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Mark Andrews Is the Next George Kittle, Only More Efficient: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 2

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency metric that accounts for both yards and touchdowns in a single number. Add EP (opportunity) and FPOE (efficiency) together, and you get a player’s actual fantasy output.

This weekly article will look at some of the leaders in expected points and try to tease out how fantasy gamers can take advantage of these various volume and efficiency situations. Week 2 was not as explosive as Week 1, and also didn’t see as many players reach double-digit targets. But we still have some surprising results to go over. First, the Week 2 data:1

Week 2 Expected Points

PLAYERreTRGS.Q1reEP.Q1ruEP.Q1ruFPOE.Q1PPR.Q1Total EPTotal FPOEreEP ShareruEP SharetotEP Share
Zach Ertz1631.20017.231.2-1439.6%0.0%35.2%
Emmanuel Sanders1325.40028.825.43.431.2%0.0%27.3%
Austin Ekeler68.815.2-2.625.3241.316.4%82.2%33.3%
Keenan Allen1523.50017.823.5-5.743.8%0.0%32.6%
Le'Veon Bell1012.710-3.222.922.70.234.3%100.0%48.3%
D.J. Moore1422.70017.922.7-4.829.4%0.0%25.8%
David Montgomery33.519.1-6.913.822.6-8.89.5%76.7%36.5%
Curtis Samuel1321.40.9-0.714.322.3-827.7%8.3%25.3%
Julio Jones1021.80027.621.85.828.5%0.0%25.7%
Larry Fitzgerald11210015.421-5.634.7%0.0%31.2%
Sammy Watkins1320.60010.920.6-9.730.2%0.0%26.3%
Aaron Jones67.712.94.72520.64.414.7%75.4%29.6%
Michael Thomas1319.90018.919.9-145.3%0.0%38.5%
Terry McLaurin919.60017.219.6-2.431.6%0.0%25.8%
Christian McCaffrey69.49.9-6.27.319.3-1212.2%91.7%21.9%
Calvin Ridley10190024.5195.524.9%0.0%22.4%
Marquise Brown1318.70016.618.7-2.134.3%0.0%29.3%
Saquon Barkley79.19.57.222.518.63.915.8%88.8%27.2%
Tyler Lockett12180017.918-0.133.2%0.0%26.9%
Ezekiel Elliott22.814.82.32017.62.45.3%80.4%24.7%
Frank Gore22.515-2.216.317.5-1.25.3%74.6%25.9%
Bennie Fowler1016.11.20.812.117.3-5.227.9%11.2%25.3%
Nelson Agholor11170024.7177.721.6%0.0%19.2%
Joe Mixon56.810.1-8.45.716.9-11.28.8%77.1%18.8%
Kenny Golladay1016.40025.716.49.335.7%0.0%28.5%
Leonard Fournette67.58.3-3.612.715.8-3.115.0%100.0%27.1%
Tyler Boyd1015.70022.215.76.520.4%0.0%17.4%
Odell Beckham Jr.1015.20028.115.212.932.3%0.0%26.3%
Raheem Mostert47.67.60.724.115.28.917.5%29.5%22.0%
Nick Chubb45.59.52.719.8154.811.7%88.0%25.9%
Todd Gurley45.59.42.915.714.90.811.4%62.7%23.6%
Royce Freeman79.950.415.214.90.312.2%42.7%16.0%
D.J. Chark914.90018.514.93.629.9%0.0%25.6%
John Ross814.80021.214.86.419.2%0.0%16.4%
Phillip Lindsay78.16.7-3.110.614.8-4.210.0%57.3%15.9%
Cooper Kupp914.20.40.217.614.6329.5%2.7%23.1%
Davante Adams914.60017.614.6327.9%0.0%21.0%
Deebo Samuel712.91.6-120.414.55.829.7%6.2%21.0%
Sony Michel0014.40.114.514.40.10.0%62.6%21.0%
Antonio Brown813.50.9-0.416.114.41.729.7%3.9%21.0%
Chris Godwin914.20026.114.211.935.6%0.0%27.0%
Juju Smith-Schuster814.10013.414.1-0.725.7%0.0%21.8%
Adrian Peterson23.510.4-1.911.213.9-2.75.6%75.4%18.3%
James Conner45.88.11.213.513.9-0.410.6%81.0%21.5%
Derrick Henry33.99.94.217.313.83.59.7%84.6%26.6%
Marlon Mack34.29.6-4.58.313.8-5.510.0%76.2%25.2%
Greg Olsen913.7001713.73.317.7%0.0%15.6%
Dalvin Cook34.29.41228.113.614.59.6%80.3%24.5%
Travis Kelce913.60023.713.610.120.0%0.0%17.3%
