revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies – Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We’re back to another multi-course rotation this week. It’s the famous Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and you are likely familiar with the courses. If you aren’t familiar, check out last year’s preview and trends article.

Lineup Review

Before we jump into this week’s tourney, I wanted to take a quick minute to breakdown my single-entry lineup from last week.1 

As you can see, one of the cash locks from this week missed the cut. Viktor Hovland ended up missing the cut by a stroke. He started off with a 1-under 70 in Round 1 and then was looking like a good bet to make the cut but found trouble on the front nine. He then had a 9-foot birdie putt on 17 that would’ve put him on the number to make the cut and he left it 1 inch from the hole. That left him with 25.5 DK points on the week and sunk plenty of lineups. 

A couple of low-owned plays paid off nicely in the early afternoon before Webb Simpsonour cover boy — clipped Tony Finau in a playoff to hoist the trophy on Sunday. 

Course Rotation

Because there are three courses, that means we’re back to a Saturday cut this week.2 

Expected Birdies - Pebble Beach Pro-Am

NameSalaryWeighted BOB ScorePebbleSpyglassMonterey
Dustin Johnson1160085.3878087
Patrick Cantlay1090084.8848784
Paul Casey1050083.0838383
Jason Day1030083.5857985
Brandt Snedeker1010085.3868386
Matt Kuchar990083.3867586
Matthew Fitzpatrick970078.0807280
Phil Mickelson950084.5858385
Branden Grace930077.3768176
Graeme McDowell920076.8787378
Viktor Hovland910079.5807880
Jordan Spieth900087.3898289
Daniel Berger890081.0808480
Cameron Champ880076.3738673
Alex Noren870074.5747674
Russell Knox860072.3775877
Kevin Kisner850078.3787978
Rafa Cabrera Bello840078.3797679
Max Homa830077.5787678
Chez Reavie820077.0787478
Adam Hadwin810084.5838983
Kurt Kitayama800075.5758171
Tom Hoge790080.0817781
J.B. Holmes790076.5787278
Scott Piercy780080.8827782
Jim Furyk780078.3768576
Vaughn Taylor770082.0847684
Kevin Na770081.0827882
Lucas Glover760079.0788278
Scott Stallings760076.8758275
Nate Lashley750083.8848384
Pat Perez750083.0818981
Andrew Landry740080.0788678
Patrick Rodgers740076.0748274
Kevin Streelman740071.0785078
Maverick McNealy730095.010080100
Cameron Davis730081.3827982
Nick Watney730080.8827782
Adam Long730079.3788378
Sung Kang730075.3767376
Jimmy Walker720085.5819981
Aaron Wise720085.5868486
Charley Hoffman720085.0829482
Xinjun Zhang720083.0838383
Harry Higgs720082.8838283
Lanto Griffin720080.3808180
Matthew NeSmith710086.3897889
Wyndham Clark710084.5829282
Joel Dahmen710081.5828082
Chesson Hadley710080.8827782
Beau Hossler710080.3808180
Mark Hubbard710078.5788078
Nick Taylor700080.5798579
Matt Jones700078.3787978
Cameron Tringale700078.3797679
Keith Mitchell700077.8778077
Harold Varner III700077.5768276
Henrik Norlander700075.8796679
Kiradech Aphibarnrat690080.0798379
Charl Schwartzel690079.8817681
Brian Gay690078.0749074
James Hahn690078.0768476
Brandon Wu690076.3758075
Brian Stuard690076.0748274
Ted Potter Jr.690074.0787664
Aaron Baddeley680080.5827682
Chase Seiffert680080.3817881
Jason Dufner680079.5807880
D.J. Trahan680077.8739273
J.J. Spaun680077.0797179
Kevin Chappell680076.5777577
Sean O'Hair680076.0767676
Doc Redman670090.0947894
Adam Schenk670079.5807880
Bill Haas670078.3778277
Sebastian Cappelen670077.8787778
Brandon Hagy670076.3738673
Zac Blair670075.8757875
Michael Thompson670066.5763876
Steve Stricker660087.8917891
Troy Merritt660083.5809480
Ben Martin660082.0828282
Peter Uihlein660077.5777977
David Hearn660076.5787278
Tim Wilkinson660075.0757575
Brice Garnett660074.5747674
Tyler McCumber660068.8793879
Hank Lebioda650085.0887688
Stewart Cink650081.0808480
Ryan Armour650080.3817881
Scott Brown650079.0788278
Tyler Duncan650078.8768776
Luke Donald650074.5805880
Mark Anderson650074.0747474
Bo Hoag650069.8697269
David Lingmerth640085.08010080
Chris Kirk640083.0848084
Si Woo Kim640080.0798379
Austin Cook640079.5798179
Richy Werenski640078.3778277
Padraig Harrington640077.5748874
Chris Stroud640077.3787578
Seamus Power640076.5767876
Roberto Castro640075.8777277
Anirban Lahiri630082.3808980
Josh Teater630081.0798779
Peter Malnati630079.0807680
K.J. Choi630077.8768376
Ricky Barnes630076.5777577
Kramer Hickok630075.3738273
Rob Oppenheim630073.8747374
Joseph Bramlett630062.0703870
Justin Suh630058.5566458
Fabian Gomez620079.8788578
Matt Every620079.5807880
Sam Saunders620079.5836983
Kyoung-Hoon Lee620078.8797879
Alex Cejka620077.3748774
Jim Herman620076.8767976
Wes Roach620076.5767876
Doug Ghim620076.5767876
Robert Streb620076.5777577
Ryan Brehm620074.8728372
Arjun Atwal620073.8727972
Chris Baker620057.5517751
Zack Sucher610080.8837483
Ben Taylor610080.3817881
Dominic Bozzelli610080.0817781
Mackenzie Hughes610079.5807880
Rhein Gibson610078.3768576
Chad Campbell610078.3778277
Greg Chalmers610077.3777877
John Merrick610076.5777577
Scott Harrington610076.3806580
Michael Gellerman610073.5737573
Rod Pampling610073.0717971
Isaiah Salinda610071.5717371
Satoshi Kodaira610070.0658565
Johnson Wagner610065.8753875
Bo Van Pelt600085.8829782
Kristoffer Ventura600083.0799579
Jonathan Byrd600081.0808480
John Senden600080.5798579
Hunter Mahan600079.5788478
Kevin Stadler600079.3778677
Robert Garrigus600079.0807680
Michael Gligic600077.3768176
Vincent Whaley600076.8777677
D.A. Points600075.0747874
David Duval600075.0747874
George McNeill600074.8786578
Nelson Ledesma600071.5678567
Martin Trainer600065.8627762
Scott De Borba600057.0516858
Patrick Martin600055.0555753
Smylie Kaufman600040.3413841

