Who are the best plays for the Week 14 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1
DSF Week 14 Primetime Slate
|Home||Away||Spread||Favorite Implied||Underdog Implied||Vegas Total|
|Los Angeles Rams||Seattle Seahawks||PK||23.25||23.25||45|
|Philadelphia Eagles||New York Giants||PHI -9.5||27.75||18.25||49.5|
DFS Week 14 Primetime Slate theory thoughts:
- The QB position essentially boils down to chalk (Russell Wilson or Carson Wentz) or contrarian (Jared Goff or Eli Manning). Given the plethora of stacking options, what you choose to do at the QB position will likely have a huge influence on the rest of your roster.
- The WR position isn’t as cut-and-dry as it often is on these short slates. There are a handful of good options, a few interesting contrarian options, and a few interesting total punt plays. But there is no trio of “obvious” choices.
Chalk: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
The chalk choice at QB on this slate comes down to Wilson versus Carson Wentz, and I think it’s a close, tough choice to make. I’m fine with either, but if forced to choose, give me Wilson for two reasons: 1) His slate-busting upside is unrivaled by any of the other QBs on this slate and 2) The Seahawks game is far more likely to stay competitive for all four quarters, while Wentz could do nothing but hand the ball of the entire second half.
Contrarian: Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
The contrarian options are Goff and Eli Manning. Hats off to you if you roll with Eli. Goff is the objectively better play at home against a Seahawks defense that ranks bottom 12 in fantasy points allowed to QBs over their last five contests. Goff is also fresh off a 400-yard passing performance.
Chalk: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Barkley has been miserable lately, and he’s simply the volume-based chalk by default with just two games to choose from. The silver lining in this contest is that Barkley could rack up a lot of receptions with the Giants expected to be trailing big. Here’s what I wrote about Barkley in my 15 Stats to Know For DFS in Week 14 piece:
The Giants have an 18.25 implied total, the second-lowest of Barkley’s young career. He has also never been such a big underdog before (-9.5). Barkley has finished as the fantasy RB19 or worse in four straight games, and this matchup isn’t looking rosy for him, either. He could, however, rack up some points in full PPR formats (like DraftKings).
Contrarian: Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
The general public may not be fully up to speed on the fact that Penny is now up there with Chris Carson in terms of fantasy relevancy in Seattle — at least in PPR formats. Penny, who is considerably cheaper than Carson on this slate, has back-to-back games with over 20 DraftKings points.
He has three total TDs over his last two games and has topped 100 yards from scrimmage in both games. Over these two games, he has handled 28% of Seattle’s offensive opportunities, just behind Carson’s 30% rate.
Chalk: Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia Eagles
Despite not being the most expensive WR on the slate, Jeffery is my favorite target. He saw an absurd 16 targets last week, representing his upside ceiling. He will roast the Giants secondary, which has allowed the third-most fantasy points and most FPOE2 to opposing WRs over their last five games.
Contrarian: Darius Slayton, New York Giants
Slayton has never caught a pass from Manning, but the coaching staff says he’ll remain just as big of a part of the offense despite the QB change and the fact that both Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate will be healthy for the contest. In other words: Slayton has a lot working against him this week (hence the contrarian name). But working in Slayton’s favor is the coachspeak and the fact the Eagles have allowed the 12th-most air yards to opposing WRs over their last five games.
Contrarian: Brandin Cooks, Los Angeles Rams
Cooks has fallen far, with just four catches for 55 yards in his last two games. But his DFS price has also fallen precipitously, making him easy to fit into lineups and a potential big return-on-salary hit should he connect deep with Goff.
Chalk: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
Duh. After a ho-hum start to the season, Ertz has smashed in three of his last four games, topping 11 targets and 90 yards from Weeks 9-12 (Week 10 bye).
Contrarian: Kaden Smith, New York Giants
Smith has the unknown factor with Eli Manning under center for the Giants — a QB he hasn’t played with — but with Evan Engram still sidelined, Smith will get another chance to shine. He has been solid over the last two weeks, posting lines of 6-5-17-1 and 8-6-70-0, respectively.
Image Credit: Gavin Baker/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Zach Ertz.
- An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit of game theory, which can be half the fun. (back)
- Fantasy points over expectation. (back)