Mark Andrews913.60025.213.611.625.0%0.0%21.3%
Tyrell Williams713.40015.613.42.222.8%0.0%19.7%
Mike Evans813.40010.113.4-3.333.6%0.0%25.5%
Mack Hollins813.4001013.4-3.417.0%0.0%15.1%
Vance McDonald713.10022.813.19.723.9%0.0%20.2%
Randall Cobb611.21.3-0.28.512.5-421.2%7.1%17.6%
Hunter Renfrow812.500712.5-5.521.3%0.0%18.4%
Chris Thompson811.21.2-0.910.112.4-2.318.0%8.7%16.3%
Peyton Barber11.410.83.415.912.23.73.5%85.0%23.2%
John Brown812.20014.212.2225.7%0.0%18.1%
Jarvis Landry712.2006.212.2-625.9%0.0%21.1%
DeAndre Hopkins812.100912.1-3.126.1%0.0%20.2%
Christian Kirk8120017.4125.419.8%0.0%17.8%
Courtland Sutton71200812-414.8%0.0%12.9%
Michael Gallup811.90012.811.90.922.5%0.0%16.7%
Kenyan Drake68.13.5-1.69.811.6-1.814.2%49.3%18.1%
Adam Thielen811.40012.511.41.126.0%0.0%20.5%
Stefon Diggs711.30011.511.30.225.7%0.0%20.3%
Miles Sanders45.55.6-2.86.711.1-4.47.0%56.6%12.5%
D.K. Metcalf711.10015.111.1420.5%0.0%16.6%
Jared Cook711.1004.511.1-6.625.3%0.0%21.5%
Jakeem Grant710.50.5-0.94.811-6.218.4%7.0%17.2%
Chris Carson346.9-0.811.810.90.97.4%54.8%16.3%
Mohamed Sanu710.8005.610.8-5.214.1%0.0%12.7%
Will Fuller710.600810.6-2.622.8%0.0%17.7%
Evan Engram810.50010.810.50.318.2%0.0%15.4%
Darren Waller710.50012.310.51.817.9%0.0%15.4%
Trey Quinn710.4007.610.4-2.816.7%0.0%13.7%
Jason Witten410.40012.510.42.119.7%0.0%14.6%
Carlos Hyde0010.4-1.4910.4-1.40.0%76.5%17.3%
Damien Williams56.14.3-3.58.610.4-1.89.0%41.7%13.3%
Alvin Kamara34.45.9-1.4710.3-3.310.0%75.6%19.9%
Damiere Byrd710.30010.510.30.217.0%0.0%15.3%
Devonta Freeman455.3-3.19.410.3-0.96.5%62.4%12.1%
Austin Hooper610.2007.410.2-2.813.4%0.0%12.0%
Mark Ingram22.87.3-2.69.710.1-0.45.1%78.5%15.8%
Marvin Jones610.1009.310.1-0.822.0%0.0%17.6%
Jeff Wilson0010.15.315.410.15.30.0%39.1%14.6%
Delanie Walker610007.910-2.124.9%0.0%19.3%
Jamaal Williams45.84.2-1.413.1103.111.1%24.6%14.4%
Gerald Everett510005.110-4.920.8%0.0%15.8%
Allen Robinson79.9008.19.9-1.826.8%0.0%16.0%
Mecole Hardman69.90016.19.96.214.5%0.0%12.6%
T.Y. Hilton69.80014.39.84.523.3%0.0%17.9%
Tyler Eifert59.7009.99.70.212.6%0.0%10.8%
Demarcus Robinson69.70035.29.725.514.2%0.0%12.4%
LeSean McCoy34.15.5-3.25.39.6-4.36.0%53.4%12.2%
Mike Williams59.50011.39.51.817.7%0.0%13.2%
Geronimo Allison59.50012.59.5318.1%0.0%13.7%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling69.4004.99.4-4.517.9%0.0%13.5%
DeVante Parker79.30009.3-9.316.3%0.0%14.5%
Preston Williams69.30010.39.3116.3%0.0%14.5%
Will Dissly59.300229.312.717.2%0.0%13.9%
Kerryon Johnson33.95.2-1.116.89.17.78.5%45.2%15.8%
DaeSean Hamilton69.1003.59.1-5.611.2%0.0%9.8%
Robby Anderson690012.193.124.3%0.0%19.1%
James White47.41.4-0.411.98.83.116.3%6.1%12.8%
Tarik Cohen56.62-0.24.58.6-4.117.8%8.0%13.9%
Kalen Ballage56.81.8-1.22.28.6-6.411.9%25.4%13.4%
Jarius Wright68.6003.58.6-5.111.1%0.0%9.8%
Jeff Heuerman58.4006.18.4-2.310.3%0.0%9.0%
Ryan Grant58.2000.88.2-7.413.9%0.0%12.0%
Amari Cooper58.10014.48.16.315.3%0.0%11.4%
Corey Davis58.1006.88.1-1.320.1%0.0%15.6%
Brandin Cooks47.60.4-0.216.688.615.8%2.7%12.7%
Chris Conley580011.383.316.0%0.0%13.7%
Cody Latimer580068-213.9%0.0%11.7%
Jamison Crowder67.90087.90.121.4%0.0%16.8%
Dede Westbrook57.8001.37.8-6.515.6%0.0%13.4%
Eric Ebron47.80011.57.83.718.5%0.0%14.3%
Cody Core57.8005.87.8-210.1%0.0%8.7%
Josh Gordon57.6003.97.6-3.716.7%0.0%11.1%
