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Week 7 Yahoo! DFS Picks

Identifying my Week 7 NFL DFS picks was easier than it’s ever been thanks to the continued work of our apps development team. The NFL Stat Explorer, the DFS Lineup Optimizer, and our world-famous Game Splits App are three windows I never close on my screen. Let’s build a plan of attack for Yahoo! DFS using my favorite research tools.

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Quarterback

Rookies Kyler Murray ($30) and Daniel Jones ($26) face-off this week and I like them both. Vegas says this game will be a shootout (O/U 49.5) and the pace app says both the Cardinals and the Giants are among the top 10 in the NFL in passing plays per game. Murray has scored at least 18.8 fantasy points in every game and has unlocked his ceiling over the past two contests with 28 and 32.2 points respectively. There are eight quarterbacks more expensive than Konami Kyler, and another five at the same price point – this seems off to me.

Jones’ fantasy production has been lackluster since his 40-plus point outburst in Week 3, but the Cardinals have no problem accommodating the wishes of opposing signal callers, surrendering an average passing line of 278/2.6 over the last five games.

Another game certain to flash QB scoring features Jared Goff ($33) and Matt Ryan ($32). With an O/U of 54, this game will attract plenty of attention and ownership. Goff carved up the Tampa Bay and Seattle secondaries for over 900 combined yards in Weeks 4 and 5 before face-planting against the 49ers. He’s yet to throw for three TDs in any game this season, but the Falcons have given up at least three passing TDs in each of the past three contests.

The Rams have twice allowed opposing QBs to toss four TDs in a game this season, but only gave up one TD in the other three games combined. I think the home track leans in Ryan’s favor here and expect a boom game rather than a flop. Despite the team’s struggles (or, perhaps thanks to), Ryan has posted at least 21.6 fantasy points in every game this season and eclipsed 34 fantasy points in each of the past two weeks.

Despite this being his third season in the league, Deshaun Watson ($39) has only suited up against the Colts twice in the regular season, both times in 2018. He’ll return to Indianapolis this week, where he led the Texans to a thrilling 37-34 shootout victory with over 400 combined yards and three total TDs last year. I don’t expect much ownership at this price on Yahoo! and Watson stacks could be a way to find a unique lineup. Watson has posted over 30 fantasy points in four of six games this season and is always a bet for a boom. The Colts have allowed 300-plus passing yards in three of their past five games, twice allowing three passing TDs over the same period.

Running Back

Saquon Barkley ($35) returns to action and gets the Cardinals, who allowed the other Uber-back they faced (Christian McCaffrey) to go off for 153/1 on the ground and 3/35 through the air. Barkley is always a consideration, but he’ll force tough decisions at other positions and there is some relative value among other elite RB salaries this week.

Leonard Fournette ($32) is on a heater with three consecutive RB1 weeks. He’s racked up at least four receptions in five of six games. The Bengals have allowed six rushing TDs over the past five weeks to go with 139 rushing yards surrendered per contest. The Bengals have also allowed the second-most expected fantasy points per game over the past five weeks (29.1), per our NFL Stat Explorer. I love Fournette for cash, and he’s a tournament staple this week as well.

Josh Jacobs ($25) is going to score at least one TD this week, maybe more. Opposing RBs have scored eight times over the past five games against Green Bay. We know Oakland is going to ride their first-round pick this week as their wide receiver room has continued to rot. I like him for at least three receptions, too.

David Johnson ($23) is an insane value, but he’s also a game-time decision. If he plays, he’s near lock-button status this week. Thanks to his consistent target market share, he ranks fourth in expected PPR per game despite his lackluster rushing performance to-date. If he doesn’t go, then Chase Edmonds ($14) will have lock-button status as the role is just too valuable to ignore.

The Rams haven’t been a great defense for opposing running backs, but Devonta Freeman ($17) appears to be on sale versus his recent performance. The NFL Stat Explorer shows his half-PPR trends below.

We know this game is going to have a lot of scoring and Freeman has at least three receptions in every game. There’s a floor and a ceiling here.

Wide Receiver and Tight End

I’ll write these positions with a focus on options for stacks, but any pass-catcher mentioned here favorably is GPP player pool worthy.

Deshaun Watson Stacks

DeAndre Hopkins ($33) and Will Fuller ($21). It’s hard to lean to Hopkins over Fuller here based on pricing, but he’s going to have his game, sooner or later. I hate just saying a player is “due,” but Nuk really is, isn’t he? I’ve talked a lot about Robert Woods being a prime regression candidate in recent weeks, but Hopkins is right there next him, ranking 115th in fantasy points over expectation per game this year.

Hopkins erupted for 10 receptions and over 160 receiving yards on the road against the Colts last season…

Fuller ranks second among all wide receivers in air yards and evidently forgot how to catch last week, narrowly missing a huge game against the Chiefs.

Darren Fells ($11) has a questionable floor, but the Colts are giving up the fifth-most expected points per game to tight ends over the past five games and Fells has three TDs over the same span.

Matt Ryan Stacks

Julio Jones ($31) and Mohamed Sanu ($13) continue to be my preferences rather than Calvin Ridley ($21). Sanu and Ridley have similar target market shares (16% and 15%), making it hard to justify spending up for the younger player. Complicating matters is the Rams just traded for Jalen Ramsey, which doesn’t bode well for Jones. In Ryan lineups I’ll likely lean to Sanu and Austin Hooper ($25). The Rams allowed Will Dissly and George Kittle over 80 yards each over the past two weeks.

Jared Goff Stacks

Cooper Kupp ($32), Robert Woods ($22), and Brandin Cooks ($20) are all in play, however the Falcons have been most susceptible to downfield receivers, making Cooks the preference here if you’re only going to play one. T.Y. Hilton, Fuller, and A.J. Brown combined for six TDs against the Falcons in Weeks 3-5. Gerald Everett ($13) is a pay-down option for a triple stack – the Falcons have surrendered there TDs to tight ends over the past two weeks. His floor is getting safer, too, as the Rams have sent at least five targets his way in each of the past three games.

Kyler Murray Stacks

I think I’ll be playing naked Kyler in those lineups, or potentially stacking him with Chase Edmonds if David Johnson doesn’t play.

Daniel Jones Stacks

Evan Engram ($27) is owner of the grail-spot against the Cardinals this week and is the obvious choice for Jones stacks (and standalone cash consideration, too). Every TE worth his salt smashes the Cardinals.

Golden Tate ($20) has quickly asserted himself as the lead Giants wide receiver with 15 targets in his first two games and a 23 percent target market share. We’ve seen three opposing wide receivers hit at least eight receptions against the Cardinals in recent weeks.

Also in Consideration at WR/TE This Week:

Darren Waller ($18) jumps off the screen as a value in a week where the Raiders don’t have many healthy pass-catching options. He’s worthy of flex-consideration in addition to being on your short list of TEs.

Alshon Jeffery ($19) draws the Cowboys, a unit which allows an average of 11.4 receptions and 146.6 yards to WRs over the past five weeks.

Zach Ertz ($22) has dropped off this year versus his record-breaking 2018 campaign, but he’s smashed the Cowboys when Carson Wentz plays.

Cowboys receivers Amari Cooper ($37) and Michael Gallup ($26) are priced aggressively by the Yahoo! team this week, and for good reason, considering the Eagles complete indifference to stopping the pass. Paying up for either player is tough, but if trends hold, one of them is going off.

Defense

The 49ers ($22) and Bills ($20) are your pay-up plays, facing the Redskins and Dolphins, respectively. If you’re punting defense, then the Seahawks ($12) are my pick.

Image Credit: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Evan Engram.

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