Quarterbacks are being drafted earlier than ever, making it essential we do our homework at the position. In a study I did last June, I found that quarterbacks generally score more points when they are favored. Specifically, they perform best when they are slight favorites (3.5 to 6.5 points), followed by clear favorites (-7 or better), then in toss-ups (-3 to +3), as slight underdogs (+3.5 to +6.5), and perform worst as clear underdogs (+7 or worse).
Much will change before the start of the 2021 season, but by using Vegas lines, we can determine which quarterbacks hit the schedule lottery and which will be facing an uphill road.
Quarterbacks to Avoid
The Jets, Lions, and Texans (assuming Deshaun Watson does not play) are fairly obvious fades, and the ADP of their respective quarterbacks are low. Instead of these quarterbacks, let’s take a look at a few guys with higher ADPs.