As wide receivers take the field for testing and drills on Thursday, it’s time for the 2020 NFL Combine preview. Shawn Siegele uses the RotoViz tools to help you locate the top comps, Dominator Ratings, and Freak Scores for a loaded rookie class.
We’ll be awash in information over the next several days. To help make sense of the beautiful madness, I’ve put together a combine preview that provides:
- A range of Freak Score results.
- Career Dominator Ratings.
- The top player comp from the Box Score Scout.
You’ll be inundated with metrics this weekend, but the Freak Score is specifically targeted at a position where height matters. Our scaled height/weight/speed metric helps you understand how a receiver’s physicality translates to the NFL, especially as it relates to touchdown production.
Recent Freak Score stars have outperformed draft position for their owners. D.K. Metcalf’s 92 was one of the best scores ever for anyone not named Calvin Johnson, and he went on to a WR29 finish as a rookie. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, D.J. Chark, and Allen Lazard posted the three best scores in 2018. Chark emerged as a lethal threat in 2019, while Lazard climbed back from UDFA obscurity. Even the disappointing MVS provided dynasty owners with an opportunity to flip at a serious profit.
In this exercise, I’ve provided the Freak Score results for each receiver at three different 40-yard-dash times: 4.3, 4.45, and 4.6. Once the results are in, you can use the Freak Score tool to generate the official result.
The Dominator Rating is the average of a receiver’s yardage share and TD share. It’s one of several stats that help predict NFL performance, and market share numbers are especially valuable in finding players who will outperform draft slot. As a quick snapshot, I’ve provided the career DR, but the Box Score Scout breaks down a player’s yardage and receiving share for each individual season.
To highlight the star producers, I’ve sorted the players by Dominator Rating.
For a deep dive on WR production, our Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide has Travis May’s Adjusted Production Index, my look at the value of Breakout Age, and BOA info for all of the rookies. You can also find breakout ages in the Box Score Scout.
Mike Beers continues to upgrade the BSS. We’ll have the official numbers after the Combine, but Mike has added the ability to input your own numbers for size and speed. You can also experiment with different draft positions.
Want to know the WR with the most similar collegiate production at a given size and draft slot? In this experiment, I’ve used the official combine weights along with projected draft position and our advanced stats to generate comps for each player. The top comp is listed in the table below.
In such a loaded class, it’s no surprise that it includes WRs with comps like Odell Beckham, Sammy Watkins, and DeAndre Hopkins. But it’s not all roses, a few red flags appear as well.
2020 Wide Receiver Combine Preview
|Player||Height||Weight||Freak 4.3||Freak 4.45||Freak 4.6||Career DR||Top Comp|
|Tyler Johnson||6-1 3/8"||206||76||61||45||0.44||Marvin McNutt|
|Antonio Gandy-Golden||6-4"||223||93||78||62||0.40||Courtland Sutton|
|Denzel Mims||6-2 7/8"||207||81||66||50||0.33||James Washington|
|Darnell Mooney||5-10 1/8"||176||51||35||20||0.33||Darius Johnson|
|Isaiah Hodgins||6-3 5/8"||210||85||70||54||0.32||Jordan Lasley|
|Brandon Aiyuk||5-11 5/8"||205||74||58||42||0.31||Jeremy Maclin|
|Quintez Cephus||6-0 7/8"||202||74||58||42||0.30||Pharoh Cooper|
|James Proche||5-10 5/8"||201||69||53||38||0.30||Ryan Broyles|
|Jalen Reagor||5-10 5/8"||206||72||56||41||0.30||Christian Kirk|
|Quez Watkins||6-0 1/8"||185||61||45||30||0.30||Demarcus Ayers|
|Kalija Lipscomb||5-11 7/8"||207||75||59||43||0.29||Nelson Spruce|
|Bryan Edwards||6-2 6/8"||212||84||69||53||0.28||Nick Toon|
|KJ Hamler||5-8 5/8"||178||50||34||19||0.28||Randall Cobb|
