PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Matt Jones
March 3, 2020

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies.

Expected Birdies - Arnold Palmer Invitational

Name	Salary	BOB Score
Rory McIlroy	11800	100
Scottie Scheffler	7700	98
Hideki Matsuyama	10600	95
Collin Morikawa	8400	94
Tommy Fleetwood	11000	92
Bryson DeChambeau	10400	92
Brooks Koepka	9200	92
Maverick McNealy	7400	92
Adam Scott	9700	91
Sungjae Im	9500	91
Jason Day	9100	90
Sebastian Munoz	6900	90
Viktor Hovland	8000	89
Justin Rose	9000	89
Doc Redman	6300	89
Xander Schauffele	10000	88
Tony Finau	8900	88
Wyndham Clark	7700	88
Rickie Fowler	9300	87
Denny McCarthy	6500	87
Steve Stricker	6100	86
Patrick Reed	9400	85
Harry Higgs	6700	85
J.T. Poston	7600	85
Bubba Watson	8300	85
Sam Ryder	6400	85
Billy Horschel	8000	84
Abraham Ancer	7800	84
Lanto Griffin	6800	84
Henrik Stenson	8800	83
Vaughn Taylor	7200	83
Scott Piercy	7300	83
Rory Sabbatini	6700	83
Ryan Moore	7400	83
Kevin Na	7300	83
Phil Mickelson	7900	83
Joel Dahmen	7300	82
Marc Leishman	8600	82
Harris English	7400	82
Lee Westwood	8200	82
Joaquin Niemann	7500	82
Jason Kokrak	7200	82
Cameron Champ	6900	82
Nick Taylor	6700	81
Tyrrell Hatton	8100	81
Matthew NeSmith	6800	81
Carlos Ortiz	7100	81
Byeong Hun An	8700	81
Andrew Putnam	6700	81
Talor Gooch	7000	81
Tom Hoge	7000	81
Nate Lashley	6400	81
Charl Schwartzel	7500	81
Emiliano Grillo	7100	81
Harold Varner III	7100	81
Corey Conners	6900	81
J.B. Holmes	7400	81
Keith Mitchell	6600	81
Bud Cauley	7400	80
Kevin Streelman	7000	80
Rafa Cabrera Bello	7600	80
Charles Howell III	7200	80
Lucas Glover	7300	80
Stewart Cink	6400	80
Sam Burns	6600	80
Keegan Bradley	7000	80
Charley Hoffman	6500	80
Hank Lebioda	6000	80
Ian Poulter	7600	79
Brian Harman	7000	79
Max Homa	7900	79
Matt Jones	6700	79
Kevin Tway	6200	79
Pat Perez	6400	79
Patrick Rodgers	6600	79
Zach Johnson	6600	79
Beau Hossler	6600	79
Danny Lee	6500	79
Jimmy Walker	6400	79
Kevin Kisner	7800	78
Matthew Fitzpatrick	8500	78
Henrik Norlander	6400	78
Dylan Frittelli	6500	78
Kevin Chappell	6200	78
Robby Shelton	6300	78
Xinjun ZHANG	6200	77
Russell Knox	7200	77
Matthew Wolff	7100	77
Troy Merritt	6200	77
Brendan Steele	7500	77
Matt Every	6300	77
Mark Hubbard	6500	76
Adam Long	6700	76
Graeme McDowell	6900	76
Francesco Molinari	7200	76
Brian Stuard	6500	75
Scott Harrington	6000	75
Danny Willett	6800	74
Tyler Duncan	6300	74
Sung Kang	6800	74
Anirban Lahiri	6100	74
Sam Saunders	6200	74
Scott Brown	6300	73
Si Woo Kim	6200	73
Rob Oppenheim	6100	72
Brendon Todd	6900	71
Brian Gay	6200	71
Zac Blair	6100	71
Padraig Harrington	6100	71
Vijay Singh	6000	71
Cheng Tsung Pan	6100	70
Alex Noren	7300	70
Davis Love III	6100	70
Jim Herman	6000	68
Jazz Janewattananond	6600	66
Matt Wallace	6800	21
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	7100	15
Robert Gamez	6000	4
Chun An Yu	6300	0
Brandon Matthews	6000	0
Rod Perry	6000	0

Standouts

Rory McIlroy ($11,800) continues to destroy everything in his path. He’s 0.8 strokes per round clear of the field according to the Raw Power Ranking Score. McIlroy has the second-best Expected Birdies score, too, as the cherry on the top.

Collin Morikawa ($8,400) and Scottie Scheffler ($7,700) both seem a bit underpriced relative to their ceiling. Morikawa comes in with his made-cut streak intact. He’s made 21 starts on tour since the start of 2018 with a win, a runner-up and four other finishes inside of the top 10. Scheffler opened the year with some strong finishes before missing a couple of cuts in a row. His last two finishes have wound up in the top 30 and he seems to be trending back in the right direction.

Let this serve as your weekly reminder that Maverick McNealy ($7,400) should be in consideration until further notice. He’s climbing the PRK each and every week and continues to show upside. McNealy is up to 11 straight cuts now, with a T11 last week at a difficult track.

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