Image Credit: Ben Warden/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Dustin Johnson.

  1. I typically do this on the solo pod each week, but I’m in the middle of moving and don’t have internet until Tuesday.  (back)
  2. That also means that there should be an edge in showdown contests if you are paying attention and stacking your lineups.  (back)

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

PGA DFS: Waste Management Phoenix Open – Expected Birdies

We are back at the biggest party in golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The golfers will be tasked with taming TPC Scottsdale. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 course that plays about 7,260 yards. The course features 7,000-plus square foot greens which run about 12 feet on the

Read More

PGA DFS: Webb Simpson is Ready to Party at the WMPO

We are back at the biggest party in golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The golfers will be tasked with taming TPC Scottsdale. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 course that plays about 7,260 yards. The course features 7,000-plus square foot greens which run about 12 feet on the

Read More

PGA DFS: Backtesting the Power Ranking Model

It’s been a little over six months since the first iteration of the Power Ranking model was released. Throughout the course of the season last year, there were some tweaks made here and there but I’ve overhauled it in the “offseason.”1 I wanted to take a look at how the

Read More

PGA DFS: Genesis Invitational – Expected Birdies

We’re heading to Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational this week. There are few fields in golf outside of the majors that boast a field like this. That means there is plenty of money to go around on DraftKings. If you’re interested in a deeper, statistical dive you can head

Read More

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.