David Johnson11.36.11.38.47.412.1%89.7%11.0%
Matt Breida11.45.96.214.27.36.93.2%22.9%10.5%
Giovani Bernard34.33-2.42.37.3-55.6%22.9%8.1%
Julian Edelman46.40.7-0.69.27.12.114.1%3.0%10.4%
Kyle Rudolph57.1003.97.1-3.216.2%0.0%12.8%
Noah Fant47007.370.38.6%0.0%7.5%
T.J. Jones46.80012.86.8611.8%0.0%9.9%
A.J. Brown56.7005.56.7-1.216.7%0.0%12.9%
Dawson Knox46.7002.86.7-3.914.1%0.0%9.9%
Derek Carrier56.7006.36.7-0.411.4%0.0%9.8%
Josh Jacobs006.53.49.96.53.40.0%69.9%9.5%
Ito Smith33.62.80.46.56.40.14.7%32.9%7.5%
Jordan Akins36.4004.56.4-1.913.8%0.0%10.7%
Chester Rogers46.4005.46.4-115.2%0.0%11.7%
Breshad Perriman46.30006.3-6.315.8%0.0%12.0%
D'Ernest Johnson451.3-0.586.31.710.6%12.0%10.9%
Jesse James46.3004.86.3-1.513.7%0.0%11.0%
Zay Jones36.2002.46.2-3.813.1%0.0%9.2%
Richie James46.2001.76.2-4.514.3%0.0%9.0%
Ty Montgomery34.51.70.876.20.89.5%8.5%9.2%
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside46.2001.46.2-4.87.9%0.0%7.0%
Rashaad Penny11.44.87.413.56.27.32.6%38.1%9.3%
Rex Burkhead23.22.9-0.88.86.12.77.0%12.6%8.9%
Cole Beasley460012.366.312.7%0.0%8.9%
Vernon Davis46005.96-0.19.7%0.0%7.9%
James O'Shaughnessy46006.860.812.0%0.0%10.3%
Diontae Johnson45.9002.75.9-3.210.8%0.0%9.1%
Keke Coutee45.9002.75.9-3.212.7%0.0%9.8%
Ryan Switzer45.70015.7-4.710.4%0.0%8.8%
Geoff Swaim45.7004.45.7-1.311.4%0.0%9.8%
Jalen Richard34.51.2-0.92.55.7-3.27.7%12.9%8.4%
Jordan Howard11.44.3-2.53.65.7-2.11.8%43.4%6.4%
Tyler Higbee35.6004.15.6-1.511.6%0.0%8.9%
Malcolm Brown11.44.2-0.55.75.60.12.9%28.0%8.9%
Darren Fells35.6001.95.6-3.712.1%0.0%9.3%
Paul Richardson35.50010.65.55.18.9%0.0%7.2%
Ty Johnson22.82.50.55.65.30.36.1%21.7%9.2%
C.J. Prosise34.20.9-0.255.1-0.17.7%7.1%7.6%
Michael Crabtree35003.35-1.78.3%0.0%7.4%
George Kittle34.9008.44.93.511.3%0.0%7.1%
Damion Willis34.9001.64.9-3.36.4%0.0%5.4%
Nick Boyle34.9002.44.9-2.59.0%0.0%7.7%
Alex Erickson34.8002.44.8-2.46.2%0.0%5.3%
Tony Pollard12.32.3-0.13.54.6-1.14.4%12.5%6.5%
Marquise Goodwin34.60016.74.612.110.6%0.0%6.6%
Kenny Stills34.6005.84.61.29.9%0.0%7.7%
DeAndre Washington231.6-0.75.54.60.95.1%17.2%6.8%
Devin Smith34.60016.44.611.88.7%0.0%6.5%
Justin Jackson11.23.32.67.44.52.92.2%17.8%6.2%
Tre'Quan Smith34.5007.94.53.410.3%0.0%8.7%
Miles Boykin34.5002.14.5-2.48.3%0.0%7.1%
Malik Turner34.5008.44.53.98.3%0.0%6.7%
Drew Sample34.5004.54.505.9%0.0%5.0%
Duke Johnson11.23.2-0.13.14.4-1.32.6%23.5%7.3%
Damion Ratley34.40074.42.69.3%0.0%7.6%
Mark Walton23.11.30.23.74.4-0.75.4%18.3%6.9%
Robert Woods23.80.60.36.24.41.87.9%4.0%7.0%
T.J. Hockenson34.3001.74.3-2.69.3%0.0%7.5%
Jack Doyle34.3004.14.3-0.210.2%0.0%7.9%
Russell Shepard34.3003.94.3-0.47.5%0.0%6.3%
James Washington34.2004.34.20.17.7%0.0%6.5%
Hayden Hurst14.2007.14.22.97.7%0.0%6.6%
Phillip Dorsett34.2006.94.22.79.2%0.0%6.1%
Ben Braunecker34.2004.44.20.211.4%0.0%6.8%
Isaiah McKenzie23.60.6-0.212.44.28.27.6%3.0%6.2%
Darren Sproles34002.54-1.55.1%0.0%4.5%
Chase Edmonds23.30.7-0.53.74-0.35.5%10.3%5.9%
Trey Burton34002.54-1.510.8%0.0%6.5%
C.J. Ham340004-49.1%0.0%7.2%
Mike Gesicki23.9002.13.9-1.86.8%0.0%6.1%
Adam Shaheen33.9005.43.91.510.5%0.0%6.3%
Nyheim Hines23.10.70.22.43.8-1.47.4%5.6%6.9%
Auden Tate23.6001.63.6-24.7%0.0%4.0%
Jordan Wilkins11.32.35.99.63.663.1%18.3%6.6%
KeeSean Johnson23.5006.13.52.65.8%0.0%5.2%
