0.46.6-2.74.98-3.13.2%75.0%15.1%
Tyler Eifert7.9-0.2007.77.9-0.210.3%0.0%9.5%
Randall Cobb7.89.10016.97.89.115.4%0.0%12.3%
Diontae Johnson7.8-2.3005.57.8-2.310.4%0.0%9.5%
Taylor Gabriel7.7-3.3004.47.7-3.310.0%0.0%9.0%
Todd Gurley1.20.26.43.311.17.63.51.9%33.3%9.1%
Nyheim Hines5.6-1.22-0.75.77.6-1.912.3%13.5%12.6%
Dare Ogunbowale7.6-0.3007.37.6-0.314.6%0.0%12.0%
Nelson Agholor7.6-4.5003.17.6-4.515.3%0.0%11.6%
Justin Jackson4.6-3.232.77.17.6-0.58.3%28.3%11.5%
Mike Evans7.5-2.7004.87.5-2.714.4%0.0%11.9%
Josh Gordon7.58.80016.37.58.813.2%0.0%10.4%
Bennie Fowler7.51.50097.51.511.1%0.0%9.3%
Justin Hardy7.50.6008.17.50.69.8%0.0%8.8%
Breshad Perriman7.4-4.40037.4-4.414.2%0.0%11.7%
Joe Mixon4-1.33.4-2.43.77.4-3.75.2%50.7%8.9%
Damion Willis7.4-1.40067.4-1.49.7%0.0%8.9%
Tevin Coleman4.313-0.77.67.30.310.3%20.4%12.9%
Hunter Henry7.32.700107.32.713.2%0.0%11.1%
Zay Jones7.2-3.4003.87.2-3.414.4%0.0%12.4%
Sony Michel007.2-5.81.47.2-5.80.0%47.1%10.0%
Wayne Gallman4.21.22.94.813.17.166.2%22.0%8.8%
Jordan Howard4-0.931.47.570.58.0%19.0%10.7%
A.J. Brown6.86.200136.86.216.7%0.0%12.1%
O.J. Howard6.80.4007.26.80.413.0%0.0%10.8%
Vance McDonald6.8-0.80066.8-0.89.0%0.0%8.2%
Geoff Swaim6.7-1005.76.7-112.8%0.0%11.1%
LeSean McCoy1.50.75.22.910.36.73.62.5%31.0%8.7%
Royce Freeman1.40.15.30.37.16.70.42.5%47.3%9.9%
D.J. Chark6.6180024.66.61812.6%0.0%11.0%
Albert Wilson6-2.70.5-0.43.46.5-3.112.2%9.6%11.9%
Phillip Dorsett6.5190025.56.51911.5%0.0%9.0%
Marvin Jones6.13.50.40106.53.59.7%2.9%8.5%
Latavius Murray3.3-0.937.312.76.36.46.0%30.9%9.7%
Alex Erickson6.30.5006.86.30.58.2%0.0%7.6%
Ryan Grant6.2-1.6004.66.2-1.615.3%0.0%10.9%
Ryan Griffin6.2-2.20046.2-2.210.2%0.0%8.9%
Kenyan Drake4.2-0.71.9-0.74.76.1-1.48.5%36.5%11.2%
Carlos Hyde1.3-0.14.83.59.56.13.42.8%52.2%10.9%
Ito Smith1.40.54.7-1.656.1-1.11.8%51.6%7.1%
Tony Pollard005.9-3.52.45.9-3.50.0%47.2%9.3%
Raheem Mostert1.4-0.44.1-0.155.5-0.53.3%27.9%9.7%
Curtis Samuel5.50.7006.25.50.79.9%0.0%7.7%
C.J. Anderson005.4-1.93.55.4-1.90.0%39.7%7.1%
Frank Gore005.3-3.325.3-3.30.0%64.6%9.1%
Cordarrelle Patterson5.5-4.2-0.201.15.3-4.27.2%-2.3%6.2%
Willie Snead5.26.90012.15.26.910.6%0.0%6.5%
Hunter Renfrow5.1-1.8003.35.1-1.812.6%0.0%9.0%
Nick Boyle5.10.5005.65.10.510.4%0.0%6.4%
Marcedes Lewis5-1.6003.45-1.611.3%0.0%9.5%
