Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our Game Level Similarity Projections to find the hidden DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Week 9 Yahoo! DFS.
It was a very good week for the article as a lot of plays ended up hitting albeit both Chris Godwin and Robby Anderson really disappointing in what I thought were smash spots for them. Worry not … the big week is coming for Godwin — he’s just too good to keep disappointing and defenses will eventually start keying in on Mike Evans.
Let’s get to the plays!
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Kyler Murray | 25.4 Opp Score | $28
I have cooled on Kyler Murray over the last couple of weeks as his price rose to over $30 and he had a tough stretch in the schedule. That ends this week as the Buccaneers are the defense you want to see playing opposite your fantasy quarterback.
Murray is coming off one of his more efficient weeks vs. a very good 49ers defense and if he can carry that momentum into this matchup he should see a big spike in production.
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 23.9 Opp Score | $21
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a pure salary-saving play if you want to try to jam in the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas. He’s more than capable of hitting value, but he doesn’t have much of a ceiling as the Dolphins are on the road and come into this game implied for only 16.8 points. He has eclipsed 20 expected points in two of his three starts, however, which gives him a safer floor than most quarterbacks in this price range (there aren’t many).
Alvin Kamara | 19.6 Opp Score | $30
Alvin Kamara is back, and he gets one of the best possible matchups right off the bat. I’m seeing some hesitation to lock Kamara in around the industry due to Latavius Murray‘s recent play, but there are plenty of fantasy points to go around as the Saints are implied for a slate high 32 points. Kamara isn’t priced up so his floor is more palatable this week and we obviously know his ceiling is sky high even on a half-point per reception site.
Ronald Jones | 15.9 Opp Score | $15
If there were any week where Ronald Jones would finally hit big, this would be the week. The game script sets up nicely for Jones as the Buccaneers are 4.5-point favorites at home in a game with a 51.5-point total.
He’s coming off a week where he saw his highest snap share at 53 percent and is facing a defense that has been giving up points on the ground in recent weeks. The cherry on top is that this is the slate’s fastest-paced game with an average 24.9 seconds per play run between the two offenses.
Christian Kirk | 16.8 Opp Score | $16
The positive regression is refusing to hit for Christian Kirk, but if there’s a week for it to hit it’s against a Buccaneers secondary that has allowed 50-plus expected points to opposing wide receiver groups in two of its last five games. At $16, you’re paying a small price for what could be a huge ceiling game.
D.J. Moore/Curtis Samuel | 14.4/14.4 Opp Score | $16/$15
It’s a tougher matchup for D.J. Moore this week, but he gets plenty of short targets that he is always playable under $20. I want to focus on Curtis Samuel, however, who currently ranks fifth overall in air yards and has yet to eclipse 100 yards receiving.
The Packers have been giving up bigger games to wide receivers recently and it would not surprise me to see either Moore or Samuel (or both) pop for a big game.
DeVante Parker | 16.8 Opp Score | $13
Much like his quarterback, DeVante Parker is a pure salary-saving play. He’s near minimum price and is projected for a very solid opportunity score. You won’t find a much safer points-per-dollar play on the slate.
Gerald Everett | 14.4 Opp Score | $14
The price hasn’t yet caught up to Gerald Everett so I’ll go back to the well with him. Brandin Cooks’ injury opens up some opportunity in this offense and Everett’s role in the intermediate area will be important as Jared Goff stands to face constant pressure from the Steelers pass rush. The Steelers typically struggle with tight ends and slot receivers and that makes Everett a great DFS option.
Here’s what the DFS Optimizer spit out after locking in some of the plays above:
Good luck this week!