The Fantasy Football Ghost has scored big for us all season long, let’s see what he has in store for Week 10!
Just as I had hoped last week, Week 9 delivered in a big way, building on the success we saw in Week 8. Last week the plays of Matthew Stafford (3.2 times value), Dalvin Cook (1.51 times value), Tyler Lockett (a whopping 4.49 times value!), and Hunter Henry (1.86 times value) brought us an average of 2.78 times value on the week. Ironically, our big pay up play of Dalvin Cook actually yielded the worst return as he only managed to accumulate 13.6 point on the day. The big surprise though had to be Tyler Lockett who obliterated Tampa Bay to the tune 33.7 points and posted the best wide receiver score of Week 9. It’s going to be tough to top that performance but let’s see what kind of values we can find in Week 10!
To measure the success of the players I recommend to our RotoViz readers, I will review the players I recommended the prior week, determining their value multiplier. I will then calculate the average multiplier across the recommended players to give me a barometer of success for that week. My stated goal is to produce an average greater than 2.5 times value. If I can manage to surpass that goal, I will consider the week a success. If I fall short of that goal, obviously, the week would be considered unsuccessful.
You can find much of the data presented in this piece in the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer and Game Level Similarity Projections. I also want to encourage readers to check out the RotoViz NFL Lineup Optimizer so that everyone can squeeze the most value out of their lineups each week.
FanDuel NFL Cash Plays for Week 10
Quarterback: Jameis Winston ($7,900)
Fresh off two straight weeks of 20-plus point performances, Jameis Winston is poised to bag the hat trick when he faces off against the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the third-most PPR points to opposing quarterbacks over the past five games while also allowing the fourth-most fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). The Cardinals have allowed the second-highest quarterback rating (QBR) over that span with an average rating of 118.3. Digging a bit deeper, Arizona has allowed the fifth-most passing yards and the leagues highest allowed completion rate with 75% of all passes thrown by opposing quarterbacks ending up in the hands of their intended receiver. Even touching this percentage would be a new high-water mark for Winston who hasn’t completed more that 68% of his passes in any game this year. Beyond just completing passes, Winston has a huge opportunity to pile up points through the air in the form of passing touchdowns. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 2.7 passing touchdowns per game this season, the second-most allowed in the NFL. Given his price point and opportunity this week, I feel comfortable slotting Winston into a majority of my Week 10 FanDuel cash line ups due in large part to the Fantasy Streaming App ranking this matchup as the seventh-best for a quarterback this week.
Running Back: Derrick Henry ($7,000)
A huge $2,000 drop in price over last week’s play, Dalvin Cook, the $7,000 priced Derrick Henry is oozing value this week. Henry’s opponent, Kansas City, has been quite exploitable on the ground this season. Over the past five games, the Chiefs have allowed the second-most PPR points to opposing running backs. Opponents have clearly keyed in on this weakness as Kansas City has allowed the third-most rushing attempts over that span with an average total of 27 attempts allowed per game. This has resulted in the eighth-most rushing yards allowed to the position over the past five games with 109.6 yards surrendered.
However, running backs have found a significant bump in their fantasy scoring potential by racking up yards through the air as well. The Chiefs are allowing the sixth-most receptions to the position over that span with 6.6 receptions allowed on average, but here’s the kicker, those receptions have resulted in an average of 83.4 receiving yards per game, the most allowed to running back in the entire league. Fresh off a two-touchdown performance against Carolina, with one touchdown on the ground and one through the air it should be noted, Henry’s opponent could allow him to capture lightning in a bottle with a repeat of that performance.
Wide Receiver: Mike Evans ($8,600)
Mike Evans is the second-highest priced wide receiver this week but a stack with him and Winston would put some significant points on the board for us in FanDuel cash games. Much of what I’m about to say could also go for Evans’ teammate, Chris Godwin, who is the third-highest priced wide receiver on the slate at just $400 less, so pick your poison. Tampa Bay will be facing an Arizona defense that is allowing the third-most PPR points to opposing wide receivers with an average of 42.8 points allowed per game.
This could be highly exploitable for Evans who has surpassed the 30-point mark over each of the past two games. The Cardinals have also allowed the second-most receptions to the position over the past five games. Those receptions have also resulted in the eighth-most receiving yards allowed to opposing wide receivers. This matchup perfectly positions Evans to post that third consecutive 30-point game, I mean just look at how likely the Game Level Similarity Projection app believes Evans will have a phenomenal day!
Tight End: Greg Olsen ($5,100)
The last time I recommended Greg Olsen he had the best game of his season with a 22.5-point outing back in Week 3. Here we are in Week 10 and Olsen has yet to break the double-digit mark since that game. Not only is he due, but his matchup against Green Bay could easily allow him to break that double-digit barrier once again. The Packers have allowed the seventh-most receptions to opposing tight ends over the past five games with an average of six receptions allowed per game. Olsen hasn’t notched six receptions since that fateful Week 3.
Green Bay has also allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to the position over that span, averaging 75.4 yards per game. Finally, the way opponents have capitalized on the Packers’ weakness is by airing it out to their tight ends with Green Bay allowing the league’s most air yards to the position. Here’s your chance Mr. Olsen — I have faith in you!
With the weeks now heading into double-digit territory, it’s more important than ever for us to squeeze as much value out of every week as we can before the playoff are upon us. With Tyler Lockett getting us over 30 points last week, we might just see two consecutive weeks of such a performance from the wide receiver position if Mike Evans can pull off another 30-plus-point game. Let’s cross our fingers! As always, good luck to everyone, and feel free to both reach out to me and follow me on Twitter at @TheFFGhost. I’ll do my best to answer any and all questions you may have!