PGA DFS: Patrick Cantlay is Worth the Price of Admission at Pebble Beach
Image Credit: Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Patrick Cantlay.

The Tour turns its attention towards Pebble Beach for the week. As I mentioned in yesterday’s article, we’re looking at a three-course rotation again this week. That means plenty of showdown strategy and a Saturday cut is on tap for this weekend. 

Finish Position Category Average DK Score
Top 25 84.2
26 – 50 67.3
51 – 75 55.5
Missed Cut 37.5

Buy or Sell

I’m going to sell Dustin Johnson ($11,600) for a couple of reasons. The main one is because fading the most expensive golfer on a slate is almost always in play. DJ has plenty of win equity, but is it enough to pay off $11,600? He likely will come in with plenty of ownership. He actually hasn’t overpowered shorter courses in the way that you might think. Johnson’s a class-golfer1 but if I’m paying for a highly owned, expensive golfer, I want no question marks. He’s a soft sell for me. 

I teased the simulator in last week’s article, and it’s eking closer to being released. Brandt Snedeker ($10,100) is one of the stars of this week’s simulator results. He has the fifth-most wins and the eighth-most top fives in the sim. Snedeker has been all over the map with a T3 finish a couple of weeks ago and then an MC last week in Phoenix. He comes in with a 92 PRK score which puts him in very solid company, historically. Golfers in that group finish in the top five about 21% of the time.

Over/Under

Viktor Hovland ($9,100) over/under 22.5 

Hovland disappointed us last week with a missed cut. It wasn’t an ejection, though. He had a shot at playing the weekend but he missed a birdie putt on 17 to seal the deal on his missed cut. I’m going back to the well with Hovland and going under on this number. The simulator has him finishing in the top 20 51.4% of the time. Historically, golfers that come into an event with a PRK Score of 90 – 100 have finished in the top 20 48.8% of the time.

Mid-Range Matchup

Matt Kuchar ($9,900) vs Phil Mickelson ($9,500)

This is a matchup that caught my eye as I was going through each chunk of salary. Anyone who’s been following golf closely over the past year has seen a steep drop off in Mickelson’s form. When he won this event last year, he was up to 17th in the OWGR and now has fallen down to 72nd.2 Phil is a fan favorite, but his PRK Score of 57 doesn’t leave much room for optimism. All you need is a coin to figure out if golfers between 50 and 60 in the PRK Score will make the cut, historically.

Kuchar, on the other hand, has an 84 from the PRK and has played well lately. He gained strokes in every category outside of putting last week. Kuchar is eighth in the field in SG: Approach over the past 100 rounds. 

I put Mickelson and Kuchar into the simulator to see how they’d fare against each other. Kuchar won about 62% of their head-to-head matchups.

GPP Plays

Patrick Cantlay ($10,900) comes in with the best PRK Score of the week. In terms of raw score, he’s about 0.2 strokes per round better than the next highest golfer. The simulator and the base rate of his PRK Score point to a top-five finish more than 20% of the time. The ownership in the $10,000 range will be interesting this week. With so many popular options, it’s easy to see a scenario where Cantlay goes slightly under-owned relative to his upside. Even if he trends towards being a bit higher owned, I’ll be willing to eat some of the chalk when it comes to the 27-year-old rising star. 

If it wasn’t for a poor around the green performance, we’d likely be talking about Matthew NeSmith ($7,100) quite a bit more this week. He’s now made five straight cuts and has climbed up into the 90s for PRK Score heading into Pebble Beach. Golfers in that range of PRK Score have finished in the top 20 nearly 49% of the time, which is a very acceptable outcome from a golfer with NeSmith’s price. He’ll likely go under-owned because of other popular plays in his range. 

Cash Locks

  • Matthew NeSmith ($7,100)
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,700)

