PGA DFS: Rory McIlroy is Still Too Cheap for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Image Credit: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Rory McIlroy.

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at how each golfer in the field fits the course, check out yesterday’s Expected Birdies piece. 

Buy or Sell

According to the simulator, Rory McIlroy ($11,800) should be in consideration despite his hefty price tag. His median projected finish position is 11th.1 His raw Power Ranking score is so far ahead of the rest of the field that there isn’t another golfer with a score above 90. In 11 of his last 13 events, McIlroy has finished inside of the top nine. 

Francesco Molinari ($7,200) is the easiest sell of the season. He’s been atrocious lately, to be quite honest. Three of his last four events have been missed cuts. Molinari’s only made cut in that stretch came in the no-cut event down in Mexico. 

 

Over/Under

Check out this week’s Bogey Free for our over/under picks:

  • Adam Scott ($9,700) – o/u 14.5 
  • Jason Day ($9,100) – o/u 23.5
  • Marc Leishman ($8,600) – o/u 31.5

Mid-Range Matchup

Max Homa (-102 / $7,900) vs. Kevin Kisner (-118 / $7,800)

Homa and Kisner are about as close as you can get whether you look at Expected Birdies or PRK Score. Homa holds the slight edge with Expected Birdies while Kisner is ahead in PRK. The simulator is built on PRK and career scoring volatility so the results there lean pretty heavily towards Kisner. My gut instinct was to go with Homa, but I’m definitely leaning towards Kisner now. 

GPP Plays

As of this writing, I haven’t done the first run of ownership projections. However, I’m imagining that Tommy Fleetwood ($11,000) is going to go under-owned relative to his range of outcomes. Fleetwood was a wet approach shot away from forcing a playoff with Sungjae Im on Sunday. He also has the second-best PRK Score this week with an 87. Historically, golfers in the 80-90 PRK Range have finished in the top 10 about 20% of the time. The simulator likes him even more. It has the Englishman finishing in the top 20 43% of the time. 

Friendly reminder, that I mentioned Scottie Scheffler ($7,700) and Maverick McNealy ($7,400) along with Colin Morikawa ($8,400) in the Expected Birdies piece yesterday.

Digging down a little bit deeper there are plenty of dart throws in the $6,000 range. Matthew NeSmith ($6,800) continues to play well week in and week out. He had a dreadful week with the putter but was 15th in SG: Tee to Green. Sebastian Munoz ($6,900) is rating highly in the PRK Score this week, also. Both NeSmith and Munoz are in the 70-80 range of PRK. Historically, golfers in that group hit the DK bonus2 52% of the time. 

Cash Locks

The cash locks for this week are:

  • Collin Morikawa ($8,400)
  • Scottie Scheffler ($7,700)

We had our first winner of the year in the cash lock section with Sungjae Im. Here are the year-to-date results for the cash locks:

Model Results & Ownership Projections - Arnold Palmer Invitational

I've included tee times, also. I typically don't care about tee times but there does seem to be a potential advantage for golfers teeing off in the morning Thursday. I'm treating it as more of a tie-breaker than a strict rule.
NameSalaryPRK_ScoreOwnership ProjectionTee Time
Rory McIlroy1180010027.187:54:00 AM
Tommy Fleetwood1100087.515.2812:10:00 PM
Hideki Matsuyama1060087.0315.1812:10:00 PM
Bryson DeChambeau1040083.4421.5812:56:00 PM
Xander Schauffele1000081.4118.3812:56:00 PM
Adam Scott970084.6914.488:06:00 AM
Sungjae Im950079.2213.4812:44:00 PM
Patrick Reed940082.511.4812:56:00 PM
Rickie Fowler930079.3811.6812:44:00 PM
Brooks Koepka920080.1614.988:06:00 AM
Jason Day910078.288.088:06:00 AM
Justin Rose900079.5311.187:54:00 AM
Tony Finau890081.4112.087:31:00 AM
Henrik Stenson880079.2218.687:20:00 AM
Byeong Hun An870074.2214.8811:47:00 AM
Marc Leishman860075.9415.6812:44:00 PM
Matthew Fitzpatrick850072.3410.788:29:00 AM
Collin Morikawa840080.1615.587:43:00 AM
Bubba Watson830069.699.0812:33:00 PM
Lee Westwood820072.036.088:17:00 AM
Tyrrell Hatton810078.2816.387:08:00 AM
Viktor Hovland800086.567.1812:10:00 PM
Billy Horschel800079.5312.387:43:00 AM
Max Homa790071.728.887:43:00 AM
Phil Mickelson790062.343.3812:56:00 PM
Kevin Kisner780072.668.087:54:00 AM
Abraham Ancer780077.6619.481:07:00 PM
Scottie Scheffler770082.3413.7811:35:00 AM
Wyndham Clark770071.569.581:07:00 PM
Rafa Cabrera Bello760069.847.088:17:00 AM
J.T. Poston760076.564.9812:44:00 PM
Ian Poulter760073.599.3812:21:00 PM
Joaquin Niemann750070.947.187:43:00 AM
Charl Schwartzel750068.443.586:45:00 AM
Brendan Steele750064.692.1812:33:00 PM
Harris English740075.164.4811:35:00 AM
Bud Cauley740075.311.788:29:00 AM
Ryan Moore740074.224.188:29:00 AM
Maverick McNealy740072.59.388:40:00 AM
J.B. Holmes740063.753.1812:21:00 PM
Scott Piercy730074.692.387:31:00 AM
Lucas Glover730069.384.6812:56:00 PM
Joel Dahmen730076.252.8811:58:00 AM
Alex Noren7300684.188:29:00 AM
Kevin Na730074.068.787:20:00 AM
Charles Howell III720069.532.6812:33:00 PM
Vaughn Taylor720078.912.2811:47:00 AM
Jason Kokrak720069.383.081:07:00 PM
Russell Knox720073.281.3812:21:00 PM
Francesco Molinari720063.2814.287:54:00 AM
Emiliano Grillo710068.123.586:45:00 AM
Christiaan Bezuidenhout710047.52.286:57:00 AM
Carlos Ortiz710075.167.188:29:00 AM
Harold Varner III710067.972.987:08:00 AM
Matthew Wolff710067.971.987:31:00 AM
Keegan Bradley700063.282.6812:10:00 PM
Kevin Streelman700074.381.287:08:00 AM
Talor Gooch700070.944.586:45:00 AM
Tom Hoge700070.620.988:29:00 AM
Brian Harman700072.52.9811:47:00 AM
Graeme McDowell690064.061.4812:33:00 PM
Sebastian Munoz690075.316.6812:10:00 PM
Corey Conners690066.414.287:31:00 AM
Brendon Todd690066.250.988:17:00 AM
Cameron Champ690063.444.1812:44:00 PM
Danny Willett680061.251.787:31:00 AM
Lanto Griffin680071.883.887:20:00 AM
Sung Kang680058.131.487:20:00 AM
Matthew NeSmith680077.196.181:19:00 PM
Matt Wallace680066.562.188:17:00 AM
Harry Higgs670081.723.7811:58:00 AM
Adam Long670066.094.288:06:00 AM
Andrew Putnam670072.970.887:31:00 AM
Rory Sabbatini670074.381.7811:58:00 AM
Nick Taylor670078.751.7812:33:00 PM
Matt Jones670070.940.986:57:00 AM
Patrick Rodgers660066.257.181:07:00 PM
Beau Hossler660064.380.9811:47:00 AM
Zach Johnson660065.621.287:43:00 AM
Jazz Janewattananond660047.51.3811:58:00 AM
Sam Burns660066.090.986:57:00 AM
Keith Mitchell660060.941.6812:10:00 PM
Charley Hoffman650060.940.887:08:00 AM
Mark Hubbard650068.911.986:57:00 AM
Danny Lee650061.720.586:45:00 AM
Dylan Frittelli650065.620.5812:21:00 PM
Brian Stuard650069.690.5811:47:00 AM
Denny McCarthy650074.221.4811:47:00 AM
Henrik Norlander640068.590.21:19:00 PM
Stewart Cink640068.750.3812:44:00 PM
Nate Lashley640070.160.412:21:00 PM
Pat Perez640066.720.37:20:00 AM
Jimmy Walker640059.690.387:54:00 AM
Sam Ryder640066.560.886:45:00 AM
Matt Every630058.590.781:07:00 PM
Scott Brown630056.720.27:08:00 AM
Chun An Yu63003108:40:00 AM
Robby Shelton630062.660.8811:58:00 AM
Doc Redman630074.692.3811:35:00 AM
Tyler Duncan630060.620.27:54:00 AM
Sam Saunders620044.530.6811:35:00 AM
Kevin Chappell620063.751.0812:21:00 PM
Brian Gay620061.880.211:35:00 AM
Kevin Tway620068.590.7812:56:00 PM
Troy Merritt620067.190.28:17:00 AM
Si Woo Kim620051.720.28:17:00 AM
Xinjun ZHANG6200611.187:08:00 AM
Padraig Harrington610050.310.16:57:00 AM
Rob Oppenheim610066.091.088:40:00 AM
Steve Stricker610070.1607:43:00 AM
Anirban Lahiri610055.780.111:58:00 AM
Zac Blair610061.720.21:07:00 PM
Davis Love III610049.0608:06:00 AM
C.T. Pan6100550.27:20:00 AM
Scott Harrington600058.130.16:57:00 AM
Rod Perry600000.11:19:00 PM
Hank Lebioda600057.030.11:19:00 PM
Jim Herman6000450.112:33:00 PM
Brandon Matthews6000290.181:19:00 PM
Vijay Singh600047.190.18:06:00 AM
Robert Gamez600013.440.11:19:00 PM
  1. For reference, the next best median finish position is 26th place for one Viktor Hovland.  (back)
  2. top-50 finish  (back)
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