Eric Ebron5-3.2001.85-3.211.0%0.0%8.3%
Jared Cook50.7005.750.79.1%0.0%7.7%
Corey Davis4.9-4.90004.9-4.912.0%0.0%8.7%
Blake Jarwin4.980012.94.989.7%0.0%7.8%
Allen Hurns4.8-1.6003.24.8-1.69.7%0.0%8.8%
Marquise Goodwin4.8-3.1001.74.8-3.111.5%0.0%8.5%
Jamaal Williams2.512.2-2.23.54.7-1.25.7%25.0%8.9%
Jakeem Grant4.7-4000.74.7-49.5%0.0%8.6%
Kendrick Bourne4.7-2.8001.94.7-2.811.2%0.0%8.3%
Dallas Goedert4.7-1.1003.64.7-1.19.4%0.0%7.2%
Travis Benjamin4.7-1.5003.24.7-1.58.5%0.0%7.1%
Tyreek Hill2.70.92-1.54.14.7-0.64.5%11.9%6.1%
Kenny Stills4.68.10012.74.68.19.9%0.0%8.2%
D'Ernest Johnson3.11.21.5-0.15.74.61.15.4%13.4%6.7%
Rashard Higgins4.62006.64.628.1%0.0%6.7%
Quincy Enunwa4.6-2.8001.84.6-2.87.6%0.0%6.6%
Adam Thielen4.48.90013.34.48.933.8%0.0%13.8%
David Montgomery1.52.22.9-1.15.54.41.12.0%33.3%5.1%
Alexander Mattison004.30.64.94.30.60.0%22.8%13.5%
Will Fuller4.34.6008.94.34.69.2%0.0%7.7%
Deebo Samuel4.30.4004.74.30.410.3%0.0%7.6%
Demarcus Robinson4.3-3.30014.3-3.37.1%0.0%5.6%
Jack Doyle4.2-1.20034.2-1.29.2%0.0%7.0%
Dontrell Hilliard2.5-0.11.64.88.84.14.74.4%14.3%6.0%
Mike Williams40.9004.940.97.2%0.0%6.1%
Jaylen Samuels2.8-1.61.1-0.71.63.9-2.33.7%15.1%4.7%
Kalen Ballage1.40.92.4-2.52.23.8-1.62.8%46.2%7.0%
Patrick Ricard3.83.3007.13.83.37.8%0.0%4.8%
Russell Gage2.8-0.51-1.12.23.8-1.63.7%11.0%4.4%
Adam Shaheen3.8-2.2001.63.8-2.24.9%0.0%4.4%
Tre'Quan Smith3.76.90010.63.76.96.7%0.0%5.7%
Tajae Sharpe3.3-3.30003.3-3.38.1%0.0%5.9%
Cameron Brate3.3-0.5002.83.3-0.56.3%0.0%5.2%
Kelvin Harmon3.31.8005.13.31.85.0%0.0%4.6%
Tyler Lockett3.28.20011.43.28.211.2%0.0%7.6%
Jordan Akins3.2-0.5002.73.2-0.56.9%0.0%5.7%
Alex Armah003.22.96.13.22.90.0%20.6%4.5%
Josh Reynolds3.2-3.20003.2-3.25.0%0.0%3.8%
Foster Moreau3.10.90043.10.97.7%0.0%5.5%
Luke Stocker3.1-3.10003.1-3.14.1%0.0%3.6%
Stefon Diggs32.7005.732.723.1%0.0%9.4%
Tommy Sweeney32.5005.532.56.0%0.0%5.2%
Deon Cain32.5005.532.56.6%0.0%5.0%
Justice Hill003-0.32.73-0.30.0%9.8%3.8%
Will Dissly2.9-0.7002.22.9-0.710.2%0.0%6.9%
J.D. McKissic2.91.5004.42.91.54.6%0.0%3.8%
Miles Boykin2.94.6007.52.94.65.9%0.0%3.6%
Rhett Ellison2.9-1.1001.82.9-1.14.3%0.0%3.6%
Johnny Holton2.9-2.90002.9-2.93.9%0.0%3.5%
Nick Vannett2.80.8003.62.80.89.8%0.0%6.6%
Richie James2.88.10010.92.88.16.7%0.0%4.9%
Damion Ratley2.80.9003.72.80.94.9%0.0%4.1%