Taylor Gabriel23.20.31.13.53.508.6%1.2%5.7%
Justice Hill230.5-0.12.43.5-1.15.5%5.4%5.5%
Kendrick Bourne23.4001.43.4-27.8%0.0%4.9%
Allen Hurns23.3002.33.3-15.8%0.0%5.1%
Adam Humphries230.3-0.223.3-1.37.5%2.6%6.4%
Wendell Smallwood22.80.5-0.13.33.304.5%3.6%4.3%
Steven Sims Jr.11.61.7-0.12.93.3-0.42.6%12.3%4.3%
Latavius Murray11.31.9-1.23.33.20.13.0%24.4%6.2%
Dontrelle Inman23.2003.83.20.66.0%0.0%4.4%
Josh Bellamy23.2001.53.2-1.78.6%0.0%6.8%
Matt LaCosse23.2005.33.22.17.0%0.0%4.7%
Chad Beebe23.1007.13.147.1%0.0%5.6%
Cameron Brate23003307.5%0.0%5.7%
Robert Foster230003-36.3%0.0%4.4%
Kyle Juszczyk22.40.602.13-0.95.5%2.3%4.3%
Dion Lewis11.41.5-0.62.42.9-0.53.5%12.8%5.6%
Jaylen Samuels11.41.50.34.12.91.22.6%15.0%4.5%
Tajae Sharpe22.9004.42.91.57.2%0.0%5.6%
Devin Singletary002.88.911.72.88.90.0%13.9%4.1%
Travis Benjamin22.80002.8-2.85.2%0.0%3.9%
Demaryius Thomas22.8000.92.8-1.97.6%0.0%6.0%
Irv Smith Jr.22.8000.92.8-1.96.4%0.0%5.0%
James Develin002.7-2.40.32.7-2.40.0%11.7%3.9%
Jimmy Graham22.60002.6-2.65.0%0.0%3.7%
Parris Campbell12.6008.22.65.66.2%0.0%4.8%
Darius Jennings12.6002.12.6-0.56.5%0.0%5.0%
Charles Clay22.4001.62.4-0.84.0%0.0%3.6%
Virgil Green22.4001.92.4-0.54.5%0.0%3.3%
De'Anthony Thomas12.4001.62.4-0.83.5%0.0%3.1%
C.J. Anderson002.3-1.50.82.3-1.50.0%20.0%4.0%
Cordarrelle Patterson002.22.852.22.80.0%8.8%3.6%
Derek Watt22.2001.32.2-0.94.1%0.0%3.1%
Demetrius Harris12001.42-0.64.2%0.0%3.5%
Ronald Jones001.9-10.91.9-10.0%15.0%3.6%
Alexander Mattison001.80.72.51.80.70.0%15.4%3.2%
Patrick DiMarco11.40.4-0.31.41.8-0.41.8%4.7%2.1%
Nick Vannett11.7002.31.70.63.1%0.0%2.5%
Maxx Williams11.7003.11.71.42.8%0.0%2.5%
Blake Bell11.70001.7-1.72.5%0.0%2.2%
Anthony Miller11.7001.21.7-0.54.6%0.0%2.7%
Dare Ogunbowale11.6001.91.60.34.0%0.0%3.0%
Russell Gage11.60001.6-1.62.1%0.0%1.9%
Johnny Holton11.60001.6-1.62.9%0.0%2.5%
Taywan Taylor11.60001.6-1.64.0%0.0%3.1%
Pharaoh Brown11.60001.6-1.63.4%0.0%2.8%
Donte Moncrief11.50001.5-1.52.7%0.0%2.3%
Gus Edwards001.5-0.41.11.5-0.40.0%16.1%2.4%
Justin Hardy11.50001.5-1.52.0%0.0%1.8%
Willie Snead11.5001.51.502.8%0.0%2.4%
Blake Jarwin11.5003.21.51.72.8%0.0%2.1%
Luke Stocker11.5001.41.5-0.12.0%0.0%1.8%
Rhett Ellison11.5001.81.50.32.6%0.0%2.2%
J.D. McKissic001.5-1.30.21.5-1.30.0%13.0%2.6%
Chris Hogan11.5002.21.50.71.9%0.0%1.7%
Jeremy Sprinkle11.5002.11.50.62.4%0.0%2.0%
Logan Thomas11.5001.71.50.23.3%0.0%2.6%
Lee Smith11.5001.81.50.33.2%0.0%2.2%
Jake Kumerow11.5002.21.50.72.9%0.0%2.2%
Xavier Grimble11.50001.5-1.52.7%0.0%2.3%
Wayne Gallman11.40001.4-1.42.4%0.0%2.0%
Ryan Griffin11.40001.4-1.43.8%0.0%3.0%
Mo Alie-Cox11.40001.4-1.43.3%0.0%2.6%
Deonte Harris11.4000.31.4-1.13.2%0.0%2.7%
Durham Smythe11.4003.41.422.5%0.0%2.2%
Troy Fumagalli11.4001.71.40.31.7%0.0%1.5%
Mike Davis001.3-1.20.11.3-1.20.0%5.2%2.1%
Marcedes Lewis11.30001.3-1.32.5%0.0%1.9%
Patrick Ricard11.3001.31.302.4%0.0%2.0%
Zach Line11.30001.3-1.33.0%0.0%2.5%
Nick O'Leary11.3001.61.30.32.3%0.0%2.0%
David Njoku11.20001.2-1.22.5%0.0%2.1%
Deon Cain11.20001.2-1.22.9%0.0%2.2%
Tommy Sweeney11.20001.2-1.22.5%0.0%1.8%
Danny Amendola10.70000.7-0.71.5%0.0%1.2%
Ameer Abdullah000.5-0.30.20.5-0.30.0%4.3%0.9%
Darwin Thompson000.5-0.40.10.5-0.40.0%4.9%0.6%
Benny Snell Jr.000.41.92.30.41.90.0%4.0%0.6%
Dante Pettis00000.8000.0%0.0%0.0%

