Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our GLSP projections to find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Yahoo! DFS.
This week there’s one game I’m targeting with a full game stack and that’s Seahawks-Cardinals — 48-point total with the Seahawks favored by 5.5 points. But in addition to this game having good Vegas prospects, both offenses are fairly concentrated, which we love for DFS stacking purposes. Within this article you will see screenshots from various tools that RotoViz provides, such as the Stat Explorer, GLSP Projections, and DFS Optimizer. These are all great research tools that I use on a weekly basis for both DFS and my season-long leagues.
Let’s get to the plays!
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Russell Wilson | 17.6 Opp Score | $33
Russell Wilson in Week 4 is what happens when efficiency meets opportunity. We know the Cardinals love to play an up-tempo style of football and they’ve been forcing opponents to air it out because 1) their secondary stinks and 2) despite their 0-2-1 record, the games have remained pretty competitive. The Seahawks come into this game as a big favorite (5.5 points) and given how the Cardinals have been picked apart by opposing pass offenses this season (see table below) it’s hard to ignore Wilson this week in both cash and GPPs.
Kyler Murray | 17.5 Opp Score | $28
We know the story about Kyler Murray by now — he ranks first in expected points (EP) per game, but 43rd in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). The efficiency will start correcting itself, but Yahoo! has yet to correct the price on Murray as he’s still priced as the QB13.
Marlon Mack | 22.2 Opp Score | $24
The more I’ve dug into this slate the more Marlon Mack is staring me in the face. The Vegas numbers work heavily in his favor as the Colts are at home, big favorites, and have a high team total. Mack has maintained a snap rate around 70% and leads the league in rush attempts. The matchup against the Raiders is a lot softer than it looks on paper as they’ve faced some soft run games until last week when the Vikings stuffed the ball down their throats. The Colts offense may be without T.Y. Hilton, which just opens Mack up to even more touches.
Leonard Fournette | 21.2 Opp Score | $20
While reading Tyler Loechner’s 15 Stats To Know For DFS In Week 4 article there was one stat that really stood out to me.
It’s going to be an ugly game, but Leonard Fournette remains a focal point of this offense and basically doesn’t come off the field. He’s also seen at least six targets in each game so far, which is obviously great for PPR scoring.
Tyler Lockett | 21.8 Opp Score | $23
If you love Wilson this week, then you have to love Tyler Lockett, who is seeing a ton of opportunity (12 and 14 targets his last two weeks). The Seahawks are clearly making him a focal point of the offense and in a game where we should expect an uptick in passing I don’t see why those targets won’t keep coming. In GPPs, you should also consider D.K. Metcalf ($15) who has seen over 100 air yards in each game.
Christian Kirk | 12.5 Opp Score | $19
Much like his quarterback, Christian Kirk is the poster child for wide receivers waiting for positive regression to hit. Kirk ranks fourth in targets, sixth in EP per game and 148th in FPOE. If Murray’s efficiency bounces back this week you’d better believe Kirk is the main beneficiary of that. The GLSP machine isn’t in love with Kirk — evident by his 12.5 opportunity score — but I’m going rogue, calling an audible, and trusting that Kirk will continue to threat double-digit targets.
Will Fuller | 15.4 Opp Score | $16
This play is more for GPPs, but Will Fuller could be on the verge of a breakout and a matchup against the Panthers defense (see table below) could be the perfect opportunity. The Panthers will focus most of their attention towards DeAndre Hopkins, which should leave Fuller in single coverage. The last two weeks, he’s commanded at least a 20% share of team targets and the Panthers defense has allowed a ton of opportunity to opposing wide receivers this season.
Greg Olsen | 14.9 Opp Score | $19
Greg Olsen saw his highest weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) of the season in his first game with Kyle Allen at quarterback. More importantly, Olsen is looking like he’s found the fountain of youth and is commanding a high target share, which should bode well for him in a paced-up matchup vs. the Texans.
Here’s what the DFS Optimizer spit out after locking in some of the plays above:
Good luck this week!