Shawn Siegele shows you how to bake in upside and draft a dynasty team with exploding long-term trade value as he explores the most important round of a superflex startup.
Sam Wallace and I are involved in a duel to the fantasy death as we draft against each other in a dynasty superflex mock. We alternate picks. He gets six teams, I get six, and we’re looking to put together the best overall rosters.
Round 1 was a QB extravaganza. Round 2 featured a run on the rising superstars at WR, while Round 3 offered a contrast in styles.
Now we get into an area where owners can distance themselves from the pack through a wide range of decisions.
- Do you grab the veteran values?
- When do you start loading up on RBs?
- Can you execute the trade down and pick up more value?
- Do you have a plan in place to create the Permanent Championship Window?
Sam focused on trading back in his breakdown, so I’m going to look at how focusing on scenarios can help you build a team with explosive upside.
Scenario-Based Drafting
A key exercise before any dynasty draft is to work through the various 2021 scenarios for all of your potential targets. We know that players at different ages and different positions have different trade-value trajectories. These likely future values are sometimes recognized in the current price but often they aren’t, or aren’t fully.
In working through various scenarios, you won’t always be right about which ones are most likely or how the market will respond, but you can work to understand how you would value a player in 2022 depending on whether that player has a good, bad, or mediocre 2021. Working through that process will often turn up undervalued draft options. As I explore my six picks in Round 4, I’ll be looking for opportunities to land immediate points, while also buying players who will be worth more on the trade market next year.
4.01 – CHRIS GODWIN
Godwin missed four games with multiple injuries and played at far less than 100% most of the way, making him a difficult evaluation heading into 2021. But here’s a surprising note: despite those absences and limitations, he still finished No. 8 overall at the position in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE.)
If we also include his epic 2019, only A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs have created more excess value over the last two years.
Davante Adams is a first-round redraft selection after a touchdown-fueled WR1 campaign, and yet he still trails Godwin in FPOE with the same number of games played.
Given Godwin’s ability to play through injuries and considering he only turns 25 this week, there’s a good chance he’s still the player who finished as the overall WR2 in 2019. That player dominated with a unique mix of vertical and run-after-catch ability.
Godwin finished No. 5 in yards after the catch that season, and he was heavily targeted at all target depths. (Such a target pattern was the key to Stefon Diggs’ emergence in 2020 and exactly what we covet in fantasy stars.) He flashed his ability to get behind the defense by finishing among the league leaders in receiving yards to the deep middle and deep right.
Whether Godwin spends another year in the explosive Buccaneers offense or moves on to be a clear alpha receiver in free agency, he’s set up with scenarios that position him among the WR elite.
4.02 – ANTONIO GIBSON
Gibson has been a crazy value in early best ball drafts. Check out how Blair Andrews and I used the Best Ball Command Center to land Gibson and 10 Other Extreme Values.