Observations

While much of the attention early in the week has gone to Nelson Agholor and his 11-target game, it may have actually been Zach Ertz who benefited the most from injuries to Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson. Ertz drew 16 targets for a league-high 31.2 receiving expected points. Unfortunately he only caught half his targets and failed to score, meaning that what could have been a league-winning day turned into a merely adequate outing. Through two games Ertz ranks first among tight ends in receiving EP and 76th in receiving FPOE.

The TE who ranks first in FPOE, Mark Andrews, has scored double-digit fantasy points over his expected receiving output two weeks in a row — something no wide receiver can claim to have done in 2019. So far this season Andrews is averaging over 13 EP per game, almost exactly what George Kittle averaged during his breakout 2018.

The difference is that Kittle slightly outplayed his opportunity, whereas Andrews is destroying his. Andrews ranks in the top-five at the position in nearly every production metric.

Any thoughts that Chicago’s backfield would be a three-way committee were put to rest on Sunday as David Montgomery controlled more than one-third of Chicago’s total opportunity and more than 75% of their rushing EP. His 19.6 rushing EP led all RBs, and his 22.6 total EP ranked third. Granted, he was the worst player on the team from an efficiency standpoint, but no Bears player can claim more than three total FPOE in Week 2. Unfortunately for Chicago’s running backs, their schedule doesn’t a whole lot easier until Week 9.

Any thoughts that the Chargers’ backfield would be a committee in Melvin Gordon’s absence were also put to rest. Austin Ekeler led all Week 2 RBs in total EP with 24, and handled 33% of his team’s total EP. Unlike Montgomery, Ekeler did outperform his opportunity, en route to a top-eight PPR performance among all non-quarterbacks.

Demarcus Robinson was a Week 2 sensation, putting up over 35 PPR points. But his 9.7 receiving EP ranked only fourth on his own team, as Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, and Mecole Hardman all had more valuable receiving workloads. We kind of already knew that any Chiefs receiver could have a big day with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball, and maybe Robinson’s play has earned him more opportunity going forward. The good news for Robinson is that he’s being targeted deep downfield, and is converting those targets into catches and yards at a high rate.

I still wouldn’t chase this performance outside of the deepest leagues. For his part, Watkins now ranks inside the top 10 in most major receiving categories.

A performance I would chase, however, is D.J. Moore’s. Through two weeks he ranks in the top 10 in receiving EP share and inside the top seven in cumulative receiving EP. Reports that Cam Newton re-injured his left foot explain some of Moore’s negative FPOE, and that continues to be a small concern going forward. But Moore appears talented enough to overcome poor QB play, and if his opportunity keeps up at this level we could see him finish the season as a top-12 WR.

Christian McCaffrey continues to pace the league in total EP, but Le’Veon Bell’s Week 2 workload vaulted him to the top of the total EP share rankings. He’s accounted for over 95% of the Jets’ rushing EP through two games, and he was the only player in Week 2 to reach double digits in both rushing EP and receiving EP. Unfortunately, he plays for the Jets, meaning he wasn’t able to do much with all his opportunity. He posted 3.2 rushing fantasy points below expectation. His 3.4 receiving FPOE just barely offset the deficit. With Luke Falk likely taking over starting QB duties in the near future, the Jets’ efficiency may not rebound, but Bell’s receiving workload might be even more secure. The bad news is those targets tend to be thrown behind the line of scrimmage.

Drew Brees is going to miss at least six weeks of the season, and in his stead Teddy Bridgewater will start for the Saints. This sounds like bad news for Saints pass-catchers, but for at least one, the early results are promising. Michael Thomas saw 13 targets for 19.9 receiving EP in Week 1 with Brees under center. In Week 2, with Bridgewater accounting for 30 of the Saints 35 pass attempts, Thomas saw 13 targets for 19.9 receiving EP.

That’s not a typo — his workload was identical with Bridgewater throwing to him. His efficiency did suffer, however, as he underperformed his opportunity in Week 2, whereas he had outperformed in Week 1. Obviously we can’t draw too many conclusions from such a small sample, but Thomas should remain a huge part of the Saints passing attack. Through two games he’s accounted for over 40% of their receiving EP, the best mark in the league.

Alvin Kamara was not so fortunate, as his total EP dipped to just over half of his season-long average from 2018.

Kamara’s PPR output on Sunday was the third-lowest of his career.

The Saints will likely make a more concerted effort to get the ball in his hands with Brees out of the lineup.

No team has two receivers in the top 12 in receiving EP, as both Pittsburgh and Minnesota did for much of the year last season. But one team is really close, and you’ll never guess which, even though we told you before the season to pay attention to this team. Yes, the Cincinnati Bengals have two receivers in the top 13 in receiving EP on the season, with John Ross ranking 11th and Tyler Boyd 13th. A.J. Green is expected back this season, but at this point he may return to find he’s out of a job.

