Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our Game Level Similarity Projections to find the hidden DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Week 9 Yahoo! DFS.
We have been on a roll with picks in this article as of late and while pricing is tough this week I think there are some edges to be had. It will be a bit of an unconventional week as my roster construction will look different than usual, but sometimes you need to zig when the pricing zags. As a reminder, within this article you will see screenshots from various amazing tools that RotoViz provides, such as the Stat Explorer, GLSP Projections, Pace App, Game Splits App and DFS Optimizer.
Let’s get to the plays!
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Drew Brees | 27.5 Opp Score | $36
When it comes to smash spots — passing games vs. the Buccaneers defense is crème de la crème. Yes, Drew Brees is more expensive than I usually recommend in this article, but once you take a look at the table below (how the Bucs defense fares vs. opposing quarterbacks) it will be easy to see why Brees is worth the extra dollars.
Josh Jacobs | 23.7 Opp Score | $29
Josh Jacobs at home has been a winning combination this season:
The Raiders have only been favored once so there’s limited sample there, but given that they are 10.5-points favorites, implied for over 29 team points, and facing a bottom-of-the-barrel defense, there’s no chance Jacobs doesn’t find the end zone at least once. Expect him to get fed early and often and put up a monster game on Sunday.
Ronald Jones | 17.7 Opp Score | $14
Despite maintaining a 50% snap share, Ronald Jones is dominating the backfield touches for Tampa Bay and yet his price has decreased from last week. Even better was that Jones is starting to get involved in the passing game as he’s seen at least two targets in each of the last three games, including eight targets last week. It’s not a great matchup, but I’m trusting the role and salary here and going back to the well.
Julian Edelman | 24.0 Opp Score | $24
Last week it was Christian Kirk who was due for big-time regression and this week I’m targeting Julian Edelman. According to the RotoViz NFL Pace Tool, we should expect a lot of plays in the Patriots-Eagles matchup, and the way to attack the defense is through the air, especially in the middle of the field. That’s an area where Edelman excels and we should see that efficiency bounce back in a big way.
Tyler Boyd | 19.2 Opp Score | $19
Another serious regression candidate, Tyler Boyd has put up a respectable 25 percent target share and 0.58 WOPR, but only ranks 32nd among wide receivers in PPR points per game. He has a plus matchup vs. the Raiders and the Bengals should be playing from behind most of the game. That recipe could lead to a spike in targets and despite the uncertainty at the quarterback position Boyd excels in the short-to-intermediate routes and should act as a safety blanket.
Dallas Goedert | 9.6 Opp Score | $10
The Eagles don’t need more incentive to run two tight end sets — they already run those sets at a league-high rate (40%) and it’s looking like they will be without top wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. That said, we all watched the Patriots struggle to stop the Ravens offense in two (and three) tight end sets two weeks ago and the NFL is certainly a copy cat league. Dallas Goedert is minimum price and was already playing 72% of the snaps and seeing 17% of the targets without the benefits of my preamble. Also, did I mention he is the minimum price?
Here’s what the DFS Optimizer spit out after locking in some of the plays above:
Good luck this week!