Ryan Izzo2.8-1.5001.32.8-1.54.9%0.0%3.9%
Rashaad Penny002.6-0.81.82.6-0.80.0%18.8%6.1%
Jonnu Smith1.30.41.3-0.32.72.60.13.2%8.4%4.6%
Patrick DiMarco2.60.3002.92.60.33.4%0.0%3.0%
Dawson Knox2.5-1.4001.12.5-1.45.0%0.0%4.3%
Josh Hill2.5-1.7000.82.5-1.74.5%0.0%3.9%
Javon Wims2.5-2.50002.5-2.53.3%0.0%2.9%
Parris Campbell1.7-0.60.50.21.82.2-0.43.7%3.4%3.6%
Chase Edmonds1.6-1.60.500.52.1-1.61.9%4.5%2.2%
Mo Alie-Cox2-0.7001.32-0.74.4%0.0%3.3%
Chris Hogan1.9-1.90001.9-1.93.4%0.0%2.7%
Ryquell Armstead1.3-1.30.50.20.71.8-1.12.5%6.4%3.0%
Dontrelle Inman1.8-0.3001.51.8-0.33.2%0.0%2.7%
Dante Pettis1.70001.71.704.1%0.0%3.0%
Tavon Austin1.70.1001.81.70.13.4%0.0%2.7%
Elijhaa Penny001.7-1.40.31.7-1.40.0%12.9%2.1%
DeAndre Carter1.6-0.7000.91.6-0.73.4%0.0%2.9%
Jarius Wright1.60.8002.41.60.82.9%0.0%2.2%
Maxx Williams1.60.9002.51.60.91.9%0.0%1.7%
Ameer Abdullah001.5-0.70.81.5-0.70.0%7.9%4.7%
Kyle Rudolph1.5-1.50001.5-1.511.5%0.0%4.7%
Trevor Davis1.52.3003.81.52.33.4%0.0%2.8%
Darren Fells1.5-1.50001.5-1.53.2%0.0%2.7%
MyCole Pruitt1.5-1.50001.5-1.53.7%0.0%2.7%
Dwayne Harris1.50.2001.71.50.23.7%0.0%2.6%
Jakobi Meyers1.51.7003.21.51.72.6%0.0%2.1%
Anthony Sherman1.51002.51.512.5%0.0%1.9%
Blake Bell1.50.2001.71.50.22.5%0.0%1.9%
Charles Clay1.50001.51.501.8%0.0%1.6%
Adam Humphries1.40.1001.51.40.13.4%0.0%2.5%
Jamize Olawale1.4-1.40001.4-1.42.8%0.0%2.2%
Josh Bellamy1.41.1002.51.41.12.3%0.0%2.0%
Ian Thomas1.4-1.40001.4-1.42.5%0.0%2.0%
Darwin Thompson1.4-0.1001.31.4-0.12.3%0.0%1.8%
Seth Roberts1.40.60021.40.62.9%0.0%1.8%
Anthony Miller1.4-1.40001.4-1.41.8%0.0%1.6%
Chad Beebe1.30.6001.91.30.610.0%0.0%4.1%
Robert Tonyan Jr.1.32.5003.81.32.52.9%0.0%2.5%
Virgil Green1.30.1001.41.30.12.3%0.0%2.0%
Nick Bawden1.3-0.30011.3-0.32.1%0.0%1.7%
Darrell Henderson001.3-1.301.3-1.30.0%6.8%1.6%
Jeremy Sprinkle1.20.6001.81.20.61.8%0.0%1.7%
Jesse James1.11.4002.51.11.41.8%0.0%1.4%
DeAndre Washington001-0.20.81-0.20.0%6.1%1.8%
Ty Montgomery001-0.60.41-0.60.0%12.2%1.7%
Derek Watt001-0.60.41-0.60.0%9.4%1.5%
Demetrius Harris1-10001-11.8%0.0%1.5%
Gerald Everett10.7001.710.71.6%0.0%1.2%
Mecole Hardman0.9-0.90000.9-0.91.5%0.0%1.2%
Jalen Richard000.7-0.40.30.7-0.40.0%4.3%1.2%
Brandon Bolden000.60.10.70.60.10.0%3.9%0.8%
Ty Johnson000.50.10.60.50.10.0%3.7%0.7%
Mark Walton000.4-0.30.10.4-0.30.0%7.7%0.7%