2019 Expected Points

PLAYERSeason reEPSeason ruEPSeason totEPSeasMSreEPSeasMSruEPSeasMStotEP
Christian McCaffrey2522.247.218.8%84.4%29.6%
Larry Fitzgerald43.8043.830.1%0.0%26.9%
Keenan Allen43.1043.139.5%0.0%31.2%
Zach Ertz4304333.5%0.0%27.9%
Austin Ekeler20.921.842.719.2%74.9%30.9%
Le'Veon Bell23.618.341.924.2%95.3%35.9%
Julio Jones40.6040.626.6%0.0%23.8%
Sammy Watkins40.1040.131.2%0.0%25.8%
Michael Thomas39.8039.840.2%0.0%34.2%
D.J. Moore39.3039.329.5%0.0%24.7%
Emmanuel Sanders38.4038.427.9%0.0%23.9%
Jamison Crowder34.40.935.335.2%4.7%30.2%
Saquon Barkley16.518.134.613.2%75.7%23.2%
DeAndre Hopkins34.3034.336.9%0.0%29.6%
John Ross33.9033.922.1%0.0%19.6%
Evan Engram33.7033.726.9%0.0%22.6%
Tyler Boyd32.60.43321.2%2.0%19.0%
Chris Carson13.818.131.916.7%68.6%29.2%
Odell Beckham Jr.31.8031.830.5%0.0%25.2%
Christian Kirk30.51.231.721.0%6.7%19.4%
Kenny Golladay31.5031.529.0%0.0%23.5%
Leonard Fournette16.215.231.415.8%94.4%26.5%
Damien Williams16.813.930.713.1%51.3%19.7%
Terry McLaurin30.5030.523.8%0.0%20.6%
Cooper Kupp30.10.430.526.8%1.2%20.8%
Allen Robinson30.3030.326.6%0.0%20.5%
Calvin Ridley30.1030.119.7%0.0%17.7%
Travis Kelce30.1030.123.4%0.0%19.3%
Derrick Henry722.629.68.7%83.4%27.4%
Dalvin Cook722.529.512.3%73.5%33.7%
Phillip Lindsay17.611.829.412.8%51.5%18.3%
Chris Thompson26.42.729.120.6%13.4%19.6%
Aaron Jones9.119.528.69.4%75.3%23.4%
Davante Adams28.1028.129.1%0.0%23.0%
Robert Woods25.92.228.123.0%6.4%19.2%
Nick Chubb10.817.127.910.4%77.7%22.1%
Curtis Samuel26.90.927.820.2%3.4%17.5%
Marquise Brown27.7027.726.8%0.0%19.3%
David Johnson12.215.427.68.4%86.5%16.9%
Alvin Kamara14.512.627.114.6%72.0%23.3%
David Montgomery522274.4%65.5%18.3%
John Brown2702727.7%0.0%21.5%
Chris Godwin26.9026.929.2%0.0%23.2%
Ezekiel Elliott5.421.426.85.2%69.3%19.9%
Greg Olsen26.8026.820.2%0.0%16.8%
Mark Andrews26.8026.825.9%0.0%18.7%
Marlon Mack4.221.926.14.8%79.9%22.7%
Julian Edelman23.92.12623.4%5.5%18.5%
Juju Smith-Schuster25.8025.819.8%0.0%17.5%
James Conner11.414.325.78.8%82.7%17.4%
Courtland Sutton25.3025.318.4%0.0%15.8%
T.Y. Hilton25.1025.128.7%0.0%21.8%
Tyrell Williams2502525.2%0.0%20.0%
Bennie Fowler23.61.224.818.8%5.0%16.6%
Nelson Agholor24.6024.619.1%0.0%16.0%
Joe Mixon10.813.524.37.0%68.2%14.0%
Austin Hooper23.8023.815.6%0.0%14.0%
Mark Ingram2.820.2232.7%50.8%16.1%
Frank Gore2.520.322.82.6%71.7%18.2%
Josh Jacobs1.521.122.61.5%82.4%18.1%
Todd Gurley6.715.822.56.0%46.2%15.3%
Miles Sanders8.513.922.46.6%54.1%14.5%
Tarik Cohen20.3222.317.8%6.0%15.1%
Trey Quinn22.1022.117.3%0.0%14.9%
Amari Cooper22.1022.121.4%0.0%16.4%
Michael Gallup2202221.3%0.0%16.4%
Darren Waller2202222.2%0.0%17.6%
Jarvis Landry21.40.521.920.5%2.3%17.4%
Rex Burkhead14.96.921.814.6%18.0%15.5%
Royce Freeman11.310.321.68.2%45.0%13.5%
Sony Michel021.621.60.0%56.4%15.4%
Damiere Byrd21.6021.614.9%0.0%13.2%
D.J. Chark21.5021.521.0%0.0%18.2%
Delanie Walker21.5021.526.6%0.0%19.9%
Peyton Barber6.814.621.47.4%61.9%18.5%
George Kittle21.4021.425.1%0.0%17.0%
Tyler Lockett21.2021.225.6%0.0%19.4%
Mike Evans20.9020.922.7%0.0%18.1%
D.K. Metcalf20.9020.925.3%0.0%19.2%
Raheem Mostert911.720.710.6%28.9%16.5%
Randall Cobb191.320.318.4%4.2%15.1%
Mohamed Sanu20.2020.213.2%0.0%11.8%
James White16.63.520.116.2%9.1%14.3%
KeeSean Johnson20.1020.113.8%0.0%12.3%
Robby Anderson2002020.5%0.0%17.1%
Donte Moncrief2002015.4%0.0%13.6%
Vance McDonald19.9019.915.3%0.0%13.5%
Devonta Freeman11.28.719.97.3%49.4%11.7%
