RotoViz is continuing our look back on the 2019 rookies with a review of Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown. The speedy wideout ripped off 147 yards and two scores in Week 1, displaying a tantalizing ceiling that kept fantasy players’ interest. So what can we expect from Marquise Brown during the 2020 fantasy football season?
Marquise Brown’s Rookie Season
Per the NFL Stat Explorer, Brown ranked as a low-end WR4 for season-long stats, finishing as the WR46 in PPR points and the WR50 in points per game. He did miss a few games and was hobbled in others, but on the whole, Brown was a fingers-crossed flex play at best.
Highlights for Brown include his No. 14 rank among WRs in total TDs, and his No. 31 rank in FPOE1 per game. He was expected to produce the 67th-most PPG, but instead turned in the 50th-most. Not bad; not great, but not bad.
- The first thing that jumps off the page is Brown’s reliance on TDs. He was 59th in targets but 14th in TDs among WRs. That ratio will regress as Baltimore’s offense takes a probable step back in 2020.
- Brown ranked just 62nd in Air Yards among WRs. For a deep threat that exploded for 147 yards in Week 1, this was a surprising, and disappointing, figure to uncover.
Brown returned value on his preseason ADP, but there’s a risk he’ll be overdrafted in 2020. Keep in mind: He topped 50 yards in just two other games after popping off in Week 1.
Using the RotoViz Screener‘s Similarity Search, I found the closest rookie WR comps to Brown over the last two decades. Here are the results:
And here’s how these players fared in their second season, which could give you an idea on what to expect from Marquise Brown in 2020:
These comps are slightly better than expected. And it’s worth noting that T.Y. Hilton was Brown’s sixth-closest comp as a rookie (this study only shows the top five). So that’s obviously a huge plus, too.
- The Good: Christian Kirk made a solid leap in Year 2, averaging over 5 receptions and 50 yards per game despite playing with a rookie QB. Tyler Lockett had a down sophomore season, but he’s flirted with fantasy dominance at points of his career. Donté Stallworth was never a weekly starter, but he was relevant for an extended period of time.
- The Bad: Tavon Austin flamed out immediately after entering the league, and Titus Young only played two years.
Marquise Brown’s 2020 fantasy football outlook
The comps of Kirk and Lockett — and, cheating a bit, throwing in Hilton too — make Brown a player to keep an eye on in 2020. There’s certainly a risk he’ll be overdrafted, but he will undoubtedly put up some monster numbers at least a couple of times next season.
With unanimous league MVP Lamar Jackson under center, Brown’s 2020 should be fruitful, but consistency will be the challenge once again. As a low-volume player that relies on big plays, Brown is a better Best Ball play than a redraft option, but he’s among the best “go big or go home” flex options in redraft. More consistency would vault Brown into fantasy WR3 territory.
- Fantasy points over expectation. (back)