Some Observations

Jamison Crowder led all players with 17 targets. Unsurprisingly he led all players in receiving EP as well. But he ranked just 17th in receiving PPR (fantasy points from receiving production). Part of the problem is that he didn’t score a touchdown. But a bigger problem is that he only had 99 yards. I read somewhere that he’s the first WR in NFL history to have 14 catches and fail to surpass 100 yards. I don’t know if that’s true, but when you see his pass location profile it’s easy to explain why that’s the case.

Only one of Crowder’s 17 targets traveled at least 10 yards downfield, and he didn’t catch that target. His 51 air yards in Week 1 ranked 60th, which wouldn’t be so alarming if he didn’t have three more targets than the next most targeted player.

Ultimately if you’re buying Crowder on his volume, you should be aware that targets are only a part of the overall story of a player’s volume, and that the rest of Crowder’s story isn’t as compelling.

Crowder led all players in receiving EP, but the Jets also ranked in the top 10 in team receiving EP, which is something we maybe shouldn’t expect to continue given Adam Gase’s history. For that reason it can also be useful to look at a player’s share of his team’s expected points. Crowder performs well here too, but DeAndre Hopkins leads the way, accounting for nearly half of his teams receiving EP. A full 45% of Houston’s targets were directed Hopkins’ way. No other player on the Texans had more than five targets. Expect this to change as Will Fuller continues to recover and Keke Coutee returns to the lineup.

Hopkins led all players in share of receiving EP, but not in total EP. The Vikings attempted only 10 passes, so between his 21 carries and two targets, Dalvin Cook accounted for just under 50% of his team’s total expected output. Minnesota’s 13 receiving expected points is by far the lowest for any team in Week 1,1 so we shouldn’t expect Cook to command this large a share of his team’s production every week. That said, Minnesota’s coaches have been giving us plenty of signals that they would pass the ball only 10 times every game if they could.

Christian McCaffrey led all players in total EP, and actually outperformed his opportunity. While he did lead his team in targets, he didn’t lead the Panthers in receiving EP. That distinction goes to D.J. Moore, who barely underperformed his 16.6 expected points. In fact, Moore’s Week 1 workload was more valuable than any of his previous games.

 

Todd Gurley’s coaches said he wouldn’t be on a pitch count, but that didn’t stop them from giving the high-leverage touches to backup Malcolm Brown. Brown ended with 9.9 total expected points to Gurley’s 7.6. It’s hard to draw conclusions from one week, but anyone who drafted Gurley, even at his depressed price, has permission to now consider starting to panic.

No team was more efficient in Week 1 than the Ravens. Only one player, Hayden Hurst, had negative receiving FPOE. Even Willie Snead outproduced his opportunity — something he hasn’t done all that often in recent years.

Baltimore did most of their damage through the air, with Lamar Jackson failing to reach double-digit carries for the first time since becoming a starter.

They were less efficient on the ground as a group, with Gus Edwards’ negative 9.0 FPOE offsetting Mark Ingram’s 9.8 FPOE.2 Ingram led the way in the fantasy production department, but Edwards actually handled the more valuable workload. This looks like potentially a four-way committee, with Justice Hill mixing in and Jackson nearly guaranteed to see his rushing attempts increase. For the time being, I’m not buying any Ravens RBs unless you can get Hill at a discount.

Baltimore may have been the most efficient team, but no team had more total expected points or more receiving expected points than Arizona. It helps that they played five full quarters, but even if you account for the overtime period and dock their EP by 20%, they would still finish in the top five in receiving EP. Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and KeeSean Johnson all finished with double-digit targets. David Johnson and Damiere Byrd join them in the tier of players who logged double-digit receiving expected points. Don’t read too much into an overtime game, but all indications are that this offense will be a treasure trove of receiving opportunity all year long.

Speaking of David Johnson, it’s encouraging to see his usage return to something closer to his 2016 profile, when he surpassed 10 expected points per game in both rushing and receiving. In Week 1 he averaged 6.4 air yards per target (AYPT) — a massive upgrade over the 0.8 air yards per target he saw in 2018, and even an improvement on his 2016 AYPT of 4.4.

Assuming he continues to see deep targets, the elusive 1,000-1,000 season may still be in reach.

Image Credit: Steven King/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: D.J. Moore.

  1. The next closest team — the Seahawks — more than doubled that total, and no other team had less than 40 receiving EP.  (back)
  2. What doesn’t get factored into these numbers is cornerback Anthony Levine’s 60-yard rush on a fake punt. The truth is that the Dolphins are perhaps a much worse team than anyone could have anticipated. Reports that several Dolphins players phoned their agents to demand trades after losing to Baltimore by 49 points are perhaps apocryphal, but also understandable.  (back)

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