Power Ranking Model & Ownership Projections - Pebble Beach

NameDK SalaryPRK ScoreOwnership %
Dustin Johnson1160079.1327.20
Patrick Cantlay1090010020.50
Paul Casey1050091.2921.50
Jason Day1030076.0419.00
Brandt Snedeker1010092.3818.50
Matt Kuchar990084.2112.21
Matthew Fitzpatrick970088.9313.00
Phil Mickelson950057.5313.50
Branden Grace930072.614.92
Graeme McDowell920082.2113.93
Viktor Hovland910096.5513.00
Jordan Spieth900075.689.00
Daniel Berger890084.7511.33
Cameron Champ880084.3910.78
Alex Noren870088.5713.93
Russell Knox860090.0220.50
Kevin Kisner850082.0310.88
Rafa Cabrera Bello840072.786.86
Max Homa830080.5814.55
Chez Reavie820074.238.17
Adam Hadwin810087.8417.35
Kurt Kitayama800051.727.24
Tom Hoge790092.7414.65
J.B. Holmes790079.858.92
Scott Piercy780085.1218.50
Jim Furyk780079.3112.50
Vaughn Taylor770083.489.84
Kevin Na770081.679.51
Lucas Glover760083.856.38
Scott Stallings760075.148.33
Pat Perez750080.043.81
Nate Lashley750076.955.01
Patrick Rodgers740078.2215.50
Kevin Streelman740078.229.06
Andrew Landry740076.772.44
Sung Kang730072.415.83
Adam Long730082.948.18
Maverick McNealy730082.217.14
Nick Watney730080.044.16
Cameron Davis730078.041.56
Xinjun Zhang720073.53.48
Harry Higgs720094.014.95
Lanto Griffin720080.044.51
Aaron Wise720075.864.83
Charley Hoffman720075.321.75
Jimmy Walker720071.879.25
Matthew NeSmith710091.475.12
Joel Dahmen710085.841.48
Mark Hubbard710080.044.95
Wyndham Clark710071.512.64
Chesson Hadley710070.782.00
Beau Hossler710067.71.30
Harold Varner III700072.411.84
Henrik Norlander700080.220.85
Cameron Tringale700077.689.11
Nick Taylor700076.594.00
Matt Jones700068.61.39
Keith Mitchell700060.441.39
Ted Potter Jr.690051.721.65
Brian Stuard690074.593.50
James Hahn690070.242.29
Brian Gay690069.153.72
Charl Schwartzel690064.070.77
Kiradech Aphibarnrat690063.882.00
Brandon Wu690051.724.49
D.J. Trahan680074.052.36
Chase Seiffert680071.691.48
Jason Dufner680070.051.29
Aaron Baddeley680069.871.66
J.J. Spaun680065.883.61
Kevin Chappell680064.250.74
Sean O'Hair680061.711.19
Adam Schenk670082.211.31
Doc Redman670081.139.16
Sebastian Cappelen670076.951.63
Zac Blair670071.871.31
Michael Thompson670070.60.77
Brandon Hagy670070.420.75
Bill Haas670062.430.72
David Hearn660077.50.23
Brice Garnett660077.310.23
Steve Stricker660076.231.41
Tim Wilkinson660075.681.04
Tyler McCumber660075.321.98
Ben Martin660073.50.12
Troy Merritt660071.690.39
Peter Uihlein660058.80.18
Mark Anderson650073.871.04
Hank Lebioda650073.50.27
Bo Hoag650085.480.28
Stewart Cink650071.140.33
Ryan Armour650070.420.93
Tyler Duncan650067.881.04
Luke Donald650060.980.20
Scott Brown650046.640.14
Richy Werenski640068.780.18
David Lingmerth640065.70.08
Chris Kirk640065.70.11
Chris Stroud640064.070.18
Seamus Power640062.250.18
Roberto Castro640060.980.64
Austin Cook640060.620.14
Padraig Harrington640054.450.12
Si Woo Kim640038.481.10
Josh Teater630074.590.21
Peter Malnati630068.780.86
Rob Oppenheim630065.880.16
Ricky Barnes630064.070.14
Kramer Hickok630062.070.19
Joseph Bramlett630059.530.63
Anirban Lahiri630055.720.09
K.J. Choi630055.540.10
Justin Suh630051.720.12
Alex Cejka620073.680.14
Chris Baker620068.60.08
Kyoung-Hoon Lee620068.420.11
Wes Roach620066.970.13
Fabian Gomez620066.240.17
Doug Ghim620062.610.16
Ryan Brehm620062.610.19
Matt Every620058.440.11
Sam Saunders620057.530.07
Robert Streb620053.90.15
Arjun Atwal620051.540.11
Jim Herman620041.380.11
Ben Taylor610080.220.06
Johnson Wagner610070.240.16
Michael Gellerman610067.510.15
Chad Campbell610065.880.06
John Merrick610063.880.08
Zack Sucher610063.340.37
Rhein Gibson610063.340.06
Mackenzie Hughes610059.170.10
Rod Pampling610058.80.08
Dominic Bozzelli610053.720.06
Scott Harrington610052.090.17
Isaiah Salinda610051.720.08
Greg Chalmers610037.930.05
Satoshi Kodaira610034.30.14
Michael Gligic600069.150.05
Kristoffer Ventura600059.170.22
George McNeill600057.710.04
Nelson Ledesma600054.810.05
Jonathan Byrd600054.630.13
Scott De Borba600051.720.06
Patrick Martin600051.720.06
Vincent Whaley600051.720.05
Robert Garrigus600045.370.13
Bo Van Pelt600037.020.06
John Senden600036.660.06
Hunter Mahan600034.660.11
D.A. Points600034.480.06
Kevin Stadler600030.490.06
David Duval600013.430.06
Martin Trainer60009.620.05
Smylie Kaufman600000.06
Image Credit: Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Patrick Cantlay.
  1. duh  (back)
  2. Yes, the OWGR has some issues but it still shows his decline.  (back)
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