Superflex Dynasty Mock: 2021 Brings Big Surprises and Key Changes in Round 1
Image Credit: John Byrum/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey.

Shawn Siegele and Sam Wallace flex their dynasty draft muscles in a friendly competition to select the best 2021 superflex startup rosters.

With the 2020 regular season completed, dynasty startup season is just around the corner. In the Dynasty Draft-Off series, Sam Wallace and I have created a fun exercise to see who can craft the best lineups. We’ll alternate picks. Sam has the six teams with odd picks in Round 1. I have the evens. We’re not just focusing on the best picks but trying to create the best teams.

Throughout the mock we’ll debate our picks, make the case for our selections, analyze draft tactics, and discuss team construction. In the process, we’ll attack the key dynasty questions for the 2021 offseason.

Join Sam and me as we debate players and discuss tactics in the 2021 Dynasty Draft-Off. As always, our dynasty content is geared to helping you create the Permanent Championship Window.

As the Draft-Off begins with a breakdown of Round 1, let’s pull up the 2020 FFPC Superflex startup ADP.

A couple of quick notes:

  • Six QBs were selected in the first 13 picks, and a second tier went off the board early in Round 3.
  • Three of the first five picks were RBs, and that position accounted for half of the first round.
  • Michael Thomas was the only WR to make an appearance in Round 1, and only four more WRs went in Round 2. Even the third round demonstrated little WR enthusiasm.

We’re not including 2021 rookies in this startup, but the world famous Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide goes deeper than any other fantasy source. Pre-order yours today.

Round 1

1.01 Patrick Mahomes

1.02 Kyler Murray

At 23 years old and offering the best combination of rushing and passing value, Murray offers the most upside of any fantasy asset. He’s also the riskiest player to go in the top five.

Murray entered the Week 11 contest with Seattle averaging 32.4 points per game. He injured his shoulder against the Seahawks and scored only 19.3 the rest of the way.

Although it obviously limited his effectiveness both as a passer and rusher, Murray downplayed the injury, and it wasn’t the only cause of his decline. According to our advanced strength of schedule tool, Murray faced the third-easiest schedule through 10 weeks but the NFL’s hardest schedule over those final seven games.

This unfortunate confluence of events led to a staggering decline in efficiency.

Player EP FPOE PaEP PaFPOE ruEP ruFPOE
Week 1-10 22.8 9.6 15.9 3 6.8 6.6
Week 11-17 21.7 -2.4 17.2 -1.8 4.5 -0.6

Over the first 10 weeks, Murray averaged more expected fantasy points as a rusher (ruFPOE) than Lamar Jackson. With his blinding speed, he managed to more than double the expected outcome, scoring a total of 13.3 PPG solely as a ball carrier. During the late-season collapse, those rushing points dried up. His ruEP dropped to 4.5 and he underperformed even that.

Overall, Murray went from averaging 9.6 fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) to underperforming his volume by 2.4 PPG. To create a split where Murray lost 13 PPG, we can guess that he struggled in all categories. Though he passed a little more frequently, his total EP also dropped by a point.

The 2020 season raised plenty of questions about the Cardinals’ overall tactics and Kliff Kingsbury’s ability as a game manager. Their lack of creativity in deploying DeAndre Hopkins also threw up red flags. Arizona has work to do in the offseason, but Murray’s upside is too enticing to ignore.

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Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

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