The Fantasy Football Ghost guides us through the first week of NFL byes with his FanDuel cash plays for Week 4!
My player recommendations delivered 2.8 times their expected value in Week 3. Dak Prescott, Christian McCaffrey, and Greg Olsen each ranked in the top 10 at their respective positions, and McCaffrey and Olsen cracked the top five. The lone disappointment last week came from Kenny Golladay, who posted a meager 2.7 fantasy points despite a phenomenal matchup.
As long as we keep up our overall winning streak, we should be able to withstand a few duds in cash lineups and still walk away with money in our pockets. Obviously, the plan is to keep those duds to a minimum, which we accomplished last week. Here’s hoping Week 4 proves just as fruitful for our FanDuel cash lineups as well.
In order to measure the success of the players I recommend to our RotoViz readers, I will review the players that I recommended the prior week and report their value multipliers. I will then calculate the average multiplier across the recommended player pool to give me a barometer of success for that week. My stated goal is to produce an average greater than 2.5 times value. If I achieve that goal, the week will be considered a success.
Much of the data presented in this piece can be found in the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer, Game Level Similarity Projections, and NFL Projections Machine. I also want to encourage readers to check out the RotoViz NFL Lineup Optimizer so that everyone can squeeze the most value out of their lineups each week.
FanDuel NFL Cash Plays for Week 4
Quarterback: Case Keenum ($7,200)
For the first time this season, I’m not targeting the QB facing the Dolphins defense. That said, I will probably still submit a few lineups featuring Philip Rivers ($7,800) tot take advantage of that matchup as well. Nonetheless, Case Keenum offers better value given his $600 price discount.
He faces a Giants defense that has allowed a league-high 332.3 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, Washington ranks ninth with 288.3 passing yards per game. New York is also allowing the third-most passing touchdowns (2.7) to opposing QBs, while Washington ranks third with 2.3 passing TDs per game.
Keenum will be in position to gain large chunks of yardage against the Giants’ secondary. New York has allowed the seventh-most air yards (1052) and the highest average depth of target (10.6) this season. Keenum affords us valuable price savings against a defense that could challenge Miami as worst in the league.
Running Back: Wayne Gallman ($5,800)
Be forewarned, this pick will be about as widely used — or “chalk” as they say in fantasy circles — as you can possibly imagine. I expect to see many DFS players using Wayne Gallman in some form or fashion this week. His $5,800 price tag is exceptionally affordable for a starting RB after Saquon Barkkley suffered high-ankle sprain in Week 3.
With that preface out of the way, Gallman’s matchup is very enticing. He faces a Washington defense that is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (142). Opponents have found success by running the ball on 45.9% percent of their offensive plays, which is the sixth-highest rush-rate against any defense in the NFL.
Over the past five games, opposing RBs report an average expected point (EP) total of 24.7, the sixth-highest average in the league over that span. Even if he Gallman only breaks even on that EP average, he would finish the week at 4.26 times value. By any measure, that would be an exceptional play — and one that potential owners must strongly consider if they hope to keep pace with a sizable chunk of the field this week.
Wide Receiver: Keenan Allen ($8,100)
Finally, the position where we can spend all the money we’ve been saving elsewhere. Keenan Allen absolutely dominated Houston last week with a 37.1-point showing on FanDuel. Now he faces a Miami team that has been bullied for three weeks straight.
The Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game (291.3) to opponents thus far. Meanwhile, Allen is projected to score the fifth-most points among WRs this week per the Game Level Similarity Projection (GLSP) app. The GLSP places his likelihood of scoring 2.5 times his value at 46%, which are the kind of odds we’re looking for from a top-dollar asset.
Just to make the matchup a bit sweeter — the proverbial cherry on top if you will — over the past five games, Miami has allowed the second-highest Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR) in the league. Allen boasts a league-high 495 air yards through the first three games, making for quite the matchup to exploit this Sunday.
Tight End: Darren Waller ($6,700)
Darren Waller has been a revelation for both the Raiders and fantasy fans alike. He ranks first in receptions, third in receiving yards, and sixth in air yards among TEs. But perhaps his most intriguing statistic is his 150 yards after the catch (YAC), which leads all TEs and ties him for fifth-most among all players at any position.
Waller’s matchup against the Colts provides him an opportunity to climb further up many of these leaderboards. Indianapolis has allowed the sixth-most receptions and fourth-most fantasy points to TEs through three games. Over the past five games, the Colts have been projected to allow the second-most Expected Points (EP) while also reporting the third-highest Fantasy Points over Expectation (FPOE) against TEs.
Waller’s $6,700 price tag allows for a lot of flexibility across our lineups.
Many of the players identified this week have low price tags but high ceilings. Yes, we are paying up a bit at WR, but our other cheap values provide ample flexibility for our lineups as a whole. As always, good luck to everyone, and feel free to both reach out to me and follow me on Twitter at @TheFFGhost. I’ll do my best to answer any and all questions you may have!