PGA DFS: Rory McIlroy is on Another Level Heading into the Genesis Invitational
Image Credit: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Rory McIlroy.

We’re heading back to Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational. This year’s field is one of the strongest non-major fields in recent memory with nine of the Top 10 OWGR making the trip. For a look at the Expected Birdies for this track, head over to yesterday’s article

Buy or Sell

Rory McIlroy ($11,600) is, without exaggeration, breaking the PRK Score this week. Last week, for example, we had eight different golfers at 90-plus in the model. Because of the gap between Rory and the rest of the field, there are only two golfers joining Rory with that distinction.1 He’s made 11 straight cuts. Over that span, he’s notched two wins and seven other top 10s. His worst finish was a T26 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. The most likely scenario, thanks to his price, is that he comes in even a bit under-owned relative to his chance of a top-five finish or a win. The simulator has Rory winning this event about 13.7% of the time. He’s an absolute buy for me and I’m actively seeing how far I can push my exposure to him.

We have another course history poster boy to chat about this week. Bubba Watson ($9,600) is a winner of this tournament a few times over at this point. He comes in with excellent form too. His last two starts have wound up as top-six finishes. If there’s one thing you need to know with Bubba … it’s that when he’s on, he’s on. 

Over/Under

Justin Rose ($8,500) – o/u 16.5 

I will take the over on Rose this week. This is one of the strongest fields we’ll see all year, and yes … Rose is technically still in the top 10, but I’m not impressed. He’s coming off of a missed cut at the Farmers and his best recent finishes have all come against weak fields. The simulator has Rose in the top 20 only about 29% of the time. His PRK score puts him in some brutal company too. Historically, golfers in the 60-70 range have missed the cut 46% of the time and have only hit the top 20 at a 19% clip.

Mid-Range Matchup

Adam Scott ($9,000) v Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300)

Even my head-to-head simulator is having a hard time with this decision. It’s basically neck-and-neck between these two golfers, but if we zoom out a bit to the PRK Score, maybe we’ll have better luck. Scott has a decent lead with an 88 compared to Matsuyama’s 81 in the PRK Score. They’re both in that same group between 80 and 90, but I’ll give the edge to Scott here, slightly. 

Cash Locks

Another two-for-two week with the cash locks means that we’re over 80% made cuts and approaching 65% top-25 finishes. 

This week’s cash locks are:

  • Collin Morikawa ($8,100)
  • Tony Finau ($9,100)

Model Results - Genesis Invitational

NameSalaryPRK ScoreOwn Proj
Rory McIlroy1160010017.7
Jon Rahm112008913.7
Justin Thomas110008618.1
Tiger Woods104008012.2
Dustin Johnson100007921.5
Patrick Cantlay98009220.2
Bubba Watson96007421.2
Brooks Koepka94008117.0
Hideki Matsuyama93008215.8
Xander Schauffele92008618.1
Tony Finau91009018.2
Adam Scott90008820.6
Jason Day8800786.4
Marc Leishman87008012.1
Patrick Reed86008112.2
Justin Rose85006518.2
Jordan Spieth8400687.8
Phil Mickelson8300626.5
Abraham Ancer82007613.7
Collin Morikawa81008419.2
Sungjae Im80007911.8
Bryson DeChambeau79007912.4
Paul Casey79007911.3
Sergio Garcia78005910.3
Matt Kuchar78007610.2
Matthew Fitzpatrick7700789.0
J.B. Holmes7700619.8
Kevin Na76006812.2
Ryan Moore7600754.4
Max Homa7500735.6
Charles Howell III7500746.4
Branden Grace7500592.2
Cameron Smith7500623.6
Scottie Scheffler7400807.7
Cameron Champ7400695.3
Brendon Todd7400732.5
Ryan Palmer7400703.2
Joaquin Niemann73007514.7
Alex Noren73007410.7
Keegan Bradley7300653.6
Rafa Cabrera Bello7300583.7
Nick Taylor7200822.6
Russell Knox7200792.2
Adam Hadwin7200683.0
Scott Piercy7200762.2
Jason Kokrak7100658.5
Danny Willett7100672.2
Matthew Wolff7100683.8
Chez Reavie7100671.0
Corey Conners7000678.5
Erik Van Rooyen7000426.1
Francesco Molinari7000516.5
Bud Cauley7000740.7
Jim Furyk7000692.5
J.T. Poston6900717.6
Matt Jones6900710.7
Rory Sabbatini6900671.1
Brian Harman6900761.3
Emiliano Grillo6900641.2
Carlos Ortiz68006811.9
Patrick Rodgers6800634.2
Jhonattan Vegas6800621.2
Andrew Putnam6800701.4
Lanto Griffin6800683.7
Nate Lashley6700660.6
Dylan Frittelli6700581.2
Aaron Wise6700631.1
Sung Kang6700511.7
Charley Hoffman6700641.6
Luke List6600655.8
Nick Watney6600650.9
Wyndham Clark6600652.1
Vaughn Taylor6600691.3
Denny McCarthy6600671.6
Martin Laird6500580.9
Joel Dahmen6500681.6
Pat Perez6500591.0
Sebastian Munoz6500651.6
James Hahn6500590.9
Cameron Tringale6500712.7
Danny Lee6400571.0
Scott Stallings6400580.3
Adam Schenk6400680.4
Michael Thompson6400510.4
Kiradech Aphibarnrat6400480.9
Kyle Stanley6400610.6
Peter Malnati6300650.8
Andrew Landry6300621.0
Adam Long6300700.5
Aaron Baddeley6300700.9
Talor Gooch6300663.2
Russell Henley6300550.4
Jason Dufner6300610.4
Kevin Chappell6300520.8
Sam Burns6200680.8
Bronson Burgoon6200680.4
Sam Ryder6200610.3
C.T. Pan6200640.4
Troy Merritt6200560.5
Jimmy Walker6200530.4
Harold Varner III6200602.1
Kevin Tway6200681.1
Tyler Duncan6100560.3
Matt Every6100630.3
Sepp Straka6100520.3
Brian Stuard6100540.3
Joseph Bramlett6100560.3
Si Woo Kim6100300.3
Brian Gay6100590.3
Steve Stricker6100630.3
Martin Trainer600000.3
Sean Yu600000.3
Jim Herman6000350.3
Kyoung-Hoon Lee6000570.3
Kyongjun Moon6000420.3
Roger Sloan6000560.3
Scott Brown6000390.3
Chris Stroud6000500.3
Ryan Armour6000510.3
J.J. Spaun6000480.3
Image Credit: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Rory McIlroy.
  1. Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau  (back)
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