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Dollars Per Opportunity: Josh Allen Momentum

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our GLSP projections to find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a primary focus on Yahoo! DFS.

FOOTBALL IS BACK BABY!1

This year this article is taking a primary look at Yahoo! DFS — that’s right, your favorite yodeling commercial does DFS too! I’m going to look at player prices and our RotoViz projections to find the best DFS values every week. This exercise helps me build a solid core for my weekly lineups and hopefully will help us all cash in big this season.

The format of this article will stay pretty much the same as prior seasons, but over the first couple of weeks we may tweak a couple of things here and there as we gain our footing for the 2019 season.

Let’s get to the plays!

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen | 17.1 Opp Score | $24

Typically, when you hear Josh Allen’s name it’s the punch line to a joke, but when it comes to fantasy sports there’s nothing funny about his game. After a rough start Allen really finished the season strong by posting four QB1 scores in his final six games. Using RotoViz’s new NFL Stat Explorer we can visualize this transformation in a nice chart:

He’s not the most accurate quarterback — that’s for sure — but he has major rushing upside, a big arm, and a new deep threat in John Brown to air it out.

RUNNING BACK

Leonard Fournette | 23.6 Opp Score | $20

By far the biggest value on the board, Leonard Fournette is in prime position for a big 2019 season. T.J. Yeldon is out of the picture, which means the competition for touches is slim. There’s also the chance that Nick Foles is a better-than-slight upgrade at quarterback over Blake Bortles and that could lead to a lot of touchdown upside. He’s only costing you 10% of your budget with a salary of $20, which is the same as other running backs like Mark Ingram, Tevin Coleman, and Marlon Mack — and he has much more upside than these other players.

David Johnson | 24.8 Opp Score | $23

The Cardinals offense was reconstructed this offseason, which can only mean good things for David Johnson moving forward. Just take a look at the difference in his production in a good offense (2016) under Bruce Arians and a bad offense (2018) under Steve Wilks:

At $23 you’re only using 11.5% of your roster budget, which will not last long if Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is all it’s cracked up to be. There will be a big benefit to being an early adopter in DFS as ownership levels probably won’t be where they should be to start. Get on the train early!

WIDE RECEIVER

Kenny Golladay | 20.6 Opp Score | $15

While everyone is fawning over Chris Godwin and the pass-happy Buccaneers offense, a nice pivot might be his 2017 draft counterpart, Kenny Golladay. Golladay is ready to take over as the alpha in a Lions offense that may be conservative overall, but in Week 1 gets a nice matchup against a Cardinals secondary that is missing it’s top two cornerbacks — Patrick Peterson is serving a suspension and Robert Alford is injured. I expect the Lions pass offense to be fairly concentrated and would not be shocked if this game goes over the 46.5 game total — both things being great for Golladay’s Week 1 fantasy outlook.

TIGHT END

David Njoku | 11.3 Opp Score | $10

The hype train left the Cleveland Browns station a long time ago, but one player who is still flying a little under the radar is David Njoku — who is a 6-foot-4-inch, 250-pound athletic freak. If you’re under the impression that the Browns offense is going to crush in 2019 (which many are) that means increased red-zone opportunities and who better to target in the end zone than a massive, athletically gifted tight end? It only costs you five percent of your budget to get some exposure to that upside.

Here’s what an optimized looks like utilizing our DFS Optimizer tool and my picks above:

 

Image Credit: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Josh Allen.

  1. Apologies to those who watched Thursday Night Football  (back)

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