Game Environment Week 14: Russ, Rodgers, and Ryan … Oh My!
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Image Credit: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.

Welcome to the game environment series. This series provides several weekly games to target and fade, based on macro-level factors that impact fantasy production. For more on these factors, click here. We recommend using this in conjunction with our micro-level analysis, including the buy low report, the strength in numbers series, our quarterback, kicker, tight end, and defense streaming articles, and the slate of DFS analysis we provide.

Week 13 Review

Targets

Rams @ Cardinals
Colts @ Texans
Giants @ Seahawks

Low-owned Game Stack

Eagles @ Packers

The Week 13 targets mostly hit, with the notable exception of the Giants’ grinding win over the Seahawks. The Rams and Cardinals combined for 66 points, though the fantasy production was spread out, and Dan Arnold had a classic “this helps no one” two-touchdown day. The Colts-Texans and Eagles-Packers both combined for 46 points, but concentrated fantasy production made each game fruitful for both season-long and DFS players.

Fades

Saints @ Falcons
Jaguars @ Vikings
Browns @ Titans

The fade list had a rough week, as Vegas’ highest-total on the week made sense roughly five minutes into the Browns-Titans shootout, eliminating any concerns about pace. The Jaguars were able to get out to a lead on the Vikings on a tipped touchdown score, increasing pace and play volume even before a long overtime period. More on how the Vikings play while trailing later. The Saints-Falcons was a low-scoring environment, but concentrated production elevated the fantasy-relevant players to solid performances. On to Week 14.

The Game Environment – Week 14

Week 14 average total: 47.5 points
Week 13 average total: 47.2 points
Week 12 average total: 48.8 points
Week 11 average total: 49.0 points
Week 10 average total: 49.2 points
Week 9 average total: 48.6 points
Week 8 average total: 47.8 points
Week 7 average total: 50.2 points
Week 6 average total: 50.5 points
Week 5 average total: 50.4 points
Week 4 average total: 49.7 points
Week 3 average total: 47.5 points
Week 2 average total: 46 points

Week 14 Context:

While week 13 was difficult to project, week 14 looks to be one of the best weeks since early in the season. There are six games I’d like to target, and that doesn’t even include the Chiefs and their 28.25 implied points total. The average total for week 14 is modest, but multiple low-total games that we want to fade are dragging that down. With the season-long playoffs starting for many of you, this should be an exciting week.

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