|Justin Jefferson||6-1 2/8"||202||74||58||42||0.28||DeAndre Hopkins|
|Cody White||6-3 3/8"||217||88||72||56||0.28||Kelvin Harmon|
|Marquez Callaway||6-1 2/8"||205||76||60||44||0.27||Ryan Swope|
|Laviska Shenault Jr.||6-0 5/8"||227||90||74||58||0.27||A.J. Brown|
|Tee Higgins||6-3 5/8"||216||89||73||58||0.26||Laquon Treadwell|
|Trishton Jackson||6-0 6/8"||197||71||55||39||0.26||Jeremy Ebert|
|CeeDee Lamb||6-1 5/8"||198||73||58||42||0.26||Sammy Watkins|
|Michael Pittman||6-4"||223||93||78||62||0.26||Brandon LaFell|
|Quartney Davis||6-1 2/8"||201||73||57||42||0.25||Geronimo Allison|
|John Hightower||6-1 4/8"||189||67||51||35||0.25||Geronimo Allison|
|Gabriel Davis||6-2"||216||85||69||53||0.24||Breshad Perriman|
|Jerry Jeudy||6-1"||193||68||52||37||0.24||Odell Beckham|
|Donovan Peoples-Jones||6-1 5/8"||212||82||67||51||0.23||Deon Cain|
|Omar Bayless||6-0 6/8"||212||80||64||49||0.22||Quincy Enunwa|
|Lynn Bowden||5-10 5/8"||204||71||55||39||0.22||Demarcus Robinson|
|Chase Claypool||6-4 2/8"||238||103||87||72||0.22||Kerry Meier|
|Collin Johnson||6-5 5/8"||222||97||81||66||0.22||Geremy Davis|
|Jauan Jennings||6-3 1/8"||215||86||71||55||0.22||Cobi Hamilton|
|Lawrence Cager||6-4 6/8"||220||94||78||62||0.20||Deondre Douglas|
|Devin Duvernay||5-10 4/8"||200||67||51||36||0.20||Denarius Moore|
|K.J. Osborn||5-11 4/8"||203||71||56||40||0.19||Taylor Stockemer|
|Aaron Fuller||5-10 6/8"||188||61||45||29||0.18||James Quick|
|Henry Ruggs III||5-11"||188||61||45||29||0.18||Curtis Samuel|
|Freddie Swain||6-0 2/8"||197||68||53||37||0.18||Stacy Coley|
|Joe Reed||6-0 4/8"||224||87||71||55||0.17||Bug Howard|
|Darrell Stewart||6-0 2/8"||212||78||62||47||0.17||Aaron Burbridge|
|Van Jefferson||6-1 4/8"||200||74||58||42||0.16||Bryce Treggs|
|Jeff Thomas||5-8 7/8"||170||45||29||14||0.16||Brian Hernandez|
|Binjimen Victor||6-3 6/8"||198||76||60||44||0.16||Bryce Bobo|
|K.J. Hill||5-11 7/8"||196||68||52||37||0.15||Jeremy Kerley|
|Juwan Johnson||6-4"||230||98||82||66||0.14||Dylan Cantrell|
|Tyrie Cleveland||6-2 3/8"||209||80||65||49||0.13||Tyler Grisham|
|Chris Finke||5-9 4/8"||186||56||41||25||0.13||Macgarrett Kings Jr.|
|Kendrick Rogers||6-4 2/8"||208||84||68||53||0.13||Bradon Godfrey|
|Dezmon Patmon||6-3 6/8"||225||95||79||63||0.12||Darreus Rogers|
|Tony Brown||6-0 6/8"||198||71||56||40||0.10||Keshawn Martin|
|Austin Mack||6-1 4/8"||208||79||63||47||0.09||Desmond White|
|Isaiah Coulter||6-1 7/8"||198||73||58||42|
|Antonio Gibson||6-0 3/8"||228||88||72||57|
|Aaron Parker||6-1 5/8"||209||80||65||49|
We’ll check in with the results after the combine, including winners and losers and new projections.
If you liked the Combine Preview, you’ll love a few of our other resources.
- Travis May just completed his Top 100 Rookie Rankings, a five-part series from one of the industry’s leading devy gurus. For IDP fans, his rankings include the 34 best fantasy defenders as well.
- In the Wrong Read No. 60, Blair Andrews asks What WR Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? He answers the question with a correlation matrix looking at advanced stats, NFL draft position, and future production.
- The newly updated RB Prospect Lab allows you to create a pre- or post-draft model. The Lab Lite includes a simpler version that’s easier on mobile. I’ve used the Lab to rank the elite prospects, finding a superstar, a sleeper, and a red flag.
- Follow along in our Prospect Series. Start with a superstar like Jerry Jeudy, jump to a potential riser like Antonio Gandy-Golden, but don’t forget sleepers like Isaiah Hodgins.
- And don’t forget the Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide. In addition to the WR content mentioned above, Blair Andrews discusses an RB hack that will help you land the top sleepers at the position. The Rookie Guide includes new volumes after the combine and the NFL Draft, including mock draft analysis galore from Curtis Patrick.