DeVante Parker19.9019.918.7%0.0%16.8%
Cole Beasley19.9019.920.5%0.0%15.8%
Danny Amendola19.4019.417.8%0.0%14.5%
Kerryon Johnson6.712.519.26.2%49.8%14.3%
T.J. Hockenson19.1019.117.6%0.0%14.3%
Deebo Samuel17.21.618.820.2%4.0%14.9%
Brandin Cooks18.40.418.816.4%1.2%12.8%
Dede Westbrook18.30.418.717.9%2.5%15.8%
Jason Witten18.6018.618.0%0.0%13.8%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling18.6018.619.3%0.0%15.2%
Preston Williams18.5018.517.4%0.0%15.6%
Chris Conley18.5018.518.1%0.0%15.6%
Cody Latimer18.5018.514.8%0.0%12.4%
DaeSean Hamilton18.1018.113.2%0.0%11.3%
Noah Fant17.10.817.912.4%3.5%11.2%
Kenyan Drake12.35.417.711.6%43.9%14.9%
Hunter Renfrow17.6017.617.7%0.0%14.1%
Tyler Eifert17.6017.611.5%0.0%10.2%
Duke Johnson9.17.616.79.8%33.3%14.4%
Marvin Jones16.20.416.614.9%1.6%12.4%
Carlos Hyde1.315.216.51.4%66.7%14.2%
Giovani Bernard10.55.916.46.8%29.8%9.5%
Matt Breida2.813.516.33.3%33.3%13.0%
LeSean McCoy5.610.716.34.4%39.5%10.5%
Jared Cook16.1016.116.3%0.0%13.8%
Vernon Davis16.1016.112.6%0.0%10.9%
Gus Edwards016.116.10.0%40.5%11.2%
Adam Thielen15.8015.827.8%0.0%18.1%
Tyler Higbee15.8015.814.0%0.0%10.8%
Jakeem Grant15.20.515.714.3%4.1%13.2%
Malcolm Brown1.414.115.51.2%41.2%10.6%
Paul Richardson15.2015.211.9%0.0%10.3%
Josh Gordon15.1015.114.8%0.0%10.7%
Will Fuller14.9014.916.0%0.0%12.9%
Ryan Switzer14.9014.911.5%0.0%10.1%
Jamaal Williams8.36.414.78.6%24.7%12.0%
Antonio Brown13.50.914.429.7%3.9%21.0%
Ryan Grant14.4014.414.5%0.0%11.5%
Stefon Diggs14.3014.325.1%0.0%16.3%
James Washington14.1014.110.8%0.0%9.6%
James O'Shaughnessy14.1014.113.8%0.0%11.9%
Demarcus Robinson1401410.9%0.0%9.0%
Adrian Peterson3.510.413.95.6%75.4%18.3%
Breshad Perriman13.7013.714.9%0.0%11.8%
Diontae Johnson13.7013.710.5%0.0%9.3%
Mike Williams13.5013.512.4%0.0%9.8%
A.J. Brown13.5013.516.7%0.0%12.5%
Mack Hollins13.4013.417.0%0.0%15.1%
Zay Jones13.4013.413.8%0.0%10.7%
Devin Singletary8.54.713.28.7%16.6%10.5%
David Njoku13.2013.212.7%0.0%10.5%
Corey Davis1301316.1%0.0%12.0%
Eric Ebron12.8012.814.6%0.0%11.1%
Mike Davis9.33.512.88.2%10.4%8.7%
Jordan Howard5.47.312.74.2%28.4%8.2%
Hayden Hurst12.6012.612.2%0.0%8.8%
Ito Smith57.512.53.3%42.6%7.3%
Geoff Swaim12.4012.412.1%0.0%10.5%
Darren Sproles7.94.512.46.1%17.5%8.0%
Kalen Ballage8.24.212.47.7%34.1%10.5%
Damion Willis12.3012.38.0%0.0%7.1%
Mike Gesicki12.3012.311.6%0.0%10.4%
Jimmy Graham12.3012.312.7%0.0%10.0%
Will Dissly12.2012.214.8%0.0%11.2%
Justin Jackson5.86.312.15.3%21.6%8.8%
Nyheim Hines8.72.711.49.9%9.9%9.9%
Taylor Gabriel10.90.311.29.6%0.9%7.6%
Dion Lewis8.32.911.210.3%10.7%10.4%
Alex Erickson11.1011.17.2%0.0%6.4%
Gerald Everett110119.8%0.0%7.5%
D'Ernest Johnson8.12.810.97.8%12.7%8.6%
Mecole Hardman10.8010.88.4%0.0%6.9%
Phillip Dorsett10.7010.710.5%0.0%7.6%
Tony Pollard2.38.210.52.2%26.5%7.8%
Ronald Jones1.5910.51.6%38.1%9.1%
Jarius Wright10.2010.27.7%0.0%6.4%
Jeff Wilson010.110.10.0%39.1%14.6%
Nick Boyle100109.7%0.0%7.0%
Jordan Akins9.609.610.3%0.0%8.3%
Geronimo Allison9.509.518.1%0.0%13.7%
Latavius Murray4.64.99.54.6%28.0%8.2%
Marquise Goodwin9.409.411.0%0.0%7.5%
Dawson Knox9.209.29.5%0.0%7.3%
Kenny Stills9.209.29.9%0.0%7.9%
Dare Ogunbowale9.209.210.0%0.0%8.0%
Richie James90910.6%0.0%7.2%
Justin Hardy9095.9%0.0%5.3%
Rashaad Penny1.47.48.81.7%28.0%8.1%
Kyle Rudolph8.608.615.1%0.0%9.8%
Jack Doyle8.508.59.7%0.0%7.4%
Wayne Gallman5.62.98.54.5%12.1%5.7%
Jeff Heuerman8.408.410.3%0.0%9.0%
