Shawn Siegele takes you through his FFPC best ball draft and uses the Roster Construction Explorer to find moves that will help you crush your league.
Jack Miller ran a staff mock recently, and he’s going to have a flurry of great content for you. If you’ve been reading Jack this summer, you know that won’t be one to miss. Until then, I wanted to run through my picks and demonstrate the uncanny power of the Roster Construction Explorer. Check out the evidence, and see why the RotoViz best ball tools will return many times your subscription price in 2020.
The Early Rounds
1.01 Christian McCaffrey
It doesn’t take any skill to draft McCaffrey at the 1.01. He’s the best player in fantasy football by a wide margin. But perhaps we shouldn’t get too cocky. Although the top half of the first round has much higher win rates than the bottom half, the 1.01 has lagged behind. David Johnson in 2017 and Saquon Barkley in 2019 both posted win rates below 5.0%, more than cancelling out Todd Gurley’s big 2018. In fact, five of the nine earliest drafted RBs fall below this 5.0% mark.
2.12 Zach Ertz
Due to TE premium scoring and the dominance of elite tight ends in almost all formats, the studs absolutely torch FFPC best ball leagues.
The dark green from 1.05 to 3.09 is overwhelming, and Ertz is undervalued as a specific target. As Colm and I recently discussed on Overtime, his recent production is even better than you think, while 2020 could be the year he breaks all the TE records.
3.01 Aaron Jones
Jones’ ADP of RB13 overstates the damage from TD regression and the threat from A.J. Dillon. The Range of Outcomes tool projects him at RB5, trailing only McCaffrey, Barkley, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry.
Moving from player selection to draft tactics, we can ask the Roster Construction Explorer how this three-round start fared over the last three years?
RB1 in Round 1, TE1 and RB2 Before Round 4
It’s hard to do much better than this. Our win rate is above 11%, our top-six percentage is above 55%, and we have a lot of flexibility with our approach at wide receiver. We’re off to a great start, but it pales compared to what the Roster Construction Explorer can teach us the rest of the way.
Several of these visuals are taken from the new Best Ball Win Rate Explorer. It provides separate features for player win rates, positional heat maps, stack analyses and more. For more detail on what it can do for you, check out The Win Rate Explorer is Here and the Features Are Insane.