Tre'Quan Smith8.208.28.3%0.0%7.0%
Kendrick Bourne8.108.19.5%0.0%6.4%
Allen Hurns8.108.17.6%0.0%6.8%
Cody Core7.807.810.1%0.0%8.7%
C.J. Anderson07.77.70.0%30.7%5.8%
Adam Shaheen7.707.76.8%0.0%5.2%
Ryan Griffin7.607.67.8%0.0%6.5%
Travis Benjamin7.507.56.9%0.0%5.4%
Cordarrelle Patterson5.527.54.8%6.0%5.1%
Jesse James7.407.46.8%0.0%5.5%
Miles Boykin7.407.47.1%0.0%5.2%
Ty Montgomery4.52.77.24.6%9.5%5.7%
Damion Ratley7.207.26.9%0.0%5.7%
Darren Fells7.107.17.6%0.0%6.1%
T.J. Jones6.806.811.8%0.0%9.9%
Jaylen Samuels4.22.66.83.2%15.0%4.6%
Derek Carrier6.706.711.4%0.0%9.8%
Willie Snead6.706.76.5%0.0%4.7%
Justice Hill33.56.52.9%8.8%4.5%
Chester Rogers6.406.415.2%0.0%11.7%
Jalen Richard4.51.96.44.5%7.4%5.1%
Blake Jarwin6.406.46.2%0.0%4.8%
Cameron Brate6.306.36.8%0.0%5.4%
Marcedes Lewis6.306.36.5%0.0%5.1%
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside6.206.27.9%0.0%7.0%
Tajae Sharpe6.206.27.7%0.0%5.7%
Chase Edmonds4.91.26.13.4%6.7%3.7%
Alexander Mattison06.16.10.0%19.9%7.0%
Keke Coutee5.905.912.7%0.0%9.8%
Ty Johnson2.835.82.6%12.0%4.3%
DeAndre Washington32.65.63.0%10.2%4.5%
Russell Gage4.415.42.9%5.7%3.2%
C.J. Prosise4.20.95.17.7%7.1%7.6%
Patrick Ricard5.105.14.9%0.0%3.6%
Michael Crabtree5058.3%0.0%7.4%
Dontrelle Inman5054.6%0.0%3.6%
Mark Walton3.11.74.82.9%13.8%4.0%
Parris Campbell4.30.54.84.9%1.8%4.2%
Adam Humphries4.40.34.75.4%1.1%4.4%
Devin Smith4.604.68.7%0.0%6.5%
Josh Bellamy4.604.64.7%0.0%3.9%
Luke Stocker4.604.63.0%0.0%2.7%
Malik Turner4.504.58.3%0.0%6.7%
Drew Sample4.504.55.9%0.0%5.0%
Nick Vannett4.504.55.4%0.0%4.1%
Johnny Holton4.504.53.5%0.0%3.1%
Chad Beebe4.404.47.7%0.0%5.0%
Patrick DiMarco40.44.42.6%2.3%2.6%
Rhett Ellison4.404.43.5%0.0%2.9%
J.D. McKissic2.91.54.42.7%6.0%3.3%
Russell Shepard4.304.37.5%0.0%6.3%
Ben Braunecker4.204.211.4%0.0%6.8%
Isaiah McKenzie3.60.64.27.6%3.0%6.2%
Deon Cain4.204.24.8%0.0%3.7%
Tommy Sweeney4.204.24.3%0.0%3.3%
Trey Burton40410.8%0.0%6.5%
C.J. Ham4049.1%0.0%7.2%
Charles Clay3.903.92.7%0.0%2.4%
Virgil Green3.703.73.4%0.0%2.7%
Auden Tate3.603.64.7%0.0%4.0%
Jordan Wilkins1.32.33.63.1%18.3%6.6%
Chris Hogan3.403.42.6%0.0%2.1%
Mo Alie-Cox3.403.43.9%0.0%3.0%
Wendell Smallwood2.80.53.34.5%3.6%4.3%
Steven Sims Jr.1.61.73.32.6%12.3%4.3%
Maxx Williams3.303.32.3%0.0%2.0%
Matt LaCosse3.203.27.0%0.0%4.7%
Derek Watt2.213.22.0%3.4%2.3%
Blake Bell3.203.22.5%0.0%2.1%
Anthony Miller3.103.12.7%0.0%2.1%
Robert Foster3036.3%0.0%4.4%
Kyle Juszczyk2.40.635.5%2.3%4.3%
Demetrius Harris3032.9%0.0%2.4%
Demaryius Thomas2.802.87.6%0.0%6.0%
Irv Smith Jr.2.802.86.4%0.0%5.0%
James Develin02.72.70.0%11.7%3.9%
Jeremy Sprinkle2.702.72.1%0.0%1.8%
Darius Jennings2.602.66.5%0.0%5.0%
De'Anthony Thomas2.402.43.5%0.0%3.1%
Ameer Abdullah0220.0%6.5%2.3%
Darwin Thompson1.40.51.91.1%1.8%1.2%
Dante Pettis1.701.72.0%0.0%1.4%
Taywan Taylor1.601.64.0%0.0%3.1%
Pharaoh Brown1.601.63.4%0.0%2.8%
Logan Thomas1.501.53.3%0.0%2.6%
Lee Smith1.501.53.2%0.0%2.2%
Jake Kumerow1.501.52.9%0.0%2.2%
Xavier Grimble1.501.52.7%0.0%2.3%
Deonte Harris1.401.43.2%0.0%2.7%
Durham Smythe1.401.42.5%0.0%2.2%
Troy Fumagalli1.401.41.7%0.0%1.5%
Zach Line1.301.33.0%0.0%2.5%
Nick O'Leary1.301.32.3%0.0%2.0%
Benny Snell Jr.00.40.40.0%4.0%0.6%
Image Credit: John Jones/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Mark Andrews.

  1. Cumulative season-long data is included at the end of the article.  (back)

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